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2026-W33

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-10 04:01:12 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.5% (3d) | Alignment: 86% (6 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β€” Strong alignment β€” structural signals confirm price direction

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” DIX 0.455 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.94 balanced
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED GEX +9.1B strong suppression
Breadth 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Breadth 67% β€” broad participation supports rally
Energy 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Energy STABLE β€” no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ— DIVERGENT Copper/Gold -2.6% slowing Β· real yield 2.41% restrictive
Correlations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” SPY/VIX -0.65 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.21 normal, SPY/TNX -0.31 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.64 stretched
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 14.9 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 133 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 6.07 dealer fear
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Stagflation score 17 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED USD/JPY 5d +0.1% stable, MOVE 72 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β€” hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED HY OAS 2.71% benign, NFCI -0.529 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally β€” gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (86% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 86/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.455; GEX positive at 9.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $773.00 | 50 SMA $746.73 | 200 SMA $702.46 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $772.89
  • QQQ: $722.95 | 50 SMA $714.70 | 200 SMA $647.30 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $704.57
  • IWM: $301.78 | 50 SMA $293.65 | 200 SMA $266.91 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $294.56
  • VIX: 14.90 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.660%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $773.00 66.58 58.9 $772.89 Neutral 0.84
QQQ $722.95 57.31 67.4 $704.57 Bearish 0.19
IWM $301.78 55.58 29.8 $294.56 Bearish 0.33

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 14.90 37.16 63.6 $10.51 Neutral 1.21
TNX 46.60 61.06 41.0 - - -
GLD $399.10 67.76 31.7 $376.11 Bearish 0.24
DXY 99.60 29.53 37.1 - - -
SLV $57.67 68.15 13.9 $53.09 Bearish 0.08

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.455
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 9.05B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.97%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 67.0%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 73.2%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 497
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 32.0%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 42.1%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Financials 89.6% 0/0
Health Care 81.5% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 74.6% 0/0
Communication Services 73.7% 0/0
Industrials 68.7% 0/0
Materials 66.7% 0/0
Consumer Staples 64.7% 0/0
Technology 58.5% 0/0
Energy 52.6% 0/0
Real Estate 46.4% 0/0
Utilities 16.7% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: STABLE
  • WTI Crude: $77.08 (5d: -4.1%)
  • Brent Crude: $82.27 | Spread: $5.19
  • RBOB Gasoline: $2.7100/gal
  • Heating Oil: $3.8800/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $53.12/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $57.50
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $9.74

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.648 elevated
SPY / DXY -0.209 normal
SPY / TNX -0.311 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.635 stretched

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 72.03
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 4,178,079.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 3,938,808.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.94 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $627.6B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $763 (Spot: $773.00)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
  • Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -27,258 contracts (Z +1.81, as of 2026-08-04)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.66%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.95 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.60
  • Growth vs Value: 0.94
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.23% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.26%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.29%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6748.6B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $907.3B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.4B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,840B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,867B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,071B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,778B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $65,180 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [WARNING] VVIX/VIX ratio at 6.1 β€” vol-of-vol outpacing VIX, uncertainty about uncertainty rising.
  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.455, GEX +9.1B, HY OAS 2.71%, breadth 67%.
  • [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β€” normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
  • [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β€” systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~244h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~100h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~76h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 19 consecutive trading days β€” publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: August
  • Average Return: +0.40%
  • Median Return: +1.41%
  • Hit Rate: 65%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): ⏳ Pending

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
  • Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
  • Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑8.1% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.5% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓1.6% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑1.9% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (28):

[1] Swedish Krona: Hormuz reopening could lift SEK against NOK - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swedish-krona-hormuz-reopening-could-lift-sek-against-nok-commerzbank-202608100754 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 07:54:13 GMT

[2] Momentum builds across markets as RBA and US CPI take centre stage URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/momentum-builds-across-markets-as-rba-and-us-cpi-take-centre-stage-202608100754 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 07:54:12 GMT

[3] Pi Network Price Forecast: Mild bearish bias caps PI corrective rebound URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/pi-network-price-forecast-mild-bearish-bias-caps-pi-corrective-rebound-202608100745 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 07:45:10 GMT

[4] US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Decline to accelerate below 99.40 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-price-forecast-decline-to-accelerate-below-9940-202608100744 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 07:44:11 GMT

[5] Brent: Cautious trade with geopolitical risks - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-cautious-trade-with-geopolitical-risks-rabobank-202608100736 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 07:36:26 GMT

[6] EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Positions above nine-day EMA near 183.00 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-price-forecast-positions-above-nine-day-ema-near-18300-202608100732 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 07:32:04 GMT

[7] British Pound: Soft GDP could trigger dovish BoE repricing - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-soft-gdp-could-trigger-dovish-boe-repricing-bbh-202608100725 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 07:25:32 GMT

[8] Australian Dollar flat above 0.7050 vs USD, close to June 16 peak as traders await RBA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-flat-above-07050-vs-usd-close-to-june-16-peak-as-traders-await-rba-202608100723 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 07:23:11 GMT

[9] Equities: Falling oil and AI rebound drive record highs - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-falling-oil-and-ai-rebound-drive-record-highs-deutsche-bank-202608100714 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 07:14:33 GMT

[10] Euro dips further against the British Pound, weighed by higher Oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-dips-further-against-the-british-pound-hit-by-higher-oil-prices-202608100712 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 07:12:11 GMT

[11] Canadian Dollar weakens as US Dollar strengthens on rising risk aversion URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-weakens-as-us-dollar-strengthens-on-rising-risk-aversion-202608100709 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 07:09:26 GMT

[12] Japanese Yen: Intervention credibility questioned - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-intervention-credibility-questioned-bny-202608100703 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 07:03:00 GMT

[13] Gold moves higher as weak employment data eases rate hike concerns URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-moves-higher-as-weak-employment-data-eases-rate-hike-concerns-202608100702 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 07:02:09 GMT

[14] Turkey Industrial Production (YoY) down to -1.4% in June from previous 0% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkey-industrial-production-yoy-down-to-14-in-june-from-previous-0-202608100700 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 07:00:42 GMT

[15] Slovakia Industrial Output (YoY) above forecasts (-0.6%) in June: Actual (2.1%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/slovakia-industrial-output-yoy-above-forecasts-06-in-june-actual-21-202608100700 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 07:00:18 GMT

[16] Austria Industrial Production (YoY) down to 0% in June from previous 0.7% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/austria-industrial-production-yoy-down-to-0-in-june-from-previous-07-202608100700 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 07:00:14 GMT

[17] Forex Today: Post-NFP US Dollar selloff pauses URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-post-nfp-us-dollar-selloff-pauses-202608100651 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 06:51:15 GMT

[18] S&P 500 is testing the top of a four-year logarithmic channel URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sp-500-is-testing-the-top-of-a-four-year-logarithmic-channel-202608100643 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 06:43:10 GMT

[19] Australian Dollar: Hawkish risk before RBA - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-hawkish-risk-before-rba-commerzbank-202608100640 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 06:40:32 GMT

[20] British Pound outperforms at the start of the UK Q2 GDP data week URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-outperforms-at-the-start-of-the-uk-q2-gdp-data-week-202608100633 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 06:33:13 GMT

[21] USD/JPY Price Forecast: Bounces up from lows with bulls aiming for 158.65 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-bounces-up-from-lows-with-bulls-aiming-for-15865-202608100630 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 06:30:02 GMT

[22] Euro: Weak US jobs lift EUR against US Dollar on Fed repricing - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-weak-us-jobs-lift-eur-against-us-dollar-on-fed-repricing-danske-bank-202608100626 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 06:26:44 GMT

[23] CEE: The world food price index on the rise URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/cee-the-world-food-price-index-on-the-rise-202608100616 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 06:16:09 GMT

[24] CEE: Romania's growth and inflation in focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/cee-romanias-growth-and-inflation-in-focus-202608100604 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 06:04:32 GMT

[25] Denmark Trade Balance declined to 28.7B in June from previous 28.9B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/denmark-trade-balance-declined-to-287b-in-june-from-previous-289b-202608100602 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 06:02:52 GMT

[26] Denmark Current Account: 32.5B (June) vs 30.7B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/denmark-current-account-325b-june-vs-307b-202608100602 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 06:02:04 GMT

[27] Norway Consumer Price Index (MoM) rose from previous 0.4% to 1% in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/norway-consumer-price-index-mom-rose-from-previous-04-to-1-in-july-202608100601 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 06:01:50 GMT

[28] Norway Core Inflation (MoM): 0.8% (July) vs 0.4% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/norway-core-inflation-mom-08-july-vs-04-202608100601 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 06:01:38 GMT

Iran War News

No new Iran International updates since last report.

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 163 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily β€” 3.3% of normal
  • Throughput: 3.0% of normal (0.3M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 280
  • Oil Prices: Brent $88.90 (-8.30%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 53.3x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS285 (+470% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost