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2026-W33

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-10 02:01:32 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.5% (3d) | Alignment: 86% (6 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β€” Strong alignment β€” structural signals confirm price direction

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” DIX 0.455 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.94 balanced
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED GEX +9.1B strong suppression
Breadth 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Breadth 67% β€” broad participation supports rally
Energy 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Energy STABLE β€” no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ— DIVERGENT Copper/Gold -2.6% slowing Β· real yield 2.41% restrictive
Correlations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” SPY/VIX -0.65 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.21 normal, SPY/TNX -0.31 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.64 stretched
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 14.9 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 133 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 6.07 dealer fear
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Stagflation score 17 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED USD/JPY 5d +0.1% stable, MOVE 72 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β€” hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED HY OAS 2.71% benign, NFCI -0.529 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally β€” gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (86% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 86/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.455; GEX positive at 9.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $773.00 | 50 SMA $746.73 | 200 SMA $702.46 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $772.89
  • QQQ: $722.95 | 50 SMA $714.70 | 200 SMA $647.30 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $704.57
  • IWM: $301.78 | 50 SMA $293.65 | 200 SMA $266.91 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $294.56
  • VIX: 14.90 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.660%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $773.00 66.58 58.9 $772.89 Neutral 0.84
QQQ $722.95 57.31 67.4 $704.57 Bearish 0.19
IWM $301.78 55.58 29.8 $294.56 Bearish 0.33

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 14.90 37.16 63.6 $10.51 Neutral 1.21
TNX 46.60 61.06 41.0 - - -
GLD $399.10 67.76 31.7 $376.11 Bearish 0.24
DXY 99.60 29.53 37.1 - - -
SLV $57.67 68.15 13.9 $53.09 Bearish 0.08

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.455
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 9.05B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.97%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 67.0%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 73.2%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 497
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 32.0%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 42.1%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Financials 89.6% 0/0
Health Care 81.5% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 74.6% 0/0
Communication Services 73.7% 0/0
Industrials 68.7% 0/0
Materials 66.7% 0/0
Consumer Staples 64.7% 0/0
Technology 58.5% 0/0
Energy 52.6% 0/0
Real Estate 46.4% 0/0
Utilities 16.7% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: STABLE
  • WTI Crude: $77.08 (5d: -4.1%)
  • Brent Crude: $82.27 | Spread: $5.19
  • RBOB Gasoline: $2.7100/gal
  • Heating Oil: $3.8800/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $53.12/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $57.50
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $9.74

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.648 elevated
SPY / DXY -0.209 normal
SPY / TNX -0.311 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.635 stretched

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 72.03
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 4,178,079.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 3,938,808.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.94 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $627.6B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $758 | Put Wall: $775 (Spot: $773.00)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
  • Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -27,258 contracts (Z +1.81, as of 2026-08-04)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.66%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.95 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.60
  • Growth vs Value: 0.94
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.23% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.26%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.29%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6748.6B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $907.3B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.4B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,840B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,867B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,071B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,778B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $65,114 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [WARNING] VVIX/VIX ratio at 6.1 β€” vol-of-vol outpacing VIX, uncertainty about uncertainty rising.
  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.455, GEX +9.1B, HY OAS 2.71%, breadth 67%.
  • [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β€” normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
  • [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β€” systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~244h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~100h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~76h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~76h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: August
  • Average Return: +0.40%
  • Median Return: +1.41%
  • Hit Rate: 65%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): ⏳ Pending

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
  • Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
  • Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑8.1% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.5% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓1.6% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑1.9% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (29):

[1] Sweden New Orders Manufacturing (YoY) climbed from previous 1.3% to 29.9% in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sweden-new-orders-manufacturing-yoy-climbed-from-previous-13-to-299-in-june-202608100600 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 06:00:08 GMT

[2] Sweden Industrial Production Value (YoY) fell from previous 6.9% to -1.5% in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sweden-industrial-production-value-yoy-fell-from-previous-69-to-15-in-june-202608100600 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 06:00:08 GMT

[3] Norway Producer Price Index (YoY) increased to 23.4% in July from previous 14.9% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/norway-producer-price-index-yoy-increased-to-234-in-july-from-previous-149-202608100600 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 06:00:08 GMT

[4] Sweden Industrial Production Value (MoM) dipped from previous 0.2% to -0.4% in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sweden-industrial-production-value-mom-dipped-from-previous-02-to-04-in-june-202608100600 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 06:00:05 GMT

[5] Norway Core Inflation (YoY) remains unchanged at 2.7% in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/norway-core-inflation-yoy-remains-unchanged-at-27-in-july-202608100600 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 06:00:05 GMT

[6] Norway Consumer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 2.7% to 3% in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/norway-consumer-price-index-yoy-climbed-from-previous-27-to-3-in-july-202608100600 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 06:00:04 GMT

[7] Denmark Inflation (HICP) (YoY) fell from previous 1.8% to 1.6% in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/denmark-inflation-hicp-yoy-fell-from-previous-18-to-16-in-july-202608100600 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 06:00:04 GMT

[8] Denmark Consumer Price Index (YoY) fell from previous 1.9% to 1.7% in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/denmark-consumer-price-index-yoy-fell-from-previous-19-to-17-in-july-202608100600 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 06:00:02 GMT

[9] Zcash Price Forecast: ZEC faces headwinds above $500 despite Ironwood adoption surge URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/zcash-price-forecast-zec-faces-headwinds-above-500-despite-ironwood-adoption-surge-202608100600 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 06:00:00 GMT

[10] Markets hold cautiously despite Iran's hardline talk URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/markets-hold-cautiously-despite-irans-hardline-talk-202608100546 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 05:46:14 GMT

[11] EUR/USD Price Forecast: Eyes further upside towards 1.1620 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-eyes-further-upside-towards-11620-202608100543 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 05:43:24 GMT

[12] Weak NFP, yet lower unemployment rate URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/weak-nfp-yet-lower-unemployment-rate-202608100535 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 05:35:49 GMT

[13] EUR/USD strengthens further as buyers press their advantage URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-usd-strengthens-further-as-buyers-press-their-advantage-202608100526 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 05:26:56 GMT

[14] Indian Rupee drops as oil prices extend recovery, downside seems limited URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-drops-as-oil-prices-extend-recovery-downside-seems-limited-202608100524 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 05:24:33 GMT

[15] WTI Price Forecast: Bulls await sustained move above $78.00 amid supply concerns URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-price-forecast-bulls-await-sustained-move-above-7800-amid-supply-concerns-202608100512 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 05:12:57 GMT

[16] Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook rose from previous 45.7 to 45.8 in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-eco-watchers-survey-outlook-rose-from-previous-457-to-458-in-july-202608100511 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 05:11:45 GMT

[17] Saudi Arabia Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/saudi-arabia-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608100505 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 05:05:17 GMT

[18] Indonesian Rupiah struggles as Consumer Confidence drops to weakest level since September 2025 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesian-rupiah-struggles-as-consumer-confidence-drops-to-weakest-level-since-september-2025-202608100503 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 05:03:04 GMT

[19] Philippines Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/philippines-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608100502 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 05:02:58 GMT

[20] Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current came in at 45.7, above expectations (44.4) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-eco-watchers-survey-current-came-in-at-457-above-expectations-444-in-july-202608100500 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 05:00:48 GMT

[21] United Arab Emirates Gold price today: Gold steadies, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-arab-emirates-gold-price-today-gold-steadies-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608100500 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 05:00:21 GMT

[22] Morning briefing: Keeping the Euro within 1.1600-1.1500 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/morning-briefing-keeping-the-euro-within-11600-11500-202608100450 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 04:50:37 GMT

[23] Cryptocurrencies Price Prediction: Cardano, SHIB & Bitcoin - Asian Wrap 10 August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-cardano-shib-bitcoin-asian-wrap-10-august-202608100446 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 04:46:35 GMT

[24] Pakistan Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pakistan-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608100445 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 04:45:05 GMT

[25] India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608100436 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 04:36:49 GMT

[26] Malaysia Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/malaysia-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608100435 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 04:35:49 GMT

[27] Netherlands, The Manufacturing Output (MoM) fell from previous 0.1% to -1.3% in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/netherlands-the-manufacturing-output-mom-fell-from-previous-01-to-13-in-june-202608100430 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 04:30:05 GMT

[28] Cardano Price Forecast: Bulls eye a second leg higher as whales buy URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cardano-price-forecast-bulls-eye-a-second-leg-higher-as-whales-buy-202608100424 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 04:24:50 GMT

[29] Swiss Franc declines as safe-haven demand supports US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-declines-as-safe-haven-demand-supports-us-dollar-202608100424 Published: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 04:24:48 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (1):

[1] Kayhan says regional defense pact must not target Iran allies Time: 2026-08-10T04:36:10.433Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 163 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily β€” 3.3% of normal
  • Throughput: 3.0% of normal (0.3M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 350
  • Oil Prices: Brent $88.90 (-8.30%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 50.0x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS400 (+700% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $1.8 billion/day economic cost