Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-14 08:32:30 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.8% (3d) | Alignment: 88% (7 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.471 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.76 call-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +9.2B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 68% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Copper/Gold -3.4% growth pessimism Β· real yield 2.42% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.56 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.14 normal, SPY/TNX -0.38 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.63 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 14.5 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 134 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 6.15 dealer fear |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 16 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.5% stable, MOVE 69 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.71% moderate, NFCI -0.549 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally β dark pool, gamma, and breadth align with SPY's uptrend (88% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 86/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.471; GEX positive at 9.2B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.5 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: KHC, PFE, FSLR
- Shorts: WTW, VLY
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 14% (n=240) | 3d 36% (n=240) | 5d 32% (n=240)
- Screener Board Record: 176 closed (hit rate 45%) Β· 160 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $778.76 | 50 SMA $748.48 | 200 SMA $705.00 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $774.09
- QQQ: $734.08 | 50 SMA $713.21 | 200 SMA $650.11 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $724.98
- IWM: $303.63 | 50 SMA $294.75 | 200 SMA $268.28 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $301.27
- VIX: 14.51 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.629%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $778.76 | 76.79 | 56.6 | $774.09 | Bearish | 0.45 |
| QQQ | $734.08 | 69.87 | 63.3 | $724.98 | Neutral | 0.59 |
| IWM | $303.63 | 67.72 | 27.0 | $301.27 | Bearish | 0.49 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.51 | 32.96 | 53.1 | $11.25 | Neutral | 1.39 |
| TNX | 46.29 βΌ | 46.23 | 36.9 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $402.31 | 71.17 | 30.6 | $379.38 | Bearish | 0.49 |
| DXY | 99.58 | 23.44 | 31.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $58.79 | 69.52 | 13.4 | $44.00 | Bearish | 0.39 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.471
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 9.18B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.98%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.48% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 67.7%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 73.2%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 393
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.3%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 88.9% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 86.0% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 85.1% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 80.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 76.9% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 72.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 64.4% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 63.2% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 59.3% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 35.0% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 13.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $81.93 (5d: -0.2%)
- Brent Crude: $87.51 | Spread: $5.58
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8600/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.1000/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $55.55/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $61.06
- UNG (Nat Gas): $9.97
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.56 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.141 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.382 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.628 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.23
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.76 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $626.3B
- Gamma Call Wall: $780 | Put Wall: $770 (Spot: $778.76)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -27,258 contracts (Z +1.81, as of 2026-08-04)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -3.2% (as of 2026-08-12)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.63%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.93 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.58
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.21% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.24%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.27%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 16/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6760.0B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $964.0B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,796B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,832B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,041B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,668B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,781 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.471, GEX +9.2B, HY OAS 2.71%, breadth 68%.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] VVIX/VIX ratio at 6.2 β vol-of-vol outpacing VIX, uncertainty about uncertainty rising.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~1h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [INFO] Screener: NET β promotion-ready (4d on list, HIGH conviction 71/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 56% (n=276)).
- [INFO] Screener: ENTG β promotion-ready (7d on list, HIGH conviction 65/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 56% (n=276)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.43%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Retail Sales: 666056.0 | Prev: 664439.0
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β8.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (β15.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β1.9% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (β4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β1.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.2% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (14):
[1] United States Retail Sales (YoY) fell from previous 6.7% to 5% in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-retail-sales-yoy-fell-from-previous-67-to-5-in-july-202608141230 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 12:30:36 GMT
[2] United States Retail Sales Control Group down to -0.4% in July from previous 0.5% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-retail-sales-control-group-down-to-04-in-july-from-previous-05-202608141230 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 12:30:12 GMT
[3] United States Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) below forecasts (0.2%) in July: Actual (-0.3%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-retail-sales-ex-autos-mom-below-forecasts-02-in-july-actual-03-202608141230 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 12:30:12 GMT
[4] Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) came in at 2.8%, above expectations (2.7%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-wholesale-sales-mom-came-in-at-28-above-expectations-27-in-june-202608141230 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 12:30:09 GMT
[5] United States Retail Sales (MoM) came in at -0.6%, below expectations (0.1%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-retail-sales-mom-came-in-at-06-below-expectations-01-in-july-202608141230 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 12:30:05 GMT
[6] Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) above forecasts (-0.1%) in June: Actual (0.1%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-manufacturing-sales-mom-above-forecasts-01-in-june-actual-01-202608141230 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 12:30:04 GMT
[7] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP strengthens against US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-strengthens-against-us-dollar-202608141228 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 12:28:32 GMT
[8] Federal Reserve: Communication reset at Jackson Hole - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/federal-reserve-communication-reset-at-jackson-hole-td-securities-202608141225 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 12:25:03 GMT
[9] Euro little changed against Pound Sterling as ECB, BoE outlooks stay in focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-little-changed-against-pound-sterling-as-ecb-boe-outlooks-stay-in-focus-202608141218 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 12:18:02 GMT
[10] Australian Dollar regains momentum as hawkish RBA meets softer US inflation URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-regains-momentum-as-hawkish-rba-meets-softer-us-inflation-202608141217 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 12:17:36 GMT
[11] USD trades heavier and look for North America to follow suit URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/usd-trades-heavier-and-look-for-north-america-to-follow-suit-202608141215 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 12:15:54 GMT
[12] Swedish Krona: Undervalued SEK with constrained upside - Nordea URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swedish-krona-undervalued-sek-with-constrained-upside-nordea-202608141213 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 12:13:52 GMT
[13] USD/JPY faces rejection at 0.5 Arc - Potential decline toward 158.66 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/usd-jpy-faces-rejection-at-05-arc-potential-decline-toward-15866-202608141213 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 12:13:08 GMT
[14] US Dollar: Mixed data and higher yields shape outlook - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-mixed-data-and-higher-yields-shape-outlook-danske-bank-202608141204 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 12:04:33 GMT
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 167 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 3 of 60 normal daily β 5.0% of normal
- Throughput: 3.9% of normal (0.4M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 300
- Oil Prices: Brent $93.26 (+0.56%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 50.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS275 (+450% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.5 billion/day economic cost