Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-10 06:01:28 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.5% (3d) | Alignment: 86% (6 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	DIX 0.455 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.94 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +9.1B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 67% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Copper/Gold -2.6% slowing · real yield 2.41% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.65 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.21 normal, SPY/TNX -0.31 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.64 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 14.9 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 133 normal · VVIX/VIX 6.07 dealer fear
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 17 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d +0.1% stable, MOVE 72 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.71% benign, NFCI -0.529 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally — gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (86% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 86/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.455; GEX positive at 9.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $773.00 | 50 SMA $746.73 | 200 SMA $702.46 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $772.89
QQQ: $722.95 | 50 SMA $714.70 | 200 SMA $647.30 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $704.57
IWM: $301.78 | 50 SMA $293.65 | 200 SMA $266.91 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $294.56
VIX: 14.90 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.660%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$773.00	66.58	58.9	$772.89	Neutral	0.84
QQQ	$722.95	57.31	67.4	$704.57	Bearish	0.19
IWM	$301.78	55.58	29.8	$294.56	Bearish	0.33

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	14.90	37.16	63.6	$10.51	Neutral	1.21
TNX	46.60	61.06	41.0	-	-	-
GLD	$399.10	67.76	31.7	$376.11	Bearish	0.24
DXY	99.60	29.53	37.1	-	-	-
SLV	$57.67	68.15	13.9	$53.09	Bearish	0.08

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.455
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 9.05B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.97%
2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 67.0%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 73.2%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 497
Mag 7 Concentration: 32.0%
Top 10 Concentration: 42.1%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Financials	89.6%	0/0
Health Care	81.5%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	74.6%	0/0
Communication Services	73.7%	0/0
Industrials	68.7%	0/0
Materials	66.7%	0/0
Consumer Staples	64.7%	0/0
Technology	58.5%	0/0
Energy	52.6%	0/0
Real Estate	46.4%	0/0
Utilities	16.7%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $77.08 (5d: -4.1%)
Brent Crude: $82.27 | Spread: $5.19
RBOB Gasoline: $2.7100/gal
Heating Oil: $3.8800/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $53.12/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $57.50
UNG (Nat Gas): $9.74

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.648	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.209	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.311	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.635	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 72.03
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 4,178,079.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,938,808.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.94 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $627.6B
Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $763 (Spot: $773.00)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -27,258 contracts (Z +1.81, as of 2026-08-04)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.66%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.95 (Normal)
DXY: 99.60
Growth vs Value: 0.94
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.23% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.26%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.29%
Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6748.6B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $907.3B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.4B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,840B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,867B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,071B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,778B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,911 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] VVIX/VIX ratio at 6.1 — vol-of-vol outpacing VIX, uncertainty about uncertainty rising.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.455, GEX +9.1B, HY OAS 2.71%, breadth 67%.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~244h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~100h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 19 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: acm_term_premium_10y has printed the same value (0.87) for 5 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.40%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Employment Situation (Payrolls): ⏳ Pending

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑8.1% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.5% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓1.6% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑1.9% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (28):

[1] USD Index outlook: Key technical support zone remains under increased pressure URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/usd-index-outlook-key-technical-support-zone-remains-under-increased-pressure-202608101000 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 10:00:30 GMT

[2] GBP/USD starts the week on a strong footing URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gbp-usd-starts-the-week-on-a-strong-footing-202608100957 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 09:57:46 GMT

[3] CEE FX: Data-heavy week under global pressure - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/cee-fx-data-heavy-week-under-global-pressure-ing-202608100954 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 09:54:06 GMT

[4] Bitcoin Price Forecast: Bulls regain ground as BTC reclaims $65,000 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-price-forecast-bulls-regain-ground-as-btc-reclaims-65-000-202608100952 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 09:52:53 GMT

[5] Euro: Fed repricing supports gains against US Dollar - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-fed-repricing-supports-gains-against-us-dollar-societe-generale-202608100944 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 09:44:23 GMT

[6] Bitcoin consolidates around $65K, setting its sights on $70K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-consolidates-around-65k-setting-its-sights-on-70k-202608100943 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 09:43:13 GMT

[7] Australian Dollar: Hawkish RBA hold supports carry - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-hawkish-rba-hold-supports-carry-bbh-202608100935 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 09:35:51 GMT

[8] Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608100931 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 09:31:24 GMT

[9] Canadian Dollar: Recovery against US Dollar faces tariff risks - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-recovery-against-us-dollar-faces-tariff-risks-commerzbank-202608100922 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 09:22:37 GMT

[10] Brent: Iran talks keep risk premium in focus - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-iran-talks-keep-risk-premium-in-focus-deutsche-bank-202608100913 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 09:13:36 GMT

[11] The commodities feed: Oil higher as supply risks persist URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-commodities-feed-oil-higher-as-supply-risks-persist-202608100909 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 09:09:00 GMT

[12] New Zealand Dollar stalls below 0.5900 as US Dollar regains safe-haven appeal URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-stalls-below-05900-as-us-dollar-regains-safe-haven-appeal-202608100906 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 09:06:39 GMT

[13] Romanian Leu: Rating relief but NBR stays cautious - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/romanian-leu-rating-relief-but-nbr-stays-cautious-ing-202608100904 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 09:04:42 GMT

[14] Euro advances against Canadian Dollar as Eurozone Investor Confidence rises in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-advances-against-canadian-dollar-as-eurozone-investor-confidence-rises-in-august-202608100901 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 09:01:20 GMT

[15] Euro holds gains near seven-week highs as economic sentiment improves URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-holds-gains-near-seven-week-highs-as-economic-sentiment-improves-202608100901 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 09:01:05 GMT

[16] Greece Industrial Production (YoY) fell from previous 3.9% to 1.1% in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/greece-industrial-production-yoy-fell-from-previous-39-to-11-in-june-202608100859 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 08:59:51 GMT

[17] USD/CHF Price Forecast: Struggles below 0.8100 as bears eye 50-SMA pivotal support URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-price-forecast-struggles-below-08100-as-bears-eye-50-sma-pivotal-support-202608100859 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 08:59:04 GMT

[18] Japanese Yen: Intervention faces persistent rate gap - HSBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-intervention-faces-persistent-rate-gap-hsbc-202608100849 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 08:49:33 GMT

[19] WTI comes off from day's high as investors seeks clarity on Hormuz reopening URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-comes-off-from-days-high-as-investors-seeks-clarity-on-hormuz-reopening-202608100849 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 08:49:22 GMT

[20] Silver outlook remains positive [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/silver-outlook-remains-positive-video-202608100845 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 08:45:37 GMT

[21] US Dollar: Softer labour data shifts Fed outlook - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-softer-labour-data-shifts-fed-outlook-societe-generale-202608100837 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 08:37:32 GMT

[22] Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence turns positive to 0.9 in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-sentix-investor-confidence-turns-positive-to-09-in-august-202608100831 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 08:31:26 GMT

[23] Dow futures remain steady amid rising oil, diminishing Fed cut odds URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-futures-remain-steady-amid-rising-oil-diminishing-fed-cut-odds-202608100830 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 08:30:49 GMT

[24] Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence rose from previous -3.1 to 0.9 in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-sentix-investor-confidence-rose-from-previous-31-to-09-in-august-202608100830 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 08:30:01 GMT

[25] Australian Dollar: RBA set to hold amid inflation risks - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-rba-set-to-hold-amid-inflation-risks-bny-202608100817 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 08:17:14 GMT

[26] US Payrolls miss - RBA on deck tomorrow URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/us-payrolls-miss-rba-on-deck-tomorrow-202608100811 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 08:11:41 GMT

[27] Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD confirms a bullish H&S targeting $67.17 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecasts-xag-usd-confirms-a-bullish-hs-targeting-6717-202608100811 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 08:11:13 GMT

[28] August 2026 EU monthly news URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/august-2026-eu-monthly-news-202608100808 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 08:08:43 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (7):

[1] Iran deputy speaker says US must accept new order in Strait of Hormuz Time: 2026-08-10T09:42:45.333Z

[2] Video: iran-backed Houthis launch missiles and drones toward Yemen's Mocha Time: 2026-08-10T09:30:43.315Z

[3] Video: Bandar Abbas drivers queue for hours amid fuel shortage Time: 2026-08-10T09:29:14.348Z

[4] Iran MPs challenge Pezeshkian's expanded powers over internet Time: 2026-08-10T09:16:16.803Z

[5] Iran says Caspian Sea pact unrelated to recent war Time: 2026-08-10T08:20:03.521Z

[6] Iran ties reopening Strait of Hormuz to end of US naval blockade Time: 2026-08-10T07:52:10.525Z

[7] Iran says regional states cannot rely on US for security Time: 2026-08-10T07:43:18.377Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 163 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily — 2.7% of normal
Throughput: 2.0% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 229
Oil Prices: Brent $88.90 (-8.30%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 56.7x normal
Tanker Rates: WS185 (+270% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost