Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-10 08:32:27 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.5% (3d) | Alignment: 86% (6 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.455 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.94 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +9.1B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 67% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Copper/Gold -3.5% growth pessimism Β· real yield 2.41% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.65 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.21 normal, SPY/TNX -0.31 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.64 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.4 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 133 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 5.85 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 17 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.8% stable, MOVE 72 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.71% benign, NFCI -0.529 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally β gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (86% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 86/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.455; GEX positive at 9.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.4 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: BX, FSLR, IEX
- Shorts: WTW, VLY
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 14% (n=240) | 3d 36% (n=240) | 5d 32% (n=240)
- Screener Board Record: 142 closed (hit rate 46%) Β· 154 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $772.97 | 50 SMA $747.19 | 200 SMA $702.97 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $758.92
- QQQ: $722.58 | 50 SMA $714.57 | 200 SMA $647.85 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $708.48
- IWM: $300.90 | 50 SMA $293.87 | 200 SMA $267.17 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $292.56
- VIX: 15.40 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.662%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $772.97 | 69.55 | 58.0 | $758.92 | Bearish | 0.48 |
| QQQ | $722.58 | 59.64 | 66.2 | $708.48 | Neutral | 0.65 |
| IWM | $300.90 | 61.77 | 28.8 | $292.56 | Neutral | 0.70 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.40 | 36.82 | 62.1 | $10.64 | Neutral | 1.17 |
| TNX | 46.62 | 55.78 | 39.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $397.27 | 72.76 | 33.5 | $375.50 | Bearish | 0.27 |
| DXY | 99.73 | 28.23 | 37.9 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $57.75 | 71.14 | 14.2 | $53.09 | Bearish | 0.31 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.455
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 9.05B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 67.0%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 73.2%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 497
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.0%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 89.6% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 81.5% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 74.6% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 73.7% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 68.7% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 66.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 64.7% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 58.5% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 52.6% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 46.4% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 16.7% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $79.44 (5d: +4.8%)
- Brent Crude: $84.88 | Spread: $5.44
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.7900/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.0500/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $55.38/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.50
- UNG (Nat Gas): $9.74
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.648 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.209 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.311 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.635 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 72.03
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.94 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $627.6B
- Gamma Call Wall: $780 | Put Wall: $767 (Spot: $772.97)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -27,258 contracts (Z +1.81, as of 2026-08-04)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.66%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.95 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.73
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.23% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.26%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.29%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6748.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $907.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.4B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,840B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,867B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,071B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,778B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,999 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.455, GEX +9.1B, HY OAS 2.71%, breadth 67%.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 19 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: acm_term_premium_10y has printed the same value (0.87) for 5 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 82 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_max_pain has printed the same value (735.0) for 28 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_put_wall has printed the same value (740.0) for 26 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_call_wall has printed the same value (750.0) for 27 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.40%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β8.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (β15.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (β4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β1.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β1.9% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (6):
[1] Japanese Yen: BoJ tightening risks support JPY - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-boj-tightening-risks-support-jpy-bny-202608101230 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 12:30:34 GMT
[2] Oil: Strait risk and cautious positioning - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-strait-risk-and-cautious-positioning-ing-202608101220 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 12:20:19 GMT
[3] Silver tests $65: Why are buyers struggling to extend the rally? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-tests-65-why-are-buyers-struggling-to-extend-the-rally-202608101217 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 12:17:09 GMT
[4] Cryptocurrencies Price Prediction: Bitcoin, Worldcoin & Crypto - European Wrap 10 August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-bitcoin-worldcoin-crypto-european-wrap-10-august-202608101211 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 12:11:59 GMT
[5] Norwegian Krone: Rate hike odds slashed after soft inflation - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/norwegian-krone-rate-hike-odds-slashed-after-soft-inflation-bbh-202608101208 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 12:08:01 GMT
[6] Canadian Dollar steadies, caught between risk aversion, rebounding Oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-steadies-caught-between-risk-aversion-rebounding-oil-prices-202608101203 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 12:03:23 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Iraq says unauthorized drone launches will be treated as terrorism Time: 2026-08-10T11:37:48.100Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 163 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily β 2.7% of normal
- Throughput: 3.0% of normal (0.3M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 235
- Oil Prices: Brent $88.90 (-8.30%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS220 (+340% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost