Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-12 02:01:32 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 29% (2 aligned, 5 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.435 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.03 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +6.9B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 65% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -2.2% slowing Β· real yield 2.40% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.63 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.18 normal, SPY/TNX -0.28 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.64 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.3 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 136 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 5.95 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 19 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +1.0% yen weakening, MOVE 78 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.70% benign, NFCI -0.529 loose |
Divergence read: Moderate divergence β gamma, breadth, and inflation flash bullish while SPY tracks bearish. 5 of 7 signals disagree with price.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 76/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 76 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β energy regime RISING and DIX below threshold (0.435) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 5 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $83, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.435; GEX positive at 6.9B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.3 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $770.79 | 50 SMA $747.56 | 200 SMA $703.48 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $758.66
- QQQ: $718.81 | 50 SMA $714.27 | 200 SMA $648.40 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $708.48
- IWM: $301.07 | 50 SMA $294.03 | 200 SMA $267.44 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $292.65
- VIX: 15.28 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.684%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $770.79 | 66.78 | 57.8 | $758.66 | Neutral | 0.99 |
| QQQ | $718.81 | 54.61 | 66.2 | $708.48 | Neutral | 1.12 |
| IWM | $301.07 | 54.69 | 29.1 | $292.65 | Neutral | 0.69 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.28 | 43.97 | 61.6 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.32 |
| TNX | 46.84 | 56.51 | 39.9 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $401.00 | 71.43 | 33.6 | $377.82 | Bearish | 0.27 |
| DXY | 99.82 | 30.58 | 35.4 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $58.50 | 70.78 | 15.1 | $53.37 | Bearish | 0.29 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.435
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.94B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.47% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 64.6%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 72.0%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 497
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.7%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.5%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 85.1% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 83.3% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 78.9% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 78.9% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 75.0% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 68.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 67.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 61.8% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 58.5% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 14.3% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 13.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $83.23 (5d: +10.7%)
- Brent Crude: $88.95 | Spread: $5.72
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8900/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.2800/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.61/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $60.93
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.07
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.627 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.18 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.284 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.644 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.92
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,721,190.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,847,102.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.03 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $583.2B
- Gamma Call Wall: $780 | Put Wall: $770 (Spot: $770.79)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -27,258 contracts (Z +1.81, as of 2026-08-04)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.68%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.95 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.82
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.25% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.29%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 19/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6748.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $907.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,840B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,837B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,046B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,723B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,730 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~294h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~54h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.644 with energy in RISING β crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: naaim_exposure has printed the same value (79.7) for 10 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is weekly (~5 trading day(s); freeze bar 10). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.38%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β8.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (β15.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β1.9% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (β4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β1.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.2% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (23):
[1] Zcash Price Forecast: ZEC below $500 puts bulls under pressure, 100-day EMA in focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/zcash-price-forecast-zec-below-500-puts-bulls-under-pressure-100-day-ema-in-focus-202608120600 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 06:00:33 GMT
[2] Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.8%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-consumer-price-index-mom-meets-forecasts-08-in-july-202608120600 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 06:00:07 GMT
[3] Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) in line with expectations (2.8%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-consumer-price-index-yoy-in-line-with-expectations-28-in-july-202608120600 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 06:00:07 GMT
[4] Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) meets expectations (2.8%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-yoy-meets-expectations-28-in-july-202608120600 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 06:00:07 GMT
[5] Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) meets expectations (0.9%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-mom-meets-expectations-09-in-july-202608120600 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 06:00:05 GMT
[6] Markets quiet, awaiting US July CPI tonight for direction URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/markets-quiet-awaiting-us-july-cpi-tonight-for-direction-202608120553 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 05:53:08 GMT
[7] Euro trades with caution against US Dollar in countdown to US CPI data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-trades-with-caution-against-us-dollar-in-countdown-to-us-cpi-data-202608120551 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 05:51:44 GMT
[8] Copper, Gold, Platinum and Oil: What is driving the commodity markets right now? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/copper-gold-platinum-and-oil-what-is-driving-the-commodity-markets-right-now-202608120543 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 05:43:00 GMT
[9] US CPI to set the tone URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/us-cpi-to-set-the-tone-202608120538 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 05:38:44 GMT
[10] Cryptocurrencies Price Prediction: Solana, Chainlink & Bitcoin - Asian Wrap 12 August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-solana-chainlink-bitcoin-asian-wrap-12-august-202608120530 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 05:30:42 GMT
[11] Indian Rupee falls further as oil prices extend surge, India-US CPI awaited URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-falls-further-as-oil-prices-extend-surge-india-us-cpi-awaited-202608120529 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 05:29:36 GMT
[12] Solana Price Forecast: SOL holds above 50-day EMA as ETF inflows, MoneyGram integration boost outlook URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/solana-price-forecast-sol-holds-above-50-day-ema-as-etf-inflows-moneygram-integration-boost-outlook-202608120524 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 05:24:39 GMT
[13] EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Steadies near 184.00 amid neutral bias URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-price-forecast-steadies-near-18400-amid-neutral-bias-202608120515 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 05:15:10 GMT
[14] Elliott Wave view Russell 2000 impulse set to extend higher [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/elliott-wave-view-russell-2000-impulse-set-to-extend-higher-video-202608120511 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 05:11:25 GMT
[15] Saudi Arabia Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/saudi-arabia-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608120505 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 05:05:16 GMT
[16] Philippines Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/philippines-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608120500 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 05:00:40 GMT
[17] WTI Price Forecast: Bulls retain control near 38.2% Fibo.; move beyond $83.00 awaited URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-price-forecast-bulls-retain-control-near-382-fibo-move-beyond-8300-awaited-202608120456 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 04:56:54 GMT
[18] United Arab Emirates Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-arab-emirates-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608120455 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 04:55:09 GMT
[19] Morning briefing: Euro is ready for a dip from current levels to fall below 1.1500 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/morning-briefing-euro-is-ready-for-a-dip-from-current-levels-to-fall-below-11500-202608120449 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 04:49:20 GMT
[20] Pakistan Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pakistan-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608120445 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 04:45:07 GMT
[21] India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608120435 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 04:35:12 GMT
[22] Malaysia Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/malaysia-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608120430 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 04:30:27 GMT
[23] United States Dollar Index rises to near 100.00 ahead of US inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-rises-to-near-10000-ahead-of-us-inflation-data-202608120403 Published: Wed, 12 Aug 2026 04:03:32 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (3):
[1] US naval blockade will ultimately fail, Iranian lawmaker says Time: 2026-08-12T05:45:40.101Z
[2] Hormuz shipping traffic falls to one-week low - Reuters Time: 2026-08-12T05:30:02.367Z
[3] Strait of Hormuz to remain closed until war ends, official says Time: 2026-08-12T04:39:32.669Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 165 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily β 3.3% of normal
- Throughput: 3.0% of normal (0.3M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 150
- Oil Prices: Brent $88.90 (-8.30%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS158 (+216% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost