Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-05 04:01:17 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +1.9% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (7 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	DIX 0.452 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.53 call-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +8.5B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 70% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +9.6% growth optimism · real yield 2.43% restrictive
Correlations	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	SPY/VIX -0.72 normal, SPY/DXY -0.26 normal, SPY/TNX -0.35 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.64 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 16.5 sub-20 in contango · VVIX/VIX 5.61 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 18 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	USD/JPY 5d -3.7% yen strengthening, MOVE 78 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.78% benign, NFCI -0.554 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally — dark pool, gamma, and breadth align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 84/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.452; GEX positive at 8.5B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.5 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $772.15 | 50 SMA $745.32 | 200 SMA $700.86 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $747.89
QQQ: $721.78 | 50 SMA $714.83 | 200 SMA $645.55 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $715.99
IWM: $302.19 | 50 SMA $292.82 | 200 SMA $266.10 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $294.07
VIX: 16.50 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.627%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$772.15	53.93	53.0	$747.89	Bearish	13.56
QQQ	$721.78	42.06	61.4	$715.99	Bearish	16.25
IWM	$302.19	52.69	24.0	$294.07	Bearish	0.36

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	16.50	48.00	63.2	$10.50	Neutral	0.99
TNX	46.27 ▲	59.13	34.5	-	-	-
GLD	$374.24	49.58	24.5	$368.75	Neutral	0.53
DXY	99.89	39.95	34.0	-	-	-
SLV	$53.85	47.33	13.8	$41.17	Bearish	0.36

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.452
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.53B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.78% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.97%
2s10s Spread: 0.43% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 69.5%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.8%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.8%
Top 10 Concentration: 42.2%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Financials	94.0%	0/0
Health Care	81.5%	0/0
Communication Services	75.0%	0/0
Energy	73.7%	0/0
Materials	70.8%	0/0
Consumer Staples	70.6%	0/0
Industrials	67.2%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	62.7%	0/0
Technology	61.5%	0/0
Real Estate	57.1%	0/0
Utilities	26.7%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: FALLING
WTI Crude: $75.14 (5d: -11.0%)
Brent Crude: $78.69 | Spread: $3.55
RBOB Gasoline: $2.8400/gal
Heating Oil: $3.7300/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.60/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $58.52
UNG (Nat Gas): $9.77

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.717	normal
SPY / DXY	-0.262	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.349	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.643	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.56
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 6,979,482.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,714,615.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.53 (Heavy 0DTE Call Buying (Bullish))
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $824.9B
Gamma Call Wall: $770 | Put Wall: $750 (Spot: $772.15)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -17,196 contracts (Z +2.09, as of 2026-07-28)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.63%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.90 (Normal)
DXY: 99.89
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.23% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.27%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.31%
Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6738.2B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $910.8B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.3B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,825B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,854B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,086B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,735B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,116 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] USD/JPY 5d RoC at -3.7% — yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.452, GEX +8.5B, HY OAS 2.78%, breadth 70%.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~294h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~54h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hormuz_oil_brent_price has printed the same value (91.82) for 5 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=159186B avg=117887B

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.39%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Retail Sales: 2026-08-14

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (↑8.0% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.5% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.76 (↓4.2% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓1.6% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.0% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (28):

[1] Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI above forecasts (51.9) in July: Actual (52) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-hcob-composite-pmi-above-forecasts-519-in-july-actual-52-202608050800 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 08:00:08 GMT

[2] Eurozone HCOB Services PMI above expectations (51.6) in July: Actual (51.7) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-hcob-services-pmi-above-expectations-516-in-july-actual-517-202608050800 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 08:00:01 GMT

[3] Equities: Global risk rally extends on softer inflation - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-global-risk-rally-extends-on-softer-inflation-deutsche-bank-202608050755 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 07:55:54 GMT

[4] Germany HCOB Composite PMI came in at 51.3, above forecasts (51.2) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-hcob-composite-pmi-came-in-at-513-above-forecasts-512-in-july-202608050755 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 07:55:06 GMT

[5] Germany HCOB Services PMI above expectations (49.6) in July: Actual (49.8) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-hcob-services-pmi-above-expectations-496-in-july-actual-498-202608050755 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 07:55:06 GMT

[6] Pi Network Price Forecast: PI eyes bullish breakout amid RoboPay payment partnership URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/pi-network-price-forecast-pi-eyes-bullish-breakout-amid-robopay-payment-partnership-202608050752 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 07:52:39 GMT

[7] USD/CAD Price Forecast: Bulls gain traction as cheaper Crude hits Loonie URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-bulls-gain-traction-as-cheaper-crude-hits-loonie-202608050750 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 07:50:29 GMT

[8] France HCOB Composite PMI below forecasts (49.6) in July: Actual (49.4) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-hcob-composite-pmi-below-forecasts-496-in-july-actual-494-202608050750 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 07:50:01 GMT

[9] France HCOB Services PMI below forecasts (49.8) in July: Actual (49.6) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-hcob-services-pmi-below-forecasts-498-in-july-actual-496-202608050750 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 07:50:00 GMT

[10] Italy HCOB Services PMI above expectations (52) in July: Actual (52.5) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-hcob-services-pmi-above-expectations-52-in-july-actual-525-202608050745 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 07:45:01 GMT

[11] Brazilian Real: Disinflation and fiscal risks guide weaker outlook - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazilian-real-disinflation-and-fiscal-risks-guide-weaker-outlook-rabobank-202608050737 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 07:37:29 GMT

[12] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD hits one-month high, eyes $62.00 after technical breakout URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-hits-one-month-high-eyes-6200-after-technical-breakout-202608050729 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 07:29:54 GMT

[13] US Dollar: Q3 uptrend seen intact - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-q3-uptrend-seen-intact-td-securities-202608050715 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 07:15:40 GMT

[14] Spain HCOB Services PMI above forecasts (55.3) in July: Actual (58.3) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-hcob-services-pmi-above-forecasts-553-in-july-actual-583-202608050715 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 07:15:01 GMT

[15] Experts agree: US-Japan intervention to boost Yen won't last long URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/experts-agree-us-japan-intervention-to-boost-yen-wont-last-long-202608050712 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 07:12:45 GMT

[16] WTI Price Forecast: Edges lower to near $74.50 with bearish bias intact below 100-day SMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-price-forecast-edges-lower-to-near-7450-with-bearish-bias-intact-below-100-day-sma-202608050700 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 07:00:45 GMT

[17] MACD-v (Pro): Signals, stops and exhaustion URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/education/macd-v-pro-signals-stops-and-exhaustion-202608050700 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 07:00:42 GMT

[18] British Pound: Consolidation with limited upside scope against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-consolidation-with-limited-upside-scope-against-us-dollar-uob-202608050700 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 07:00:21 GMT

[19] Euro holds gains against the Pound awaiting Eurozone and UK Services PMIs URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-holds-gains-against-the-pound-awaiting-eurozone-and-uk-services-pmis-202608050659 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 06:59:51 GMT

[20] Japanese Yen: Joint action fails to secure lasting gains - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-joint-action-fails-to-secure-lasting-gains-commerzbank-202608050650 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 06:50:00 GMT

[21] France Industrial Output (MoM) registered at 0.1%, below expectations (0.3%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-industrial-output-mom-registered-at-01-below-expectations-03-in-june-202608050645 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 06:45:00 GMT

[22] Forex Today: US Dollar struggles as risk flows dominate markets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-us-dollar-struggles-as-risk-flows-dominate-markets-202608050639 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 06:39:45 GMT

[23] Equities: Rally extends on reduced downside fears - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-rally-extends-on-reduced-downside-fears-danske-bank-202608050639 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 06:39:31 GMT

[24] ViaSat (VSAT) Q1 earnings surpass estimates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/viasat-vsat-q1-earnings-surpass-estimates-202608050633 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 06:33:31 GMT

[25] Oil: Market looks through Hormuz risks - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-market-looks-through-hormuz-risks-mufg-202608050631 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 06:31:15 GMT

[26] British Pound grinds higher above 1.3450 ahead of US ADP Employment release URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-grinds-higher-above-13450-ahead-of-us-adp-employment-release-202608050621 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 06:21:57 GMT

[27] US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Bears eye two-month lows around 99.40 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-price-forecast-bears-eye-two-month-lows-around-9940-202608050618 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 06:18:41 GMT

[28] Euro: Mild upside toward 1.1565 cap against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-mild-upside-toward-11565-cap-against-us-dollar-uob-202608050616 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 06:16:29 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (3):

[1] Yemen's Houthis say they attacked Saudi oil tanker off Yanbu Time: 2026-08-05T07:16:42.563Z

[2] US expected short war to bring regime change in Iran, lawmaker says Time: 2026-08-05T06:49:31.837Z

[3] IRGC warns of blast sounds southeast of Tehran during munitions disposal Time: 2026-08-05T06:24:53.863Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 158 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily — 11.4% of normal
Throughput: 11.7% of normal (1.2M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 299
Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 50.0x normal
Tanker Rates: WS175 (+250% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost