Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-12 05:02:12 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 20% (1 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.435 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.03 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +6.9B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 65% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold -1.5% neutral Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.63 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.18 normal, SPY/TNX -0.28 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.64 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.3 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 136 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 5.94 dealer stress |
| Inflation | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Stagflation score 29 β moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +1.1% yen weakening, MOVE 78 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.70% benign, NFCI -0.529 loose |
Divergence read: Moderate divergence β gamma, breadth, and carry flash bullish while SPY tracks bearish. 4 of 5 signals disagree with price.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 74/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 74 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β energy regime RISING and DIX below threshold (0.435) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $84, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.435; GEX positive at 6.9B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.3 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: BX, PFE, FSLR
- Shorts: WTW, VLY
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 14% (n=240) | 3d 36% (n=240) | 5d 32% (n=240)
- Screener Board Record: 166 closed (hit rate 44%) Β· 150 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $771.81 | 50 SMA $747.84 | 200 SMA $703.99 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $758.68
- QQQ: $722.32 | 50 SMA $713.88 | 200 SMA $648.96 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $708.45
- IWM: $301.52 | 50 SMA $294.24 | 200 SMA $267.73 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $277.0
- VIX: 15.32 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.684%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $771.81 | 65.36 | 55.9 | $758.68 | Neutral | 0.74 |
| QQQ | $722.32 | 55.12 | 63.0 | $708.45 | Neutral | 0.94 |
| IWM | $301.52 | 60.32 | 26.8 | $277.00 | Neutral | 0.64 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.32 | 44.75 | 53.7 | $10.00 | None | None |
| TNX | 46.84 | 52.54 | 38.3 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $403.93 | 67.62 | 29.1 | $376.29 | Bearish | 0.27 |
| DXY | 99.85 | 24.73 | 33.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $59.80 | 65.18 | 13.8 | $46.50 | Bearish | 0.28 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.435
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.94B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.48% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 64.8%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.7%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 492
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.7%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.5%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 85.1% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 83.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 78.9% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 77.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 75.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 69.0% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 68.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 63.6% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 58.5% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 14.8% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 13.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $83.57 (5d: +8.1%)
- Brent Crude: $89.27 | Spread: $5.70
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8800/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.2400/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.43/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $60.93
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.07
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.627 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.18 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.284 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.644 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.92
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.03 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $583.2B
- Gamma Call Wall: $780 | Put Wall: $770 (Spot: $771.81)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -27,258 contracts (Z +1.81, as of 2026-08-04)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.68%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.95 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.85
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.25% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.27%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.31%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 29/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6748.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $907.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,840B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,836B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,044B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,720B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,727 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 21 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 84 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_max_pain has printed the same value (735.0) for 30 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_put_wall has printed the same value (740.0) for 28 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_call_wall has printed the same value (750.0) for 29 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_gamma_flip has printed the same value (746.563209577586) for 28 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_underlying_price has printed the same value (745.9425) for 29 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_flow_dex_pct_shift has printed the same value (0.0) for 28 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_net_dex has printed the same value (41.0097) for 28 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_settled_net_dex has printed the same value (41.0097) for 28 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.38%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 332.568 | Prev: 333.979
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β8.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (β15.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β1.9% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (β4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β1.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.2% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (17):
[1] Japanese Yen: Remains vulnerable against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-remains-vulnerable-against-us-dollar-uob-202608120848 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 08:48:24 GMT
[2] Swiss Franc weakens against US Dollar with US Inflation in focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-weakens-against-us-dollar-with-us-inflation-in-focus-202608120845 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 08:45:34 GMT
[3] Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD resumes its uptrend, with bulls aiming for $67.17 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecasts-xag-usd-resumes-its-uptrend-with-bulls-aiming-for-6717-202608120839 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 08:39:46 GMT
[4] Mexican Peso: Bullish trend resumes against US Dollar - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexican-peso-bullish-trend-resumes-against-us-dollar-societe-generale-202608120839 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 08:39:04 GMT
[5] United States Dollar Index Price Forecast: Bulls await US CPI and breakout above 100.00 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-price-forecast-bulls-await-us-cpi-and-breakout-above-10000-202608120835 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 08:35:17 GMT
[6] Dow Jones futures remain steady as traders await US CPI data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-remain-steady-as-traders-await-us-cpi-data-202608120833 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 08:33:50 GMT
[7] US CPI data set to show softer inflation in July as markets reassess Fed rate hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-cpi-data-set-to-show-softer-inflation-in-july-as-markets-reassess-fed-rate-hike-bets-202608120830 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 08:30:00 GMT
[8] Brazilian Real: Politics weighs but carry supports - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazilian-real-politics-weighs-but-carry-supports-ing-202608120827 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 08:27:30 GMT
[9] Redefining drawdown: How to balance aggressive growth with smart risk management URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/redefining-drawdown-how-to-balance-aggressive-growth-with-smart-risk-management-202608120823 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 08:23:24 GMT
[10] Indian Rupee: CPI and RBI repo rate risk skew higher - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-cpi-and-rbi-repo-rate-risk-skew-higher-mufg-202608120818 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 08:18:24 GMT
[11] Indonesian Rupiah struggles due to weak fundamentals, increased risk aversion URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesian-rupiah-struggles-due-to-weak-fundamentals-increased-risk-aversion-202608120815 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 08:15:17 GMT
[12] Japanese Yen: Interventions signal valuation shift - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-interventions-signal-valuation-shift-dbs-202608120813 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 08:13:07 GMT
[13] Asia FX: Oil rebound keeps importers vulnerable - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/asia-fx-oil-rebound-keeps-importers-vulnerable-ocbc-202608120804 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 08:04:52 GMT
[14] Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) above forecasts (0.2%) in July: Actual (0.3%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-consumer-price-index-mom-above-forecasts-02-in-july-actual-03-202608120803 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 08:03:58 GMT
[15] Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.9%, above expectations (2.8%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-consumer-price-index-yoy-came-in-at-29-above-expectations-28-in-july-202608120803 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 08:03:41 GMT
[16] Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) in line with forecasts (2.9%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-consumer-price-index-eu-norm-yoy-in-line-with-forecasts-29-in-july-202608120803 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 08:03:03 GMT
[17] Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) meets expectations (-1%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-consumer-price-index-eu-norm-mom-meets-expectations-1-in-july-202608120802 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 08:02:21 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Ground attack on Iran is a 'delusional' idea, border chief says Time: 2026-08-12T08:35:48.352Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 165 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily β 3.3% of normal
- Throughput: 3.0% of normal (0.3M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 298
- Oil Prices: Brent $88.90 (-8.30%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 50.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $1.8 billion/day economic cost