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2026-W33

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-14 04:01:20 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.7% (3d) | Alignment: 88% (7 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β€” Strong alignment β€” structural signals confirm price direction

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED DIX 0.471 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.76 call-heavy
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED GEX +9.2B strong suppression
Breadth 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Breadth 68% β€” broad participation supports rally
Energy 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Energy STABLE β€” no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ— DIVERGENT Copper/Gold -2.2% slowing Β· real yield 2.42% restrictive
Correlations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” SPY/VIX -0.56 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.14 normal, SPY/TNX -0.38 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.63 stretched
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 14.6 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 134 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 6.11 dealer fear
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Stagflation score 16 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED USD/JPY 5d +0.7% stable, MOVE 69 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β€” hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED HY OAS 2.71% moderate, NFCI -0.549 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally β€” dark pool, gamma, and breadth align with SPY's uptrend (88% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 86/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.471; GEX positive at 9.2B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.6 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $778.16 | 50 SMA $748.12 | 200 SMA $704.50 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $772.68
  • QQQ: $732.45 | 50 SMA $713.49 | 200 SMA $649.53 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $720.87
  • IWM: $303.67 | 50 SMA $294.52 | 200 SMA $268.01 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $301.34
  • VIX: 14.63 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.641%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $778.16 75.21 55.8 $772.68 Bearish 0.19
QQQ $732.45 63.25 62.3 $720.87 Bearish 0.16
IWM $303.67 65.21 27.2 $301.34 Bearish 0.42

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 14.63 32.16 54.0 $10.00 None None
TNX 46.41 47.84 36.9 - - -
GLD $399.19 78.64 28.8 $377.53 Bearish 0.45
DXY 99.97 25.63 40.4 - - -
SLV $58.20 75.18 13.6 $44.00 Bearish 0.38

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.471
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 9.18B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.98%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.48% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 67.7%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 73.2%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 393
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 41.3%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Energy 88.9% 0/0
Health Care 86.0% 0/0
Financials 85.1% 0/0
Communication Services 80.0% 0/0
Consumer Staples 76.9% 0/0
Industrials 72.7% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 64.4% 0/0
Materials 63.2% 0/0
Technology 59.3% 0/0
Real Estate 35.0% 0/0
Utilities 13.0% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: STABLE
  • WTI Crude: $81.21 (5d: +3.9%)
  • Brent Crude: $86.96 | Spread: $5.75
  • RBOB Gasoline: $2.8500/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.1200/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.27/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $61.06
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $9.97

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.56 elevated
SPY / DXY -0.141 normal
SPY / TNX -0.382 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.628 stretched

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.23
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 4,568,582.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 3,482,871.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.76 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $626.3B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $780 | Put Wall: $770 (Spot: $778.16)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
  • Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -27,258 contracts (Z +1.81, as of 2026-08-04)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -3.2% (as of 2026-08-12)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.64%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.94 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.97
  • Growth vs Value: 0.94
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.21% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.24%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.27%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 16/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6760.0B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $964.0B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,796B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,832B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,041B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,668B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,862 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.471, GEX +9.2B, HY OAS 2.71%, breadth 68%.
  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [WARNING] VVIX/VIX ratio at 6.1 β€” vol-of-vol outpacing VIX, uncertainty about uncertainty rising.
  • [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β€” normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
  • [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β€” systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
  • [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
  • [WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~1h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [INFO] Screener: NET β€” promotion-ready (4d on list, HIGH conviction 71/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 56% (n=276)).
  • [INFO] Screener: ENTG β€” promotion-ready (7d on list, HIGH conviction 65/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 56% (n=276)).

Seasonality

  • Current Month: August
  • Average Return: +0.43%
  • Median Return: +1.41%
  • Hit Rate: 65%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 284.057 | Prev: 286.279

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑8.1% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.5% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑1.9% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓1.6% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.2% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (28):

[1] Japanese Yen recovers from two-week low on fast BoJ rate hike bets, softer USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-recovers-from-two-week-low-on-fast-boj-rate-hike-bets-softer-usd-202608140800 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 08:00:01 GMT

[2] Risk-on sentiment keeps stocks supported as US Dollar faces more pressure URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/risk-on-sentiment-keeps-stocks-supported-as-us-dollar-faces-more-pressure-202608140759 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 07:59:33 GMT

[3] EUR/USD reacts to data: Fed rate hike expectations fall URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-usd-reacts-to-data-fed-rate-hike-expectations-fall-202608140759 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 07:59:07 GMT

[4] EUR/USD Price Forecast: Hawkish ECB prospects support Euro URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-hawkish-ecb-prospects-support-euro-202608140754 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 07:54:25 GMT

[5] US Dollar: Softer tone with falling yields - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-softer-tone-with-falling-yields-mufg-202608140749 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 07:49:41 GMT

[6] New highs for stocks as confidence returns URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/new-highs-for-stocks-as-confidence-returns-202608140748 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 07:48:02 GMT

[7] FX daily: EUR/USD starting to look cheap URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/fx-daily-eur-usd-starting-to-look-cheap-202608140743 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 07:43:23 GMT

[8] Australian Dollar bounces up, US Dollar droops ahead of US Retail Sales data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-bounces-up-us-dollar-droops-ahead-of-us-retail-sales-data-202608140740 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 07:40:39 GMT

[9] Japanese Yen: BoJ tightening debate supports JPY - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-boj-tightening-debate-supports-jpy-rabobank-202608140738 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 07:38:28 GMT

[10] Risk-on holds despite a quiet market URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/risk-on-holds-despite-a-quiet-market-202608140737 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 07:37:48 GMT

[11] Stocks bid, bond yields elevated and the Yen in focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/stocks-bid-bond-yields-elevated-and-the-yen-in-focus-202608140732 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 07:32:24 GMT

[12] Norwegian Krone: Weaker after Norges Bank holds rates - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/norwegian-krone-weaker-after-norges-bank-holds-rates-danske-bank-202608140723 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 07:23:21 GMT

[13] Canadian Dollar hits fresh high since June on rising oil prices, Fed-inspired USD weakness URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-hits-fresh-high-since-june-on-rising-oil-prices-fed-inspired-usd-weakness-202608140723 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 07:23:13 GMT

[14] Dow Jones futures steady ahead of US Retail Sales data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-steady-ahead-of-us-retail-sales-data-202608140719 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 07:19:55 GMT

[15] British Pound: Locked in tight ranges against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-locked-in-tight-ranges-against-us-dollar-uob-202608140713 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 07:13:13 GMT

[16] Euro: Showing some undervaluation against US Dollar - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-showing-some-undervaluation-against-us-dollar-ing-202608140702 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 07:02:51 GMT

[17] Equities: US stock rally broadens as S&P 500 hits new high - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-us-stock-rally-broadens-as-sp-500-hits-new-high-deutsche-bank-202608140652 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 06:52:17 GMT

[18] Canadian Dollar gathers strength on easing Fed rate hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-gathers-strength-on-easing-fed-rate-hike-bets-202608140650 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 06:50:31 GMT

[19] France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM) in line with forecasts (0.6%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-consumer-price-index-eu-norm-mom-in-line-with-forecasts-06-in-july-202608140645 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 06:45:03 GMT

[20] France Inflation ex-tobacco (MoM) rose from previous -0.3% to 0.6% in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-inflation-ex-tobacco-mom-rose-from-previous-03-to-06-in-july-202608140645 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 06:45:02 GMT

[21] France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY) meets forecasts (2.4%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-consumer-price-index-eu-norm-yoy-meets-forecasts-24-in-july-202608140645 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 06:45:01 GMT

[22] New Zealand Dollar gains on hawkish RBNZ policy outlook URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-gains-on-hawkish-rbnz-policy-outlook-202608140643 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 06:43:24 GMT

[23] Cryptocurrencies Price Prediction: BSV, Ripple & Bitcoin - Asian Wrap 14 August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-bsv-ripple-bitcoin-asian-wrap-14-august-202608140643 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 06:43:23 GMT

[24] British Pound edges down against Japanese Yen on hawkish BoJ bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-edges-down-against-japanese-yen-on-hawkish-boj-bets-202608140639 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 06:39:28 GMT

[25] Japanese Yen: Recovery needs faster BoJ normalisation - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-recovery-needs-faster-boj-normalisation-ocbc-202608140635 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 06:35:36 GMT

[26] Forex Today: Easing Fed rate hike bets weigh on USD amid Mideast stalemate URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-easing-fed-rate-hike-bets-weigh-on-usd-amid-mideast-stalemate-202608140633 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 06:33:29 GMT

[27] India WPI Inflation came in at 9.78%, below expectations (10.25%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-wpi-inflation-came-in-at-978-below-expectations-1025-in-july-202608140631 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 06:31:18 GMT

[28] US Dollar: Labor slowdown gives mixed signals for Dollar - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-labor-slowdown-gives-mixed-signals-for-dollar-commerzbank-202608140629 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 06:29:11 GMT

Iran War News

No new Iran International updates since last report.

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 167 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 3 of 60 normal daily β€” 5.0% of normal
  • Throughput: 2.4% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 250
  • Oil Prices: Brent $93.26 (+0.56%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 56.7x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS420 (+740% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.8 billion/day economic cost