Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-05 08:01:37 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +1.9% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (7 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	DIX 0.452 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.53 call-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +8.5B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 70% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +9.6% growth optimism · real yield 2.43% restrictive
Correlations	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	SPY/VIX -0.72 normal, SPY/DXY -0.26 normal, SPY/TNX -0.35 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.64 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 16.5 sub-20 in contango · VVIX/VIX 5.61 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 18 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	USD/JPY 5d -3.7% yen strengthening, MOVE 78 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.78% benign, NFCI -0.554 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally — dark pool, gamma, and breadth align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 84/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.452; GEX positive at 8.5B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.5 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $772.15 | 50 SMA $745.32 | 200 SMA $700.86 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $747.89
QQQ: $721.78 | 50 SMA $714.83 | 200 SMA $645.55 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $715.99
IWM: $302.19 | 50 SMA $292.82 | 200 SMA $266.10 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $294.07
VIX: 16.50 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.627%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$772.15	53.93	53.0	$747.89	Bearish	13.56
QQQ	$721.78	42.06	61.4	$715.99	Bearish	16.25
IWM	$302.19	52.69	24.0	$294.07	Bearish	0.36

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	16.50	48.00	63.2	$10.50	Neutral	0.99
TNX	46.27 ▲	59.13	34.5	-	-	-
GLD	$374.24	49.58	24.5	$368.75	Neutral	0.53
DXY	99.89	39.95	34.0	-	-	-
SLV	$53.85	47.33	13.8	$41.17	Bearish	0.36

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.452
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.53B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.78% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.97%
2s10s Spread: 0.43% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 69.5%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.8%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.8%
Top 10 Concentration: 42.2%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Financials	94.0%	0/0
Health Care	81.5%	0/0
Communication Services	75.0%	0/0
Energy	73.7%	0/0
Materials	70.8%	0/0
Consumer Staples	70.6%	0/0
Industrials	67.2%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	62.7%	0/0
Technology	61.5%	0/0
Real Estate	57.1%	0/0
Utilities	26.7%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: FALLING
WTI Crude: $75.14 (5d: -11.0%)
Brent Crude: $78.69 | Spread: $3.55
RBOB Gasoline: $2.8400/gal
Heating Oil: $3.7300/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.60/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $58.52
UNG (Nat Gas): $9.77

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.717	normal
SPY / DXY	-0.262	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.349	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.643	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.56
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 6,979,482.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,714,615.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.53 (Heavy 0DTE Call Buying (Bullish))
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $824.9B
Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $762 (Spot: $772.15)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -17,196 contracts (Z +2.09, as of 2026-07-28)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.63%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.90 (Normal)
DXY: 99.89
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.23% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.27%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.31%
Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6738.2B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $910.8B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.3B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,825B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,854B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,086B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,735B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,018 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] USD/JPY 5d RoC at -3.7% — yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.452, GEX +8.5B, HY OAS 2.78%, breadth 70%.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~294h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hormuz_oil_brent_price has printed the same value (91.82) for 5 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=159186B avg=117887B
[WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 15 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 78 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.39%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Retail Sales: 2026-08-14

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (↑8.0% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.5% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.76 (↓4.2% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓1.6% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.0% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (24):

[1] USD/CAD - Sell trade idea, big reward potential [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/usd-cad-sell-trade-idea-big-reward-potential-video-202608051156 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 11:56:46 GMT

[2] US Dollar: Consolidation view into ISM and payrolls - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-consolidation-view-into-ism-and-payrolls-bbh-202608051154 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 11:54:53 GMT

[3] Taking out the lines in the sand URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/taking-out-the-lines-in-the-sand-202608051154 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 11:54:09 GMT

[4] Brent: Price slips on Hormuz deal hopes - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-price-slips-on-hormuz-deal-hopes-rabobank-202608051143 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 11:43:39 GMT

[5] EUR/USD Price Forecast: Trades near crucial level of 1.1550 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-trades-near-crucial-level-of-11550-202608051143 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 11:43:12 GMT

[6] Straits talk opens markets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/straits-talk-opens-markets-202608051142 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 11:42:53 GMT

[7] Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD, capped below $62.00 but steady near one-month highs URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecasts-xag-usd-capped-below-6200-but-steady-near-one-month-highs-202608051141 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 11:41:44 GMT

[8] Euro: PMI resilience tempers stagflation fears - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-pmi-resilience-tempers-stagflation-fears-bny-202608051134 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 11:34:17 GMT

[9] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD trades around 1.3450 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-usd-trades-around-13450-202608051132 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 11:32:00 GMT

[10] Gold advances to one-month high as Hormuz reopening hopes ease inflation fears URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-advances-to-one-month-high-as-hormuz-reopening-hopes-ease-inflation-fears-202608051119 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 11:19:27 GMT

[11] US Dollar: Soft labor firmer services outlook - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-soft-labor-firmer-services-outlook-td-securities-202608051116 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 11:16:52 GMT

[12] Hormuz reopening a 'bearish development' for Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/hormuz-reopening-a-bearish-development-for-dollar-202608051115 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 11:15:37 GMT

[13] The market trap that quietly destroys most trading signals URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/education/the-market-trap-that-quietly-destroys-most-trading-signals-202608051110 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 11:10:31 GMT

[14] United States Dollar Index trades subduedly below 100.00 ahead of US data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-trades-subduedly-below-10000-ahead-of-us-data-202608051108 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 11:08:07 GMT

[15] United States MBA Mortgage Applications increased to -2.9% in July 31 from previous -6.4% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-mba-mortgage-applications-increased-to-29-in-july-31-from-previous-64-202608051100 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 11:00:02 GMT

[16] Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum advance while XRP lags amid US-Iran deal optimism URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-today-bitcoin-ethereum-advance-while-xrp-lags-amid-us-iran-deal-optimism-202608051100 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 11:00:00 GMT

[17] WTI recovers part of its losses, caught between technical rebound, diplomatic optimism URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-recovers-part-of-its-losses-caught-between-technical-rebound-diplomatic-optimism-202608051056 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 10:56:10 GMT

[18] FX daily: Bessent provides more rationale for Yen intervention URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/fx-daily-bessent-provides-more-rationale-for-yen-intervention-202608051051 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 10:51:09 GMT

[19] Oil nearing a bad deal URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/oil-nearing-a-bad-deal-202608051042 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 10:42:39 GMT

[20] Bitcoin price-metric basket sees longest capitulation since FTX blow-up URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-price-metric-basket-sees-longest-capitulation-since-ftx-blow-up-202608051038 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 10:38:47 GMT

[21] British Pound extends gains to 212.50 against the Yen after upbeat UK services data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-extends-gains-to-21250-against-the-yen-after-upbeat-uk-services-data-202608051031 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 10:31:03 GMT

[22] USD/JPY holds steady after intervention: Outlook remains uncertain URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/usd-jpy-holds-steady-after-intervention-outlook-remains-uncertain-202608051016 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 10:16:39 GMT

[23] Indian Rupee: Dovish MPC hold supports prolonged pause - Standard Chartered URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-dovish-mpc-hold-supports-prolonged-pause-standard-chartered-202608051005 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 10:05:42 GMT

[24] Portugal Unemployment Rate down to 5.3% in 2Q from previous 6.1% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/portugal-unemployment-rate-down-to-53-in-2q-from-previous-61-202608051000 Published: Wed, 05 Aug 2026 10:00:48 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (4):

[1] Sanctions profiteers favor continued war and chaos, Rouhani says Time: 2026-08-05T11:30:23.053Z

[2] Iran-linked attacks on US water systems aimed to project reach and intimidate Time: 2026-08-05T10:16:16.775Z

[3] Watch: Trump says Hormuz will reopen soon or Iran will face tremendous attack Time: 2026-08-05T10:12:21.735Z

[BREAKING] [4] Iran's president pledges support in phone call with Hamas chief Time: 2026-08-05T10:03:43.171Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 158 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily — 16.7% of normal
Throughput: 16.5% of normal (1.7M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 450
Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 53.3x normal
Tanker Rates: WS125 (+150% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost