Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-14 02:01:34 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.7% (3d) | Alignment: 88% (7 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	DIX 0.471 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.76 call-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +9.2B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 68% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Copper/Gold -2.2% slowing · real yield 2.42% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.56 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.14 normal, SPY/TNX -0.38 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.63 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 14.6 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 134 normal · VVIX/VIX 6.11 dealer fear
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 16 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d +0.7% stable, MOVE 69 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.71% moderate, NFCI -0.549 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally — dark pool, gamma, and breadth align with SPY's uptrend (88% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 86/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.471; GEX positive at 9.2B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.6 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $778.16 | 50 SMA $748.12 | 200 SMA $704.50 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $772.68
QQQ: $732.45 | 50 SMA $713.49 | 200 SMA $649.53 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $720.87
IWM: $303.67 | 50 SMA $294.52 | 200 SMA $268.01 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $301.34
VIX: 14.63 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.641%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$778.16	75.21	55.8	$772.68	Bearish	0.19
QQQ	$732.45	63.25	62.3	$720.87	Bearish	0.16
IWM	$303.67	65.21	27.2	$301.34	Bearish	0.42

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	14.63	32.16	54.0	$10.00	None	None
TNX	46.41	47.84	36.9	-	-	-
GLD	$399.19	78.64	28.8	$377.53	Bearish	0.45
DXY	99.97	25.63	40.4	-	-	-
SLV	$58.20	75.18	13.6	$44.00	Bearish	0.38

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.471
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 9.18B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.98%
2s10s Spread: 0.48% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 67.7%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 73.2%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 393
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.3%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	88.9%	0/0
Health Care	86.0%	0/0
Financials	85.1%	0/0
Communication Services	80.0%	0/0
Consumer Staples	76.9%	0/0
Industrials	72.7%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	64.4%	0/0
Materials	63.2%	0/0
Technology	59.3%	0/0
Real Estate	35.0%	0/0
Utilities	13.0%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $81.21 (5d: +3.9%)
Brent Crude: $86.96 | Spread: $5.75
RBOB Gasoline: $2.8500/gal
Heating Oil: $4.1200/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.27/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $61.06
UNG (Nat Gas): $9.97

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.56	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.141	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.382	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.628	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.23
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 4,568,582.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,482,871.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.76 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $626.3B
Gamma Call Wall: $780 | Put Wall: $770 (Spot: $778.16)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -27,258 contracts (Z +1.81, as of 2026-08-04)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -3.2% (as of 2026-08-12)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.64%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.94 (Normal)
DXY: 99.97
Growth vs Value: 0.94
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.21% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.24%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.27%
Stagflation Risk Score: 16/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6760.0B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $964.0B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,796B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,832B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,041B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,668B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,300 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.471, GEX +9.2B, HY OAS 2.71%, breadth 68%.
[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] VVIX/VIX ratio at 6.1 — vol-of-vol outpacing VIX, uncertainty about uncertainty rising.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
[WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.
[WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~1h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[INFO] Screener: NET — promotion-ready (4d on list, HIGH conviction 71/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 56% (n=276)).
[INFO] Screener: ENTG — promotion-ready (7d on list, HIGH conviction 65/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 56% (n=276)).

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.43%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Producer Price Index (PPI): 284.057 | Prev: 286.279

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑8.1% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.5% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑1.9% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓1.6% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.2% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (27):

[1] Germany Wholesale Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.2% below forecasts (0.4%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-wholesale-price-index-mom-came-in-at-02-below-forecasts-04-in-july-202608140600 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 06:00:07 GMT

[2] Germany Wholesale Price Index (YoY): 5.3% (July) vs 4.9% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-wholesale-price-index-yoy-53-july-vs-49-202608140600 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 06:00:06 GMT

[3] Apple to take on China AI with BABA, US inflation concerns assuaged for now URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/apple-to-take-on-china-ai-with-baba-us-inflation-concerns-assuaged-for-now-202608140600 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 06:00:06 GMT

[4] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD slips below $64.00 on profit taking URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-slips-below-6400-on-profit-taking-202608140553 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 05:53:51 GMT

[5] Inflation eases apart from Poland and Czechia URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/inflation-eases-apart-from-poland-and-czechia-202608140552 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 05:52:39 GMT

[6] Further signs of easing US price pressures support markets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/further-signs-of-easing-us-price-pressures-support-markets-202608140549 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 05:49:39 GMT

[7] WTI regains ground near $80 amid continued energy supply risks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-regains-ground-near-80-amid-continued-energy-supply-risks-202608140548 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 05:48:23 GMT

[8] Ripple Price Forecast: XRP holds $1 support as ETF inflows, whale accumulation fuel recovery hopes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ripple-price-forecast-xrp-holds-1-support-as-etf-inflows-whale-accumulation-fuel-recovery-hopes-202608140536 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 05:36:45 GMT

[9] Ethereum foundation pivots away from Poseidon in post-quantum plan URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-foundation-pivots-away-from-poseidon-in-post-quantum-plan-202608140530 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 05:30:43 GMT

[10] AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Weakens to near 112.50, near-term outlook remains bearish URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-jpy-price-forecast-weakens-to-near-11250-near-term-outlook-remains-bearish-202608140529 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 05:29:56 GMT

[11] Indian Rupee trades calm while oil prices correct URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-trades-calm-while-oil-prices-correct-202608140525 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 05:25:33 GMT

[12] Dollar mostly flat after inflation meets expectations URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/dollar-mostly-flat-after-inflation-meets-expectations-202608140525 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 05:25:03 GMT

[13] United States Dollar Index weakens as cooling US inflation eases Fed rate hike odds URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-weakens-as-cooling-us-inflation-eases-fed-rate-hike-odds-202608140520 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 05:20:13 GMT

[14] Apple (AAPL) Elliott Wave forecast signals extended downside path [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/apple-aapl-elliott-wave-forecast-signals-extended-downside-path-video-202608140518 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 05:18:56 GMT

[15] Morning briefing: The US treasury yields are coming down as expected URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/morning-briefing-the-us-treasury-yields-are-coming-down-as-expected-202608140511 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 05:11:26 GMT

[16] Saudi Arabia Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/saudi-arabia-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608140507 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 05:07:16 GMT

[17] Philippines Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/philippines-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608140501 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 05:01:18 GMT

[18] United Arab Emirates Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-arab-emirates-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608140455 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 04:55:59 GMT

[19] British Pound strengthens to near 1.3500 as Fed rate hike bets ease URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-strengthens-to-near-13500-as-fed-rate-hike-bets-ease-202608140452 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 04:52:43 GMT

[20] USD/JPY Price Forecast: Bulls cautious below 159.50, 50% Fibo. caps upside on soft USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-bulls-cautious-below-15950-50-fibo-caps-upside-on-soft-usd-202608140450 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 04:50:51 GMT

[21] Pakistan Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pakistan-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608140445 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 04:45:11 GMT

[22] India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608140435 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 04:35:57 GMT

[23] Malaysia Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/malaysia-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608140430 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 04:30:37 GMT

[24] Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH on-chain signal remains weak even as mild retail distribution continues URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-price-forecast-eth-on-chain-signal-remains-weak-even-as-mild-retail-distribution-continues-202608140411 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 04:11:49 GMT

[25] EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Holds ground near 184.00, 50-day EMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-price-forecast-holds-ground-near-18400-50-day-ema-202608140406 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 04:06:30 GMT

[26] Euro gains as receding Fed hike bets weigh on USD; geopolitical risks cap upside URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-gains-as-receding-fed-hike-bets-weigh-on-usd-geopolitical-risks-cap-upside-202608140404 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 04:04:12 GMT

[27] Crypto Overview: Bitcoin holds at $63,000 - Cosmos, Pump.fun lead gains URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-overview-bitcoin-holds-at-63-000-cosmos-pumpfun-lead-gains-202608140401 Published: Fri, 14 Aug 2026 04:01:54 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (5):

[1] Iran lawmakers push back on regional monitoring of Hormuz Time: 2026-08-15T03:50:00.000Z

[2] Egypt condemns attack on two UAE ships in Strait of Hormuz Time: 2026-08-14T05:49:45.255Z

[3] Bahrain condemns Iranian attack on two UAE tankers in Strait of Hormuz Time: 2026-08-14T05:36:52.083Z

[4] Iran says Qeshm oil spill caused by 'foreign military action' Time: 2026-08-14T04:28:00.870Z

[5] Australia urges US to end Iran conflict Time: 2026-08-14T03:19:00.000Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 167 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 3 of 60 normal daily — 5.0% of normal
Throughput: 4.4% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 299
Oil Prices: Brent $93.26 (+0.56%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 56.7x normal
Tanker Rates: WS220 (+340% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost