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2026-W32

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-05 02:01:28 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +1.9% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (7 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β€” Strong alignment β€” structural signals confirm price direction

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED DIX 0.452 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.53 call-heavy
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED GEX +8.5B strong suppression
Breadth 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Breadth 70% β€” broad participation supports rally
Energy 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Energy FALLING β€” oil decline, mild equity tailwind
growth_expectations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Copper/Gold +9.6% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive
Correlations 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED SPY/VIX -0.72 normal, SPY/DXY -0.26 normal, SPY/TNX -0.35 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.64 stretched
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 16.5 sub-20 in contango Β· VVIX/VIX 5.61 dealer stress
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Stagflation score 18 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” USD/JPY 5d -3.7% yen strengthening, MOVE 78 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β€” hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED HY OAS 2.78% benign, NFCI -0.554 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally β€” dark pool, gamma, and breadth align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 84/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.452; GEX positive at 8.5B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.5 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $772.15 | 50 SMA $745.32 | 200 SMA $700.86 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $747.89
  • QQQ: $721.78 | 50 SMA $714.83 | 200 SMA $645.55 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $715.99
  • IWM: $302.19 | 50 SMA $292.82 | 200 SMA $266.10 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $294.07
  • VIX: 16.50 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.627%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $772.15 53.93 53.0 $747.89 Bearish 13.56
QQQ $721.78 42.06 61.4 $715.99 Bearish 16.25
IWM $302.19 52.69 24.0 $294.07 Bearish 0.36

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 16.50 48.00 63.2 $10.50 Neutral 0.99
TNX 46.27 β–² 59.13 34.5 - - -
GLD $374.24 49.58 24.5 $368.75 Neutral 0.53
DXY 99.89 39.95 34.0 - - -
SLV $53.85 47.33 13.8 $41.17 Bearish 0.36

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.452
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.53B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.78% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.97%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.43% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 69.5%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.8%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 31.8%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 42.2%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Financials 94.0% 0/0
Health Care 81.5% 0/0
Communication Services 75.0% 0/0
Energy 73.7% 0/0
Materials 70.8% 0/0
Consumer Staples 70.6% 0/0
Industrials 67.2% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 62.7% 0/0
Technology 61.5% 0/0
Real Estate 57.1% 0/0
Utilities 26.7% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: FALLING
  • WTI Crude: $75.14 (5d: -11.0%)
  • Brent Crude: $78.69 | Spread: $3.55
  • RBOB Gasoline: $2.8400/gal
  • Heating Oil: $3.7300/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.60/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $58.52
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $9.77

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.717 normal
SPY / DXY -0.262 normal
SPY / TNX -0.349 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.643 stretched

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.56
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 6,979,482.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 3,714,615.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.53 (Heavy 0DTE Call Buying (Bullish))
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $824.9B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $773 | Put Wall: $750 (Spot: $772.15)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
  • Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -17,196 contracts (Z +2.09, as of 2026-07-28)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.63%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.90 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.89
  • Growth vs Value: 0.93
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.23% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.27%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.31%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6738.2B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $910.8B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.3B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,825B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,854B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,086B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,735B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,281 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~294h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~54h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [WARNING] USD/JPY 5d RoC at -3.7% β€” yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.452, GEX +8.5B, HY OAS 2.78%, breadth 70%.
  • [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β€” normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
  • [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β€” systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: hormuz_oil_brent_price has printed the same value (91.82) for 5 consecutive trading days β€” publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: August
  • Average Return: +0.39%
  • Median Return: +1.41%
  • Hit Rate: 65%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
  • Retail Sales: 2026-08-14

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (↑8.0% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.5% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.76 (↓4.2% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓1.6% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.0% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (28):

[1] Russia S&P Global Services PMI increased to 49 in July from previous 48.2 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/russia-sp-global-services-pmi-increased-to-49-in-july-from-previous-482-202608050600 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 06:00:01 GMT

[2] Oil and Gold: Price review for the week ahead URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/oil-and-gold-price-review-for-the-week-ahead-202608050557 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 05:57:19 GMT

[3] Global yields and Oil fall on apparent US-Iran progress URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/global-yields-and-oil-fall-on-apparent-us-iran-progress-202608050551 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 05:51:30 GMT

[4] EUR/USD Price Forecast: Hawkish ECB bets back fresh upside URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-hawkish-ecb-bets-back-fresh-upside-202608050546 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 05:46:47 GMT

[5] New Zealand Dollar weakens below 0.5900 as Unemployment Rate jumps to highest since 2015 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-weakens-below-05900-as-unemployment-rate-jumps-to-highest-since-2015-202608050540 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 05:40:39 GMT

[6] Will ADP move the Dollar? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/will-adp-move-the-dollar-202608050535 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 05:35:36 GMT

[7] ADP in focus ahead of Friday's jobs report URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/adp-in-focus-ahead-of-fridays-jobs-report-202608050531 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 05:31:50 GMT

[8] Indian Rupee gives back mild gains after RBI leaves Repo Rate steady at 5.25% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-gives-back-mild-gains-after-rbi-leaves-repo-rate-steady-at-525-202608050511 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 05:11:03 GMT

[9] Indonesian Rupiah remains stronger on strong domestic GDP URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesian-rupiah-remains-stronger-on-strong-domestic-gdp-202608050510 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 05:10:02 GMT

[10] USD/JPY Price Forecast: Holds steady above 157.50 as bulls await 50-hour EMA breakout URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-holds-steady-above-15750-as-bulls-await-50-hour-ema-breakout-202608050507 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 05:07:07 GMT

[11] Saudi Arabia Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/saudi-arabia-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608050505 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 05:05:08 GMT

[12] India HSBC Services PMI above expectations (53.1) in July: Actual (53.3) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-hsbc-services-pmi-above-expectations-531-in-july-actual-533-202608050500 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 05:00:40 GMT

[13] India HSBC Composite PMI in line with expectations (54.3) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-hsbc-composite-pmi-in-line-with-expectations-543-in-july-202608050500 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 05:00:35 GMT

[14] Philippines Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/philippines-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608050500 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 05:00:25 GMT

[15] Singapore Retail Sales (YoY) climbed from previous 3% to 4% in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-retail-sales-yoy-climbed-from-previous-3-to-4-in-june-202608050500 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 05:00:03 GMT

[16] Singapore Retail Sales (MoM) rose from previous -2.3% to 1% in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-retail-sales-mom-rose-from-previous-23-to-1-in-june-202608050500 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 05:00:02 GMT

[17] Morning briefing: RBI policy meeting is due today URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/morning-briefing-rbi-policy-meeting-is-due-today-202608050458 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 04:58:15 GMT

[18] United Arab Emirates Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-arab-emirates-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608050455 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 04:55:08 GMT

[19] Pakistan Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pakistan-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608050445 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 04:45:35 GMT

[20] Swiss Franc gains as easing risk aversion weighs on US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-gains-as-easing-risk-aversion-weighs-on-us-dollar-202608050440 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 04:40:41 GMT

[21] India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608050435 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 04:35:09 GMT

[22] India Reverse Repo Rate: 3.35% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-reverse-repo-rate-335-202608050432 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 04:32:49 GMT

[23] India RBI Interest Rate Decision (Repo Rate) meets forecasts (5.25%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-rbi-interest-rate-decision-repo-rate-meets-forecasts-525-202608050432 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 04:32:10 GMT

[24] Malaysia Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/malaysia-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608050430 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 04:30:07 GMT

[25] Canadian Dollar hangs near one-week low as weak oil prices counter USD downtick URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-hangs-near-one-week-low-as-weak-oil-prices-counter-usd-downtick-202608050421 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 04:21:20 GMT

[26] Indonesia Gross Domestic Product (YoY) above expectations (5.1%) in 2Q: Actual (5.29%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesia-gross-domestic-product-yoy-above-expectations-51-in-2q-actual-529-202608050414 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 04:14:10 GMT

[27] Indonesia Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at 3.73%, above forecasts (3.5%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesia-gross-domestic-product-qoq-came-in-at-373-above-forecasts-35-in-2q-202608050414 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 04:14:09 GMT

[28] EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Softens below 182.00 on intervention risks, bearish outlook prevails URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-price-forecast-softens-below-18200-on-intervention-risks-bearish-outlook-prevails-202608050410 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 04:10:24 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (5):

[1] Israeli military says it dismantled Hezbollah tunnel in south Lebanon Time: 2026-08-05T05:37:43.455Z

[2] Iran-Pakistan free trade talks move to review of proposed goods, official says Time: 2026-08-05T05:15:18.627Z

[3] Controlled blast may be heard near Yazd, IRGC unit says Time: 2026-08-05T05:01:23.907Z

[4] Pahlavi calls for free elections and constituent assembly in Iran Time: 2026-08-05T04:30:59.636Z

[5] Trump says Iran negotiations are progressing well Time: 2026-08-05T04:16:43.386Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 158 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 15 of 60 normal daily β€” 25.0% of normal
  • Throughput: 25.0% of normal (2.6M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 299
  • Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 50.0x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS245 (+390% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost