Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-14 06:01:16 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.7% (3d) | Alignment: 88% (7 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	DIX 0.471 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.76 call-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +9.2B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 68% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Copper/Gold -2.2% slowing · real yield 2.42% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.56 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.14 normal, SPY/TNX -0.38 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.63 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 14.6 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 134 normal · VVIX/VIX 6.11 dealer fear
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 16 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d +0.7% stable, MOVE 69 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.71% moderate, NFCI -0.549 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally — dark pool, gamma, and breadth align with SPY's uptrend (88% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 86/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.471; GEX positive at 9.2B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.6 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $778.16 | 50 SMA $748.12 | 200 SMA $704.50 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $772.68
QQQ: $732.45 | 50 SMA $713.49 | 200 SMA $649.53 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $720.87
IWM: $303.67 | 50 SMA $294.52 | 200 SMA $268.01 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $301.34
VIX: 14.63 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.641%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$778.16	75.21	55.8	$772.68	Bearish	0.19
QQQ	$732.45	63.25	62.3	$720.87	Bearish	0.16
IWM	$303.67	65.21	27.2	$301.34	Bearish	0.42

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	14.63	32.16	54.0	$10.00	None	None
TNX	46.41	47.84	36.9	-	-	-
GLD	$399.19	78.64	28.8	$377.53	Bearish	0.45
DXY	99.97	25.63	40.4	-	-	-
SLV	$58.20	75.18	13.6	$44.00	Bearish	0.38

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.471
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 9.18B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.98%
2s10s Spread: 0.48% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 67.7%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 73.2%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 393
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.3%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	88.9%	0/0
Health Care	86.0%	0/0
Financials	85.1%	0/0
Communication Services	80.0%	0/0
Consumer Staples	76.9%	0/0
Industrials	72.7%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	64.4%	0/0
Materials	63.2%	0/0
Technology	59.3%	0/0
Real Estate	35.0%	0/0
Utilities	13.0%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $81.21 (5d: +3.9%)
Brent Crude: $86.96 | Spread: $5.75
RBOB Gasoline: $2.8500/gal
Heating Oil: $4.1200/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.27/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $61.06
UNG (Nat Gas): $9.97

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.56	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.141	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.382	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.628	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.23
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 4,568,582.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,482,871.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.76 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $626.3B
Gamma Call Wall: $780 | Put Wall: $770 (Spot: $778.16)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -27,258 contracts (Z +1.81, as of 2026-08-04)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -3.2% (as of 2026-08-12)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.64%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.94 (Normal)
DXY: 99.97
Growth vs Value: 0.94
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.21% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.24%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.27%
Stagflation Risk Score: 16/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6760.0B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $964.0B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,796B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,832B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,041B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,668B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,693 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.471, GEX +9.2B, HY OAS 2.71%, breadth 68%.
[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] VVIX/VIX ratio at 6.1 — vol-of-vol outpacing VIX, uncertainty about uncertainty rising.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
[WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.
[WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~1h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[INFO] Screener: NET — promotion-ready (4d on list, HIGH conviction 71/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 56% (n=276)).
[INFO] Screener: ENTG — promotion-ready (7d on list, HIGH conviction 65/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 56% (n=276)).

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.43%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Producer Price Index (PPI): 284.057 | Prev: 286.279

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑8.1% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.5% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑1.9% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓1.6% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.2% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (29):

[1] UoM Consumer Sentiment Index set to ease as inflation, labour market worries loom URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/uom-consumer-sentiment-index-set-to-ease-as-inflation-labour-market-worries-loom-202608141000 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 10:00:00 GMT

[2] Euro holds gains above 1.1550 following Eurozone GDP and bright Trade Balance data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-holds-gains-above-11550-following-eurozone-gdp-and-bright-trade-balance-data-202608140959 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 09:59:22 GMT

[3] US inflation cools further as CPI and PPI ease, reducing Fed rate-hike expectations URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/us-inflation-cools-further-as-cpi-and-ppi-ease-reducing-fed-rate-hike-expectations-202608140952 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 09:52:49 GMT

[4] US Dollar: Looking for a shift in Fedspeak - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-looking-for-a-shift-in-fedspeak-ing-202608140945 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 09:45:11 GMT

[5] Japanese Yen: Bearish bias within 158.00-160.20 band against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-bearish-bias-within-15800-16020-band-against-us-dollar-uob-202608140937 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 09:37:28 GMT

[6] Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608140931 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 09:31:45 GMT

[7] Silver regains ground above $64 as Fed rate hike bets fade URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-regains-ground-above-64-as-fed-rate-hike-bets-fade-202608140931 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 09:31:26 GMT

[8] Brazilian Real: Election risks threaten Real - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazilian-real-election-risks-threaten-real-societe-generale-202608140927 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 09:27:02 GMT

[9] Australian Dollar: RBA keeps hike option open - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-rba-keeps-hike-option-open-rabobank-202608140918 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 09:18:26 GMT

[10] Federal Reserve: RMP pause and QT timing - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/federal-reserve-rmp-pause-and-qt-timing-td-securities-202608140908 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 09:08:36 GMT

[11] Eurozone Q2 GDP growth remains at 0.4%, as flash data showed URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-q2-gdp-growth-remains-at-04-as-flash-data-showed-202608140902 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 09:02:31 GMT

[12] Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) meets expectations (1%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-gross-domestic-product-sa-yoy-meets-expectations-1-in-2q-202608140900 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 09:00:32 GMT

[13] Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) in line with forecasts (0.4%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-gross-domestic-product-sa-qoq-in-line-with-forecasts-04-in-2q-202608140900 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 09:00:30 GMT

[14] Eurozone Trade Balance n.s.a. registered at €8.6B above expectations (€-2.2B) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-trade-balance-nsa-registered-at-eur86b-above-expectations-eur-22b-in-june-202608140900 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 09:00:15 GMT

[15] Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. increased to €1.8B in June from previous €-5B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-trade-balance-sa-increased-to-eur18b-in-june-from-previous-eur-5b-202608140900 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 09:00:12 GMT

[16] Eurozone Employment Change (QoQ) meets expectations (0.1%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-employment-change-qoq-meets-expectations-01-in-2q-202608140859 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 08:59:51 GMT

[17] Eurozone Employment Change (YoY) unchanged at 0.5% in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-employment-change-yoy-unchanged-at-05-in-2q-202608140859 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 08:59:51 GMT

[18] US Dollar Index Price Forecast: DXY declines to 99.75-99.70 amid receding Fed hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-price-forecast-dxy-declines-to-9975-9970-amid-receding-fed-hike-bets-202608140858 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 08:58:29 GMT

[19] Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple risk steeper correction as bearish pressure mounts URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-today-bitcoin-ethereum-and-ripple-risk-steeper-correction-as-bearish-pressure-mounts-202608140856 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 08:56:57 GMT

[20] GBP/USD Price Forecast: Picks up above 1.3500 amid generalised US Dollar weakness URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-picks-up-above-13500-amid-generalised-us-dollar-weakness-202608140855 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 08:55:09 GMT

[21] British Pound: Growth resilience supports gains against US Dollar - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-growth-resilience-supports-gains-against-us-dollar-mufg-202608140854 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 08:54:52 GMT

[22] US Dollar: Carry trades supported as Fed seen on hold - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-carry-trades-supported-as-fed-seen-on-hold-ocbc-202608140846 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 08:46:40 GMT

[23] Euro flattens against Japanese Yen, ECB-BoJ to raise rates in September URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-flattens-against-japanese-yen-ecb-boj-to-raise-rates-in-september-202608140841 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 08:41:27 GMT

[24] Japanese Yen: Shifting rate expectations and currency support - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-shifting-rate-expectations-and-currency-support-commerzbank-202608140838 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 08:38:34 GMT

[25] China M2 Money Supply (YoY) registered at 7.7%, below expectations (7.9%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-m2-money-supply-yoy-registered-at-77-below-expectations-79-in-july-202608140835 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 08:35:07 GMT

[26] China New Loans fell from previous 1610B to -340B in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-new-loans-fell-from-previous-1610b-to-340b-in-july-202608140835 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 08:35:06 GMT

[27] Hong Kong SAR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) in line with forecasts (-0.6%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/hong-kong-sar-gross-domestic-product-qoq-in-line-with-forecasts-06-in-2q-202608140834 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 08:34:32 GMT

[28] Hong Kong SAR Gross Domestic Product (YoY) meets forecasts (4.3%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/hong-kong-sar-gross-domestic-product-yoy-meets-forecasts-43-in-2q-202608140834 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 08:34:06 GMT

[29] Indian Rupee: RBI support offsets wider trade gap - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-rbi-support-offsets-wider-trade-gap-societe-generale-202608140819 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 08:19:47 GMT

Iran War News

No new Iran International updates since last report.

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 167 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily — 5.0% of normal
Throughput: 5.0% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 350
Oil Prices: Brent $93.26 (+0.56%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 50.0x normal
Tanker Rates: WS175 (+250% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost