Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-10 08:01:34 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.5% (3d) | Alignment: 86% (6 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	DIX 0.455 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.94 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +9.1B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 67% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Copper/Gold -2.6% slowing · real yield 2.41% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.65 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.21 normal, SPY/TNX -0.31 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.64 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 14.9 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 133 normal · VVIX/VIX 6.07 dealer fear
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 17 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d +0.1% stable, MOVE 72 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.71% benign, NFCI -0.529 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally — gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (86% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 86/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.455; GEX positive at 9.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $773.00 | 50 SMA $746.73 | 200 SMA $702.46 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $772.89
QQQ: $722.95 | 50 SMA $714.70 | 200 SMA $647.30 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $704.57
IWM: $301.78 | 50 SMA $293.65 | 200 SMA $266.91 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $294.56
VIX: 14.90 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.660%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$773.00	66.58	58.9	$772.89	Neutral	0.84
QQQ	$722.95	57.31	67.4	$704.57	Bearish	0.19
IWM	$301.78	55.58	29.8	$294.56	Bearish	0.33

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	14.90	37.16	63.6	$10.51	Neutral	1.21
TNX	46.60	61.06	41.0	-	-	-
GLD	$399.10	67.76	31.7	$376.11	Bearish	0.24
DXY	99.60	29.53	37.1	-	-	-
SLV	$57.67	68.15	13.9	$53.09	Bearish	0.08

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.455
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 9.05B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.97%
2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 67.0%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 73.2%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 497
Mag 7 Concentration: 32.0%
Top 10 Concentration: 42.1%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Financials	89.6%	0/0
Health Care	81.5%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	74.6%	0/0
Communication Services	73.7%	0/0
Industrials	68.7%	0/0
Materials	66.7%	0/0
Consumer Staples	64.7%	0/0
Technology	58.5%	0/0
Energy	52.6%	0/0
Real Estate	46.4%	0/0
Utilities	16.7%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $77.08 (5d: -4.1%)
Brent Crude: $82.27 | Spread: $5.19
RBOB Gasoline: $2.7100/gal
Heating Oil: $3.8800/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $53.12/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $57.50
UNG (Nat Gas): $9.74

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.648	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.209	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.311	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.635	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 72.03
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 4,178,079.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,938,808.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.94 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $627.6B
Gamma Call Wall: $780 | Put Wall: $767 (Spot: $773.00)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -27,258 contracts (Z +1.81, as of 2026-08-04)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.66%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.95 (Normal)
DXY: 99.60
Growth vs Value: 0.94
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.23% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.26%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.29%
Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6748.6B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $907.3B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.4B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,840B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,867B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,071B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,778B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $65,062 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] VVIX/VIX ratio at 6.1 — vol-of-vol outpacing VIX, uncertainty about uncertainty rising.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.455, GEX +9.1B, HY OAS 2.71%, breadth 67%.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~244h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 19 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: acm_term_premium_10y has printed the same value (0.87) for 5 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 82 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_max_pain has printed the same value (735.0) for 28 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.40%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Employment Situation (Payrolls): ⏳ Pending

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑8.1% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.5% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓1.6% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑1.9% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (23):

[1] US Dollar: Fed pricing shifts with softer data - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-fed-pricing-shifts-with-softer-data-deutsche-bank-202608101158 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 11:58:26 GMT

[2] Australian Dollar approaches two-month highs at 0.7088 with RBA decision on tap URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-approaches-two-month-highs-at-07088-with-rba-decision-on-tap-202608101155 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 11:55:00 GMT

[3] EUR/USD Price Forecast: On verge of downward-trendline breakout URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-on-verge-of-downward-trendline-breakout-202608101146 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 11:46:33 GMT

[4] Federal Reserve: September hike odds reassessed - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/federal-reserve-september-hike-odds-reassessed-rabobank-202608101145 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 11:45:51 GMT

[5] Copper: Tariff-driven arbitrage reshapes COMEX-LME spread - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/copper-tariff-driven-arbitrage-reshapes-comex-lme-spread-societe-generale-202608101137 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 11:37:23 GMT

[6] Gold holds firm as Fed rate outlook, Middle East developments remain in focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-holds-firm-as-fed-rate-outlook-middle-east-developments-remain-in-focus-202608101127 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 11:27:31 GMT

[7] Japanese Yen underperforms on surprising current account deficit URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-underperforms-on-surprising-current-account-deficit-202608101125 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 11:25:55 GMT

[8] Gold: Central bank demand underpins rally - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-central-bank-demand-underpins-rally-ing-202608101123 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 11:23:15 GMT

[9] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD remains bullish, pushing against $4,380 resistance URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-remains-bullish-pushing-against-4-380-resistance-202608101112 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 11:12:20 GMT

[10] Job numbers don't cut it URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/job-numbers-dont-cut-it-202608101109 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 11:09:25 GMT

[11] US Dollar: Softer labor data supports downside - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-softer-labor-data-supports-downside-bny-202608101107 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 11:07:40 GMT

[12] Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP eye short-term recovery amid ETF inflows URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-today-bitcoin-ethereum-xrp-eye-short-term-recovery-amid-etf-inflows-202608101105 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 11:05:58 GMT

[13] Bitcoin volatility is in meltdown, but downside protection still commands a premium URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-volatility-is-in-meltdown-but-downside-protection-still-commands-a-premium-202608101104 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 11:04:44 GMT

[14] Experts agree: The US Dollar rally migh have come to an end URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/experts-agree-the-us-dollar-rally-migh-have-come-to-an-end-202608101102 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 11:02:43 GMT

[15] The Dollar let the labour market down URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-dollar-let-the-labour-market-down-202608101052 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 10:52:48 GMT

[16] Quiet price action as focus remains on the Middle East and ever-eluding agreements URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/quiet-price-action-as-focus-remains-on-the-middle-east-and-ever-eluding-agreements-202608101050 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 10:50:45 GMT

[17] Weak jobs data sparks stock rally - Gold surges as rate-hike odds fall, Oil rises on Iran demands URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/weak-jobs-data-sparks-stock-rally-gold-surges-as-rate-hike-odds-fall-oil-rises-on-iran-demands-202608101033 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 10:33:59 GMT

[18] British Pound tests 1.3500 as US Dollar struggles to shake off NFP shock URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-tests-13500-as-us-dollar-struggles-to-shake-off-nfp-shock-202608101027 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 10:27:18 GMT

[19] Oil breaks out as Hormuz risk keeps bulls in play URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/oil-breaks-out-as-hormuz-risk-keeps-bulls-in-play-202608101027 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 10:27:15 GMT

[20] Worldcoin Price Forecast: WLD advances on Eightco buying, firm retail demand URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/worldcoin-price-forecast-wld-advances-on-eightco-buying-firm-retail-demand-202608101026 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 10:26:32 GMT

[21] UK markets 'taking their cue' from positive data as Burnham fiscal concerns fade URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/uk-markets-taking-their-cue-from-positive-data-as-burnham-fiscal-concerns-fade-202608101023 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 10:23:30 GMT

[22] Norwegian Krone: Policy hold guidance in focus - Nomura URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/norwegian-krone-policy-hold-guidance-in-focus-nomura-202608101006 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 10:06:57 GMT

[23] Weekly forex forecast: EUR/USD, XAU/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, Bitcoin and more [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/weekly-forex-forecast-eur-usd-xau-usd-gbp-usd-usd-jpy-bitcoin-and-more-video-202608101004 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 10:04:41 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (7):

[1] Revolutionary Guards says Iran missiles gain mid-flight guidance Time: 2026-08-10T11:29:18.656Z

[2] Iran says online platforms cannot be blocked without president's approval Time: 2026-08-10T11:25:02.536Z

[3] Video: Hormuz was open 'since the dawn of humanity' until US strikes, Iran says Time: 2026-08-10T11:13:59.985Z

[4] Israel slams Rezaei appointment over AMIA bombing Time: 2026-08-10T10:46:10.890Z

[5] UAE says it thwarted cyberattacks on aviation, energy sectors Time: 2026-08-10T10:43:20.075Z

[6] Lawmaker calls Islamabad agreement 'dead,' rejects trust in Trump Time: 2026-08-10T10:40:07.561Z

[7] MP says any Hormuz deal with Oman needs parliament approval Time: 2026-08-10T09:55:45.940Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 163 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily — 2.7% of normal
Throughput: 3.0% of normal (0.3M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 235
Oil Prices: Brent $88.90 (-8.30%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 33.3x normal
Tanker Rates: WS220 (+340% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost