Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-17 00:01:09 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 14% (1 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.469 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.07 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +15.2B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 71% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -3.9% growth pessimism Β· real yield 2.39% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.55 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.10 normal, SPY/TNX -0.41 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.63 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 14.2 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 138 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 6.14 dealer fear |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.1% stable, MOVE 70 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.71% moderate, NFCI -0.549 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 7 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 86/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.469; GEX positive at 15.2B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $775.98 | 50 SMA $748.93 | 200 SMA $705.46 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $755.95
- QQQ: $730.85 | 50 SMA $712.95 | 200 SMA $650.62 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $718.94
- IWM: $304.90 | 50 SMA $295.10 | 200 SMA $268.55 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $281.0
- VIX: 14.25 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.696%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $775.98 | 75.15 | 55.5 | $755.95 | Neutral | 0.61 |
| QQQ | $730.85 | 70.52 | 60.4 | $718.94 | Neutral | 0.57 |
| IWM | $304.90 | 67.58 | 27.3 | $281.00 | Neutral | 0.52 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.25 | 31.40 | 50.9 | $10.50 | Bearish | 1.63 |
| TNX | 46.96 βΌ | 55.28 | 40.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $401.84 | 71.08 | 27.5 | $380.99 | Bearish | 0.40 |
| DXY | 99.67 | 24.01 | 30.0 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $58.65 | 69.47 | 11.2 | $42.00 | Bearish | 0.32 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.469
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 15.19B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.98%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.51% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 70.6%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 73.9%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 411
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.2%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 94.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 84.5% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 83.3% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 82.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 82.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 75.5% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 73.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 64.6% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 63.2% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 34.8% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 29.2% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $82.40 (5d: +0.3%)
- Brent Crude: $88.52 | Spread: $6.12
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9000/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.1600/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.04/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $61.91
- UNG (Nat Gas): $9.92
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.545 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.103 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.405 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.631 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.58
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.07 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $548.6B
- Gamma Call Wall: $780 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $775.98)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -3.2% (as of 2026-08-12)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.70%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.00 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.67
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.24% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.27%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.30%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6760.0B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $964.0B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,796B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,855B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,044B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,695B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,386 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~244h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~100h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~76h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~76h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: naaim_exposure has printed the same value (79.7) for 13 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is weekly (~5 trading day(s); freeze bar 10). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 24 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: acm_term_premium_10y has printed the same value (0.83) for 5 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 87 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_max_pain has printed the same value (735.0) for 33 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.42%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Retail Sales: 660047.0 | Prev: 665054.0
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β8.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β17.4% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (β4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (8):
[1] EUR/USD rally meets a crucial barrier with bulls on watch URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-usd-rally-meets-a-crucial-barrier-with-bulls-on-watch-202608170359 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 03:59:12 GMT
[2] Top 3 Price Prediction: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple - BTC holds critical support, ETH awaits directional move, XRP weakens URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/top-3-price-prediction-bitcoin-ethereum-ripple-btc-holds-critical-support-eth-awaits-directional-move-xrp-weakens-202608170317 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 03:17:31 GMT
[3] EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Tests rising wedge bottom near 184.00 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-price-forecast-tests-rising-wedge-bottom-near-18400-202608170312 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 03:12:47 GMT
[4] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD extends its struggle with $4,400, but bullish bias intact URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-extends-its-struggle-with-4-400-but-bullish-bias-intact-202608170256 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 02:56:04 GMT
[5] United States Dollar Index weakens to near 99.50 as traders push back Fed rate hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-weakens-to-near-9950-as-traders-push-back-fed-rate-hike-bets-202608170254 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 02:54:47 GMT
[6] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD bulls await acceptance above $66.00, 100-day EMA breakout URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-bulls-await-acceptance-above-6600-100-day-ema-breakout-202608170244 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 02:44:11 GMT
[7] Australian Dollar rises on hawkish RBA outlook URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-rises-on-hawkish-rba-outlook-202608170237 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 02:37:01 GMT
[8] Canadian Dollar advances due to softer US Dollar, higher oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-advances-due-to-softer-us-dollar-higher-oil-prices-202608170201 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 02:01:42 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] Iran used 60-day MoU to prepare for wider war - WSJ Time: 2026-08-17T03:10:00.000Z
[2] Iran hardline papers splash bounty for killing or capturing US troops Time: 2026-08-17T02:17:00.000Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 170 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily β 1.7% of normal
- Throughput: 1.0% of normal (0.1M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 487
- Oil Prices: Brent $93.26 (+0.56%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 53.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS320 (+540% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost