Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-17 06:01:22 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 14% (1 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE — Strong divergence — structural signals broadly disagree with price

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	DIX 0.469 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.07 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	GEX +15.2B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Breadth 71% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	Copper/Gold -3.9% growth pessimism · real yield 2.39% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.53 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.14 normal, SPY/TNX -0.44 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.67 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 14.2 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 138 normal · VVIX/VIX 6.14 dealer fear
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Stagflation score 18 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	USD/JPY 5d +0.1% stable, MOVE 70 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	HY OAS 2.71% moderate, NFCI -0.549 loose

Divergence read: Strong divergence — gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 7 signals refuse to confirm the decline — reversal risk if structure holds.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 86/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.469; GEX positive at 15.2B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $775.98 | 50 SMA $748.93 | 200 SMA $705.46 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $755.95
QQQ: $730.85 | 50 SMA $712.95 | 200 SMA $650.62 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $718.94
IWM: $304.90 | 50 SMA $295.10 | 200 SMA $268.55 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $281.0
VIX: 14.25 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.696%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$775.98	75.15	55.5	$755.95	Neutral	0.61
QQQ	$730.85	70.52	60.4	$718.94	Neutral	0.57
IWM	$304.90	67.58	27.3	$281.00	Neutral	0.52

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	14.25	31.40	50.9	$10.50	Bearish	1.63
TNX	46.96 ▼	55.28	40.7	-	-	-
GLD	$401.84	71.08	27.5	$380.99	Bearish	0.40
DXY	99.67	24.01	30.0	-	-	-
SLV	$58.65	69.47	11.2	$42.00	Bearish	0.32

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.469
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 15.19B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.98%
2s10s Spread: 0.51% (Healthy slope)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 70.6%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 73.9%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 411
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.2%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	94.7%	0/0
Financials	84.5%	0/0
Communication Services	83.3%	0/0
Health Care	82.9%	0/0
Consumer Staples	82.1%	0/0
Industrials	75.5%	0/0
Materials	73.7%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	64.6%	0/0
Technology	63.2%	0/0
Real Estate	34.8%	0/0
Utilities	29.2%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $82.40 (5d: +0.3%)
Brent Crude: $88.52 | Spread: $6.12
RBOB Gasoline: $2.9000/gal
Heating Oil: $4.1600/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.04/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $61.91
UNG (Nat Gas): $9.92

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.527	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.142	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.438	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.672	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.58
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.07 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $548.6B
Gamma Call Wall: $780 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $775.98)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -3.2% (as of 2026-08-12)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.70%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.00 (Normal)
DXY: 99.67
Growth vs Value: 0.94
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.24% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.27%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.30%
Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6760.0B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $964.0B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,796B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,855B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,044B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,695B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,244 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] Leading indicator divergence: 3/5 leading signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend — historically precedes repricing within 3-5 days.
[WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 6/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend — structural repricing risk elevated.
[WARNING] VVIX/VIX ratio at 6.1 — vol-of-vol outpacing VIX, uncertainty about uncertainty rising.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.469, GEX +15.2B, HY OAS 2.71%, breadth 71%.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~244h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~100h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~76h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.42%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Retail Sales: 660047.0 | Prev: 665054.0

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑8.1% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.4% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (25):

[1] Strait of Hormuz situation seen by US as 'static' with ability to hold naval blockade 'indefinitely' URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/strait-of-hormuz-situation-seen-by-us-as-static-with-ability-to-hold-naval-blockade-indefinitely-202608170959 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 09:59:52 GMT

[2] US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Bears push against two-month lows at 99.40 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-price-forecast-bears-push-against-two-month-lows-at-9940-202608170956 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 09:56:25 GMT

[3] WTI advances above $82.00 as US-Iran deadlock supports prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-advances-above-8200-as-us-iran-deadlock-supports-prices-202608170952 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 09:52:23 GMT

[4] Swedish Krona: Riksbank seen on cautious hawkish hold - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swedish-krona-riksbank-seen-on-cautious-hawkish-hold-bbh-202608170950 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 09:50:59 GMT

[5] Dow Jones futures decline despite softening Fed rate hike expectations URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-decline-despite-softening-fed-rate-hike-expectations-202608170948 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 09:48:07 GMT

[6] Turkish Lira: Market doubts disinflation and Lira stability - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkish-lira-market-doubts-disinflation-and-lira-stability-commerzbank-202608170942 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 09:42:27 GMT

[7] Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608170931 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 09:31:10 GMT

[8] Japanese Yen: BoJ hike expectations support JPY against US Dollar - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-boj-hike-expectations-support-jpy-against-us-dollar-mufg-202608170930 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 09:30:39 GMT

[9] US Dollar: Losing momentum as fiscal risks rise - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-losing-momentum-as-fiscal-risks-rise-dbs-202608170920 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 09:20:05 GMT

[10] Federal Reserve: Changing communications and higher volatility - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/federal-reserve-changing-communications-and-higher-volatility-td-securities-202608170911 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 09:11:47 GMT

[11] British Pound: Data-heavy week risks BoE repricing - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-data-heavy-week-risks-boe-repricing-ing-202608170903 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 09:03:22 GMT

[12] EUR/USD Price Forecast: Conquers 1.1600 as bulls retain control above 100-SMA, 50% Fibo. URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-conquers-11600-as-bulls-retain-control-above-100-sma-50-fibo-202608170858 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 08:58:11 GMT

[13] Risk-on momentum builds as Dollar weakness supports markets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/risk-on-momentum-builds-as-dollar-weakness-supports-markets-202608170854 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 08:54:03 GMT

[14] Canadian Dollar: CPI and US tariffs weigh on outlook - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-cpi-and-us-tariffs-weigh-on-outlook-bbh-202608170848 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 08:48:40 GMT

[15] The commodities feed: Oil near $90 on escalating Middle East risks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-commodities-feed-oil-near-90-on-escalating-middle-east-risks-202608170848 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 08:48:25 GMT

[16] Pi Network Price Forecast: Downside fears persist as recent gains lack momentum URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/pi-network-price-forecast-downside-fears-persist-as-recent-gains-lack-momentum-202608170845 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 08:45:59 GMT

[17] Polish Zloty: Slow NBP hawkish shift weighs on PLN - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/polish-zloty-slow-nbp-hawkish-shift-weighs-on-pln-commerzbank-202608170840 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 08:40:16 GMT

[18] British Pound hits three-month highs at 1.3570 amid generalised US Dollar weakness URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-hits-three-month-highs-at-13570-amid-generalised-us-dollar-weakness-202608170839 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 08:39:39 GMT

[19] EUR/USD at eight-week high: What happens next URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-usd-at-eight-week-high-what-happens-next-202608170835 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 08:35:21 GMT

[20] Japanese Yen: Downside bias within 158.00-160.20 band against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-downside-bias-within-15800-16020-band-against-us-dollar-uob-202608170831 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 08:31:57 GMT

[21] US Dollar: Softer data challenges resilience - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-softer-data-challenges-resilience-mufg-202608170823 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 08:23:45 GMT

[22] Australian Dollar gains against Japanese Yen despite weak economic data from China URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-gains-against-japanese-yen-despite-weak-economic-data-from-china-202608170819 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 08:19:11 GMT

[23] Brent: Supply risks keep prices elevated - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-supply-risks-keep-prices-elevated-ing-202608170814 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 08:14:53 GMT

[24] Australian Dollar: Solid carry as RBA pause risk grows - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-solid-carry-as-rba-pause-risk-grows-bbh-202608170806 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 08:06:27 GMT

[25] Turkey Budget Balance down to -378.1B in July from previous 114.2B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkey-budget-balance-down-to-3781b-in-july-from-previous-1142b-202608170801 Published: Mon, 17 Aug 2026 08:01:37 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (6):

[1] Iran judiciary chief warns foreign adversaries may undermine unity Time: 2026-08-17T09:36:34.538Z

[2] Pakistan and Turkey back diplomacy to promote regional peace Time: 2026-08-17T08:53:29.670Z

[3] Houthis fire five missiles toward Bab al-Mandab - Al Arabiya Time: 2026-08-17T08:37:02.129Z

[4] Iran dismisses 60-day timeline, accuses US of breaching deal Time: 2026-08-17T08:19:58.868Z

[BREAKING] [5] Iran-launched drones attack Iraqi Kurdish premier's office, officials say Time: 2026-08-17T08:06:43.195Z

[6] Iran presumes three missing military pilots are held captive Time: 2026-08-17T07:47:35.128Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 170 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 13 of 60 normal daily — 22.0% of normal
Throughput: 20.0% of normal (2.1M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 449
Oil Prices: Brent $93.26 (+0.56%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 50.0x normal
Tanker Rates: WS85 (+70% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost