Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-14 08:01:44 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.7% (3d) | Alignment: 88% (7 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.471 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.76 call-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +9.2B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 68% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Copper/Gold -2.2% slowing Β· real yield 2.42% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.56 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.14 normal, SPY/TNX -0.38 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.63 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 14.6 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 134 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 6.11 dealer fear |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 16 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.7% stable, MOVE 69 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.71% moderate, NFCI -0.549 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally β dark pool, gamma, and breadth align with SPY's uptrend (88% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 86/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.471; GEX positive at 9.2B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.6 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $778.16 | 50 SMA $748.12 | 200 SMA $704.50 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $772.68
- QQQ: $732.45 | 50 SMA $713.49 | 200 SMA $649.53 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $720.87
- IWM: $303.67 | 50 SMA $294.52 | 200 SMA $268.01 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $301.34
- VIX: 14.63 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.641%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $778.16 | 75.21 | 55.8 | $772.68 | Bearish | 0.19 |
| QQQ | $732.45 | 63.25 | 62.3 | $720.87 | Bearish | 0.16 |
| IWM | $303.67 | 65.21 | 27.2 | $301.34 | Bearish | 0.42 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.63 | 32.16 | 54.0 | $10.00 | None | None |
| TNX | 46.41 | 47.84 | 36.9 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $399.19 | 78.64 | 28.8 | $377.53 | Bearish | 0.45 |
| DXY | 99.97 | 25.63 | 40.4 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $58.20 | 75.18 | 13.6 | $44.00 | Bearish | 0.38 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.471
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 9.18B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.98%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.48% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 67.7%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 73.2%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 393
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.3%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 88.9% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 86.0% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 85.1% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 80.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 76.9% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 72.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 64.4% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 63.2% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 59.3% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 35.0% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 13.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $81.21 (5d: +3.9%)
- Brent Crude: $86.96 | Spread: $5.75
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8500/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.1200/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.27/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $61.06
- UNG (Nat Gas): $9.97
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.56 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.141 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.382 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.628 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.23
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,568,582.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,482,871.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.76 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $626.3B
- Gamma Call Wall: $780 | Put Wall: $770 (Spot: $778.16)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -27,258 contracts (Z +1.81, as of 2026-08-04)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -3.2% (as of 2026-08-12)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.64%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.94 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.97
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.21% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.24%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.27%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 16/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6760.0B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $964.0B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,796B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,832B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,041B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,668B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,821 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.471, GEX +9.2B, HY OAS 2.71%, breadth 68%.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] VVIX/VIX ratio at 6.1 β vol-of-vol outpacing VIX, uncertainty about uncertainty rising.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~1h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [INFO] Screener: NET β promotion-ready (4d on list, HIGH conviction 71/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 56% (n=276)).
- [INFO] Screener: ENTG β promotion-ready (7d on list, HIGH conviction 65/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 56% (n=276)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.43%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 284.057 | Prev: 286.279
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β8.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (β15.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β1.9% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (β4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β1.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.2% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (22):
[1] Swiss Franc: Strong growth may curb losses against Euro - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-strong-growth-may-curb-losses-against-euro-rabobank-202608141158 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 11:58:41 GMT
[2] Norwegian Krone: Restrictive Norges Bank stance and downside risks - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/norwegian-krone-restrictive-norges-bank-stance-and-downside-risks-commerzbank-202608141149 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 11:49:31 GMT
[3] Swiss Franc edges up from lows against the US Dollar with US Retail Sales on tap URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-edges-up-from-lows-against-the-us-dollar-with-us-retail-sales-on-tap-202608141148 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 11:48:47 GMT
[4] Weekly focus: Some relief in US inflation concerns URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/weekly-focus-some-relief-in-us-inflation-concerns-202608141140 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 11:40:28 GMT
[5] British Pound strengthens against US Dollar as traders price out hawkish Fed bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-strengthens-against-us-dollar-as-traders-price-out-hawkish-fed-bets-202608141138 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 11:38:16 GMT
[6] South African Rand: ZAR outperforms on carry and Gold - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-african-rand-zar-outperforms-on-carry-and-gold-societe-generale-202608141136 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 11:36:56 GMT
[7] Cryptocurrencies Price Prediction: PI, Bitcoin & Crypto - European Wrap 14 August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-pi-bitcoin-crypto-european-wrap-14-august-202608141133 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 11:33:55 GMT
[8] India FX Reserves, USD rose from previous $692.87B to $707B in August 3 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-fx-reserves-usd-rose-from-previous-69287b-to-707b-in-august-3-202608141130 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 11:30:31 GMT
[9] S&P hits fresh record as cooler PPI headline slashes September rate-hike odds URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/sp-hits-fresh-record-as-cooler-ppi-headline-slashes-september-rate-hike-odds-202608141125 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 11:25:58 GMT
[10] The Dollar is losing ground, but will it last? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-dollar-is-losing-ground-but-will-it-last-202608141123 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 11:23:45 GMT
[11] Canadian Dollar: Manufacturing sales drag from energy - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-manufacturing-sales-drag-from-energy-td-securities-202608141122 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 11:22:46 GMT
[12] Gold bounces from weekly low on softer US Dollar, fading September Fed hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-bounces-from-weekly-low-on-softer-us-dollar-fading-september-fed-hike-bets-202608141116 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 11:16:24 GMT
[13] US Dollar Index: Range-bound Dollar as Fed odds ease - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-range-bound-dollar-as-fed-odds-ease-bbh-202608141110 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 11:10:54 GMT
[14] USD/CAD Price Forecast: Posts fresh two-month low below 1.3900 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-posts-fresh-two-month-low-below-13900-202608141105 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 11:05:24 GMT
[15] Pi Network Price Forecast: PI extends consolidation as bulls eye $0.10 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/pi-network-price-forecast-pi-extends-consolidation-as-bulls-eye-010-202608141057 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 10:57:28 GMT
[16] WTI Oil rebounds as supply tensions overshadow demand concerns URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-oil-rebounds-as-supply-tensions-overshadow-demand-concerns-202608141056 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 10:56:23 GMT
[17] The crypto market has again stepped back on strong stocks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/the-crypto-market-has-again-stepped-back-on-strong-stocks-202608141051 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 10:51:54 GMT
[18] We say higher, markets said mixed URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/we-say-higher-markets-said-mixed-202608141039 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 10:39:28 GMT
[19] NZD/USD Price Forecast: Approaches 0.5900 resistance area as US Dollar weakens URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-approaches-05900-resistance-area-as-us-dollar-weakens-202608141037 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 10:37:53 GMT
[20] EUR/USD price outlook: EUR/USD tests 0.618 arc URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-usd-price-outlook-eur-usd-tests-0618-arc-awaiting-directional-confirmation-202608141035 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 10:35:37 GMT
[21] Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Hormuz uncertainty clouds BTC outlook URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-weekly-forecast-hormuz-uncertainty-clouds-btc-outlook-202608141026 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 10:26:46 GMT
[22] Markets hover amid lack of progress in Iran and continued high valuations in the AI sector URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/markets-hover-amid-lack-of-progress-in-iran-and-continued-high-valuations-in-the-ai-sector-202608141004 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 10:04:12 GMT
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 167 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 3 of 60 normal daily β 5.0% of normal
- Throughput: 3.9% of normal (0.4M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 300
- Oil Prices: Brent $93.26 (+0.56%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 50.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS275 (+450% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.5 billion/day economic cost