Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-12 04:01:16 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 29% (2 aligned, 5 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.435 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.03 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +6.9B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 65% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -2.2% slowing Β· real yield 2.40% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.63 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.18 normal, SPY/TNX -0.28 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.64 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.3 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 136 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 5.95 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 19 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +1.0% yen weakening, MOVE 78 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.70% benign, NFCI -0.529 loose |
Divergence read: Moderate divergence β gamma, breadth, and inflation flash bullish while SPY tracks bearish. 5 of 7 signals disagree with price.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 76/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 76 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β energy regime RISING and DIX below threshold (0.435) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 5 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $83, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.435; GEX positive at 6.9B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.3 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $770.79 | 50 SMA $747.56 | 200 SMA $703.48 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $758.66
- QQQ: $718.81 | 50 SMA $714.27 | 200 SMA $648.40 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $708.48
- IWM: $301.07 | 50 SMA $294.03 | 200 SMA $267.44 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $292.65
- VIX: 15.28 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.684%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $770.79 | 66.78 | 57.8 | $758.66 | Neutral | 0.99 |
| QQQ | $718.81 | 54.61 | 66.2 | $708.48 | Neutral | 1.12 |
| IWM | $301.07 | 54.69 | 29.1 | $292.65 | Neutral | 0.69 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.28 | 43.97 | 61.6 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.32 |
| TNX | 46.84 | 56.51 | 39.9 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $401.00 | 71.43 | 33.6 | $377.82 | Bearish | 0.27 |
| DXY | 99.82 | 30.58 | 35.4 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $58.50 | 70.78 | 15.1 | $53.37 | Bearish | 0.29 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.435
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.94B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.47% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 64.6%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 72.0%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 497
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.7%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.5%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 85.1% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 83.3% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 78.9% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 78.9% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 75.0% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 68.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 67.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 61.8% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 58.5% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 14.3% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 13.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $83.23 (5d: +10.7%)
- Brent Crude: $88.95 | Spread: $5.72
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8900/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.2800/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.61/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $60.93
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.07
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.627 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.18 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.284 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.644 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.92
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,721,190.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,847,102.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.03 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $583.2B
- Gamma Call Wall: $780 | Put Wall: $770 (Spot: $770.79)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -27,258 contracts (Z +1.81, as of 2026-08-04)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.68%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.95 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.82
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.25% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.29%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 19/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6748.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $907.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,840B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,837B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,046B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,723B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,749 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.644 with energy in RISING β crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~294h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~54h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: naaim_exposure has printed the same value (79.7) for 10 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is weekly (~5 trading day(s); freeze bar 10). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.38%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β8.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (β15.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β1.9% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (β4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β1.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.2% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (24):
[1] Canadian Dollar trims gains, US Dollar firms up ahead of US CPI numbers URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-trims-gains-us-dollar-firms-up-ahead-of-us-cpi-numbers-202608120757 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 07:57:25 GMT
[2] Japanese Yen remains under pressure against US Dollar, US CPI data eyed URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-remains-under-pressure-against-us-dollar-us-cpi-data-eyed-202608120756 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 07:56:32 GMT
[3] Norwegian Krone: Norges Bank cautious on hikes - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/norwegian-krone-norges-bank-cautious-on-hikes-commerzbank-202608120753 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 07:53:39 GMT
[4] CEE FX: Geopolitics drives rates and currencies - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/cee-fx-geopolitics-drives-rates-and-currencies-ing-202608120739 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 07:39:36 GMT
[5] I have not seen patterns like this align in 40 years of trading [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/i-have-not-seen-patterns-like-this-align-in-40-years-of-trading-video-202608120738 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 07:38:57 GMT
[6] Euro remains subdued following German inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-remains-subdued-following-german-inflation-data-202608120737 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 07:37:22 GMT
[7] Rates spark: The fiscal number can eclipse CPI URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/rates-spark-the-fiscal-number-can-eclipse-cpi-202608120736 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 07:36:49 GMT
[8] British Pound advances to two-week high as rate gap and fiscal woes undermine Yen URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-advances-to-two-week-high-as-rate-gap-and-fiscal-woes-undermine-yen-202608120734 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 07:34:21 GMT
[9] British Pound: Limited upside within defined band against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-limited-upside-within-defined-band-against-us-dollar-uob-202608120731 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 07:31:17 GMT
[10] Equities: AI earnings revive risk appetite after tech weakness - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-ai-earnings-revive-risk-appetite-after-tech-weakness-deutsche-bank-202608120719 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 07:19:39 GMT
[11] NZD/USD Price Forecast: Nearing 0.5860 support area amid by risk-off markets, domestic politics URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-nearing-05860-support-area-amid-by-risk-off-markets-domestic-politics-202608120716 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 07:16:06 GMT
[12] Australian Dollar: Constructive carry outlook with RBA on hold - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-constructive-carry-outlook-with-rba-on-hold-ocbc-202608120707 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 07:07:16 GMT
[13] AUD/USD outlook: RBA hawkishness meets the US CPI test URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/aud-usd-outlook-rba-hawkishness-meets-the-us-cpi-test-202608120700 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 07:00:57 GMT
[14] CPI in focus - Can the Dollar turn lower again? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/cpi-in-focus-can-the-dollar-turn-lower-again-202608120653 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 06:53:33 GMT
[15] AUD/USD Price Forecast: Extends the range play near 0.7050; bulls await 50% Fibo. breakout URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-price-forecast-extends-the-range-play-near-07050-bulls-await-50-fibo-breakout-202608120650 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 06:50:57 GMT
[16] CEE: Retail Sales lose momentum in 2Q26 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/cee-retail-sales-lose-momentum-in-2q26-202608120650 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 06:50:46 GMT
[17] Japanese Yen: Policy focus after intervention - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-policy-focus-after-intervention-mufg-202608120649 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 06:49:19 GMT
[18] GBP/USD Price Forecast: Continues to remain flat ahead of US CPI data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-continues-to-remain-flat-ahead-of-us-cpi-data-202608120647 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 06:47:27 GMT
[19] Forex Today: Crucial US inflation data to lift market volatility URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-crucial-us-inflation-data-to-lift-market-volatility-202608120645 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 06:45:26 GMT
[20] US Dollar: CPI and Fed rhetoric in focus - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-cpi-and-fed-rhetoric-in-focus-commerzbank-202608120637 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 06:37:04 GMT
[21] Euro trims losses against the British Pound following hot German inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-trims-losses-against-the-british-pound-following-hot-german-inflation-data-202608120629 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 06:29:12 GMT
[22] Euro: Upside capped by key resistance against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-upside-capped-by-key-resistance-against-us-dollar-uob-202608120622 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 06:22:44 GMT
[23] Air Canada (ACDVF) beats Q2 earnings and revenue estimates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/air-canada-acdvf-beats-q2-earnings-and-revenue-estimates-202608120611 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 06:11:28 GMT
[24] What awaits Sterling this week URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/what-awaits-sterling-this-week-202608120602 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 06:02:25 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (5):
[1] From Hormuz to Bab el-Mandeb, conflict converges on vital shipping lanes Time: 2026-08-12T07:59:02.591Z
[2] Watch: Trump says US has 'total control' over Hormuz Time: 2026-08-12T07:39:20.772Z
[3] Iran plan bars 'hostile' vessels from Persian Gulf without approval, MP says Time: 2026-08-12T07:37:55.165Z
[BREAKING] [4] Houthis kill three Pakistanis in attack on commercial vessel, Pakistan FM says Time: 2026-08-12T06:31:17.349Z
[BREAKING] [5] Iran targets Kurdish opposition groups near Erbil - Rudaw Time: 2026-08-12T06:22:47.019Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 165 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily β 3.3% of normal
- Throughput: 3.0% of normal (30.9M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 298
- Oil Prices: Brent $88.90 (-8.30%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 53.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost