Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-05 06:01:21 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +1.9% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (7 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	DIX 0.452 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.53 call-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +8.5B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 70% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +9.6% growth optimism · real yield 2.43% restrictive
Correlations	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	SPY/VIX -0.72 normal, SPY/DXY -0.26 normal, SPY/TNX -0.35 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.64 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 16.5 sub-20 in contango · VVIX/VIX 5.61 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 18 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	USD/JPY 5d -3.7% yen strengthening, MOVE 78 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.78% benign, NFCI -0.554 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally — dark pool, gamma, and breadth align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 84/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.452; GEX positive at 8.5B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.5 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $772.15 | 50 SMA $745.32 | 200 SMA $700.86 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $747.89
QQQ: $721.78 | 50 SMA $714.83 | 200 SMA $645.55 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $715.99
IWM: $302.19 | 50 SMA $292.82 | 200 SMA $266.10 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $294.07
VIX: 16.50 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.627%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$772.15	53.93	53.0	$747.89	Bearish	13.56
QQQ	$721.78	42.06	61.4	$715.99	Bearish	16.25
IWM	$302.19	52.69	24.0	$294.07	Bearish	0.36

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	16.50	48.00	63.2	$10.50	Neutral	0.99
TNX	46.27 ▲	59.13	34.5	-	-	-
GLD	$374.24	49.58	24.5	$368.75	Neutral	0.53
DXY	99.89	39.95	34.0	-	-	-
SLV	$53.85	47.33	13.8	$41.17	Bearish	0.36

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.452
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.53B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.78% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.97%
2s10s Spread: 0.43% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 69.5%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.8%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.8%
Top 10 Concentration: 42.2%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Financials	94.0%	0/0
Health Care	81.5%	0/0
Communication Services	75.0%	0/0
Energy	73.7%	0/0
Materials	70.8%	0/0
Consumer Staples	70.6%	0/0
Industrials	67.2%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	62.7%	0/0
Technology	61.5%	0/0
Real Estate	57.1%	0/0
Utilities	26.7%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: FALLING
WTI Crude: $75.14 (5d: -11.0%)
Brent Crude: $78.69 | Spread: $3.55
RBOB Gasoline: $2.8400/gal
Heating Oil: $3.7300/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.60/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $58.52
UNG (Nat Gas): $9.77

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.717	normal
SPY / DXY	-0.262	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.349	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.643	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.56
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 6,979,482.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,714,615.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.53 (Heavy 0DTE Call Buying (Bullish))
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $824.9B
Gamma Call Wall: $770 | Put Wall: $750 (Spot: $772.15)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -17,196 contracts (Z +2.09, as of 2026-07-28)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.63%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.90 (Normal)
DXY: 99.89
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.23% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.27%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.31%
Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6738.2B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $910.8B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.3B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,825B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,854B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,086B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,735B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,087 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] USD/JPY 5d RoC at -3.7% — yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.452, GEX +8.5B, HY OAS 2.78%, breadth 70%.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~294h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~54h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hormuz_oil_brent_price has printed the same value (91.82) for 5 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=159186B avg=117887B
[WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 15 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.39%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Retail Sales: 2026-08-14

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (↑8.0% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.5% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.76 (↓4.2% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓1.6% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.0% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (29):

[1] Gold and Silver buy signals trigger [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-and-silver-buy-signals-trigger-video-202608050958 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 09:58:26 GMT

[2] New Ethereum proposal would cut issuance to zero if staked ETH reaches $112 billion URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/new-ethereum-proposal-would-cut-issuance-to-zero-if-staked-eth-reaches-112-billion-202608050954 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 09:54:30 GMT

[3] 60-day Hormuz deal being outlined URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/60-day-hormuz-deal-being-outlined-202608050945 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 09:45:43 GMT

[4] Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC extends gains as ETF inflows, US-Iran peace hopes ease market fears URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-price-prediction-btc-extends-gains-as-etf-inflows-us-iran-peace-hopes-ease-market-fears-202608050943 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 09:43:38 GMT

[5] Japanese Yen: Gains seen while below 160.00 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-gains-seen-while-below-16000-against-us-dollar-uob-202608050943 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 09:43:07 GMT

[6] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD hits fresh weekly highs beyond the top of a triangle pattern URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-hits-fresh-weekly-highs-beyond-the-top-of-a-triangle-pattern-202608050940 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 09:40:22 GMT

[7] Hungarian Forint: MPC minutes key for support against Euro - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/hungarian-forint-mpc-minutes-key-for-support-against-euro-commerzbank-202608050930 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 09:30:38 GMT

[8] Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608050930 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 09:30:12 GMT

[9] New Zealand Dollar comes under pressure after sharp deterioration in labor market URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-comes-under-pressure-after-sharp-deterioration-in-labor-market-202608050929 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 09:29:14 GMT

[10] Major cryptos are gradually gaining momentum URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/major-cryptos-are-gradually-gaining-momentum-202608050926 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 09:26:42 GMT

[11] US-Japan intervention caps Euro gains, Hormuz reopening could lend further support URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/us-japan-intervention-caps-euro-gains-hormuz-reopening-could-lend-further-support-202608050918 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 09:18:27 GMT

[12] Sterling rally a 'by-product' of weaker Dollar, Burnham funding questions linger URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/sterling-rally-a-by-product-of-weaker-dollar-burnham-funding-questions-linger-202608050917 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 09:17:05 GMT

[13] Danish Krone: Weakness seen as structural against Euro - Nordea URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/danish-krone-weakness-seen-as-structural-against-euro-nordea-202608050916 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 09:16:00 GMT

[14] GBP/USD Price Forecast: Trades around 1.3450; bulls retain control above 100-hour SMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-trades-around-13450-bulls-retain-control-above-100-hour-sma-202608050904 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 09:04:55 GMT

[15] Euro gains against Canadian Dollar following improved PMI data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-gains-against-canada-dollar-following-improved-pmi-data-202608050900 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 09:00:45 GMT

[16] Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (4.6%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-producer-price-index-yoy-meets-forecasts-46-in-june-202608050900 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 09:00:04 GMT

[17] Eurozone Producer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (-0.3%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-producer-price-index-mom-meets-forecasts-03-in-june-202608050900 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 09:00:03 GMT

[18] ISM Services PMI Preview: US services sector expected to accelerate in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ism-services-pmi-preview-us-services-sector-expected-to-accelerate-in-july-202608050900 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 09:00:00 GMT

[19] US Dollar Index: Negative bias builds with policy headwinds - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-negative-bias-builds-with-policy-headwinds-dbs-202608050854 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 08:54:55 GMT

[20] Japan's Katayama sees inflation easing with tax reduction URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japans-katayama-sees-inflation-easing-with-tax-reduction-202608050849 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 08:49:08 GMT

[21] AI rally and US-Iran hopes trigger risk-on URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/ai-rally-and-us-iran-hopes-trigger-risk-on-202608050844 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 08:44:32 GMT

[22] Australian Dollar flattens against USD in countdown to US ADP labor data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-flattens-against-usd-in-countdown-to-us-adp-labor-data-202608050844 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 08:44:18 GMT

[23] Japanese Yen: Policy follow-up needed for renewed demand - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-policy-follow-up-needed-for-renewed-demand-bny-202608050835 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 08:35:54 GMT

[24] Dow Jones futures gain on expected US-Iran agreement to reopen Hormuz URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-gain-on-expected-us-iran-agreement-to-reopen-hormuz-202608050833 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 08:33:16 GMT

[25] United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI registered at 52.1 above expectations (51.8) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-sp-global-services-pmi-registered-at-521-above-expectations-518-in-july-202608050830 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 08:30:01 GMT

[26] United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 52.2, above expectations (52.1) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-sp-global-composite-pmi-came-in-at-522-above-expectations-521-in-july-202608050830 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 08:30:01 GMT

[27] ADP Employment Report expected to show a steady labor market in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/adp-employment-report-expected-to-show-a-steady-labor-market-in-july-202608050830 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 08:30:00 GMT

[28] Euro steadies around 1.1540 after an upward revision of Eurozone's Services PMI URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-steadies-around-11530-after-an-upward-revision-of-eurozones-services-pmi-202608050825 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 08:25:21 GMT

[29] US equities reach new record high levels URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/us-equities-reach-new-record-high-levels-202608050825 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 08:25:09 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (4):

[1] Control over Strait of Hormuz is vital to national security, Iran MP says Time: 2026-08-05T09:33:03.676Z

[2] War or government failure? Record inflation fuels political battle in Iran Time: 2026-08-05T09:04:38.382Z

[3] Iran rejects US-backed southern corridor in Strait of Hormuz, MP says Time: 2026-08-05T08:36:07.523Z

[4] Iran FM must face parliament questions on US negotiations, MP says Time: 2026-08-05T07:40:58.090Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 158 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 8 of 60 normal daily — 13.3% of normal
Throughput: 13.3% of normal (0.0M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 450
Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 33.3x normal
Tanker Rates: WS180 (+260% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.1 billion/day economic cost