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2026-W34

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-17 02:01:26 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 14% (1 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β€” Strong divergence β€” structural signals broadly disagree with price

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” DIX 0.469 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.07 balanced
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT GEX +15.2B strong suppression
Breadth 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Breadth 71% β€” broad participation supports rally
Energy 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Energy STABLE β€” no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED Copper/Gold -3.9% growth pessimism Β· real yield 2.39% restrictive
Correlations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” SPY/VIX -0.53 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.14 normal, SPY/TNX -0.44 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.67 stretched
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 14.2 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 138 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 6.14 dealer fear
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Stagflation score 18 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT USD/JPY 5d +0.1% stable, MOVE 70 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β€” hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT HY OAS 2.71% moderate, NFCI -0.549 loose

Divergence read: Strong divergence β€” gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 7 signals refuse to confirm the decline β€” reversal risk if structure holds.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 86/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.469; GEX positive at 15.2B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $775.98 | 50 SMA $748.93 | 200 SMA $705.46 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $755.95
  • QQQ: $730.85 | 50 SMA $712.95 | 200 SMA $650.62 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $718.94
  • IWM: $304.90 | 50 SMA $295.10 | 200 SMA $268.55 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $281.0
  • VIX: 14.25 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.696%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $775.98 75.15 55.5 $755.95 Neutral 0.61
QQQ $730.85 70.52 60.4 $718.94 Neutral 0.57
IWM $304.90 67.58 27.3 $281.00 Neutral 0.52

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 14.25 31.40 50.9 $10.50 Bearish 1.63
TNX 46.96 β–Ό 55.28 40.7 - - -
GLD $401.84 71.08 27.5 $380.99 Bearish 0.40
DXY 99.67 24.01 30.0 - - -
SLV $58.65 69.47 11.2 $42.00 Bearish 0.32

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.469
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 15.19B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.98%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.51% (Healthy slope)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 70.6%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 73.9%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 411
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 41.2%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Energy 94.7% 0/0
Financials 84.5% 0/0
Communication Services 83.3% 0/0
Health Care 82.9% 0/0
Consumer Staples 82.1% 0/0
Industrials 75.5% 0/0
Materials 73.7% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 64.6% 0/0
Technology 63.2% 0/0
Real Estate 34.8% 0/0
Utilities 29.2% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: STABLE
  • WTI Crude: $82.40 (5d: +0.3%)
  • Brent Crude: $88.52 | Spread: $6.12
  • RBOB Gasoline: $2.9000/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.1600/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.04/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $61.91
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $9.92

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.527 elevated
SPY / DXY -0.142 normal
SPY / TNX -0.438 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.672 stretched

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.58
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.07 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $548.6B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $765 | Put Wall: $780 (Spot: $775.98)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
  • Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -3.2% (as of 2026-08-12)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.70%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.00 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.67
  • Growth vs Value: 0.94
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.24% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.27%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.30%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6760.0B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $964.0B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,796B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,855B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,044B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,695B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,446 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] Leading indicator divergence: 3/5 leading signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β€” historically precedes repricing within 3-5 days.
  • [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 6/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β€” structural repricing risk elevated.
  • [WARNING] VVIX/VIX ratio at 6.1 β€” vol-of-vol outpacing VIX, uncertainty about uncertainty rising.
  • [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β€” normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.469, GEX +15.2B, HY OAS 2.71%, breadth 71%.
  • [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β€” systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~244h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~100h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~76h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: August
  • Average Return: +0.42%
  • Median Return: +1.41%
  • Hit Rate: 65%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Retail Sales: 660047.0 | Prev: 665054.0

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑8.1% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.4% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (25):

[1] Sweden inflation expectations take focus ahead of Riksbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/sweden-inflation-expectations-take-focus-ahead-of-riksbank-202608170555 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 05:55:45 GMT

[2] British Pound gathers strength above 1.3550 as softer US data cools Fed hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-gathers-strength-above-13550-as-softer-us-data-cools-fed-hike-bets-202608170552 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 05:52:11 GMT

[3] Growth divergence across CEE URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/growth-divergence-across-cee-202608170551 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 05:51:52 GMT

[4] Solana Price Forecast: SOL holds above $75 as ETF inflows lift bulls URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/solana-price-forecast-sol-holds-above-75-as-etf-inflows-lift-bulls-202608170546 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 05:46:01 GMT

[5] Indonesian Rupiah strengthens amid Prabowo's growth target, weaker US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesian-rupiah-strengthens-amid-prabowos-growth-target-weaker-us-dollar-202608170545 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 05:45:10 GMT

[6] Cryptocurrencies Price Prediction: Cardano, Bitcoin & Ethereum - Asian Wrap 17 August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-cardano-bitcoin-ethereum-asian-wrap-17-august-202608170538 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 05:38:19 GMT

[7] USD/JPY Price Forecast: Struggles near 159.00; seems vulnerable below 50% Fibo. URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-struggles-near-15900-seems-vulnerable-below-50-fibo-202608170537 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 05:37:45 GMT

[8] Saudi Arabia Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/saudi-arabia-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608170505 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 05:05:22 GMT

[9] Euro rallies to two-month high, eyes 1.1600 as USD struggles amid receding Fed hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-rallies-to-two-month-high-eyes-11600-as-usd-struggles-amid-receding-fed-hike-bets-202608170502 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 05:02:11 GMT

[10] Philippines Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/philippines-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608170500 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 05:00:08 GMT

[11] EUR/USD to 1.1600? GBP/USD and AUD/USD test resist [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-usd-to-11600-gbp-usd-and-aud-usd-test-resist-video-202608170457 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 04:57:36 GMT

[12] Cardano Price Forecast: Whale selling, weak momentum put ADA at risk URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cardano-price-forecast-whale-selling-weak-momentum-put-ada-at-risk-202608170456 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 04:56:43 GMT

[13] United Arab Emirates Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-arab-emirates-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608170455 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 04:55:37 GMT

[14] Japan Capacity Utilization climbed from previous 0.1% to 4.1% in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-capacity-utilization-climbed-from-previous-01-to-41-in-june-202608170452 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 04:52:18 GMT

[15] Japan Industrial Production (YoY) increased to 4.9% in June from previous 4.2% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-industrial-production-yoy-increased-to-49-in-june-from-previous-42-202608170452 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 04:52:03 GMT

[16] Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) above forecasts (-1%) in June: Actual (-0.2%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-tertiary-industry-index-mom-above-forecasts-1-in-june-actual-02-202608170451 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 04:51:12 GMT

[17] Japan Industrial Production (MoM) registered at 1.9% above expectations (1.3%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-industrial-production-mom-registered-at-19-above-expectations-13-in-june-202608170450 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 04:50:48 GMT

[18] AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Edges higher above 113.00, bullish bias prevails above 100-day SMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-jpy-price-forecast-edges-higher-above-11300-bullish-bias-prevails-above-100-day-sma-202608170447 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 04:47:13 GMT

[19] Pakistan Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pakistan-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608170445 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 04:45:09 GMT

[20] Indian Rupee steadies as US Dollar declines on reducing Fed rate hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-holds-ground-despite-rbi-ending-fcnr-forex-swap-window-early-202608170440 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 04:40:31 GMT

[21] Morning briefing: Euro is headed towards 1.1600 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/morning-briefing-euro-is-headed-towards-11600-202608170437 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 04:37:41 GMT

[22] India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608170435 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 04:35:35 GMT

[23] Malaysia Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/malaysia-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608170432 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 04:32:42 GMT

[24] Gold sticks to modest gains around $4,400 amid weaker USD; remains below June 5 high URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-remains-close-to-june-5-high-as-receding-fed-hike-bets-undermine-usd-202608170427 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 04:27:42 GMT

[25] Crypto Market Overview: Bitcoin holds at $63,000 - WLD, WLFI lead gains URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-market-overview-bitcoin-holds-at-63-000-wld-wlfi-lead-gains-202608170414 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 04:14:24 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (4):

[1] Iran lawmaker apologizes for insulting Mahsa Amini Time: 2026-08-17T05:39:41.389Z

[2] Yemen government forces target Houthi positions in Al Jawf Time: 2026-08-17T04:59:33.961Z

[3] Inflation growth slows in Iran, government official says Time: 2026-08-17T04:51:27.371Z

[4] Iran VP says sanctions fuel shadow oil trade, fraud and vested interests Time: 2026-08-17T03:54:00.000Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 170 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily β€” 1.7% of normal
  • Throughput: 1.5% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 449
  • Oil Prices: Brent $93.26 (+0.56%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 50.0x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS350 (+600% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost