Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-04 08:01:15 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +1.8% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (7 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	DIX 0.468 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.87 call-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +6.7B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 66% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +7.6% growth optimism · real yield 2.47% restrictive
Correlations	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	SPY/VIX -0.85 normal, SPY/DXY -0.29 normal, SPY/TNX -0.23 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.59 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.9 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 140 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.73 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 18 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	USD/JPY 5d -3.9% yen strengthening, MOVE 80 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.84% benign, NFCI -0.554 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally — dark pool, gamma, and breadth align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 86/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.468; GEX positive at 6.7B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $758.05 | 50 SMA $744.99 | 200 SMA $700.39 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $743.12
QQQ: $701.00 | 50 SMA $715.09 | 200 SMA $645.04 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $680.82
IWM: $296.66 | 50 SMA $292.49 | 200 SMA $265.86 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $291.82
VIX: 15.86 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.686%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$758.05	48.39	46.8	$743.12	Bearish	2.38
QQQ	$701.00	40.06	60.3	$680.82	Bearish	0.21
IWM	$296.66	45.89	15.0	$291.82	Neutral	0.65

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.86	46.47	63.3	$10.50	Neutral	1.05
TNX	46.86	63.13	24.9	-	-	-
GLD	$371.88	53.82	26.9	$371.22	Neutral	0.87
DXY	99.96	35.53	34.0	-	-	-
SLV	$52.57	50.70	14.7	$52.00	Bearish	0.36

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.468
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.67B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.84% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.99%
2s10s Spread: 0.45% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 65.7%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.8%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
Mag 7 Concentration: 32.0%
Top 10 Concentration: 42.3%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Financials	91.0%	0/0
Health Care	87.0%	0/0
Communication Services	75.0%	0/0
Energy	68.4%	0/0
Real Estate	67.9%	0/0
Industrials	65.7%	0/0
Consumer Staples	61.8%	0/0
Materials	58.3%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	54.2%	0/0
Technology	50.8%	0/0
Utilities	26.7%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $80.06 (5d: +1.0%)
Brent Crude: $83.51 | Spread: $3.45
RBOB Gasoline: $2.9600/gal
Heating Oil: $3.8600/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.86/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $58.79
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.11

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.847	normal
SPY / DXY	-0.288	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.228	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.592	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 80.48
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 4,590,893.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,977,280.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.87 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $649.2B
Gamma Call Wall: $760 | Put Wall: $750 (Spot: $758.05)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -17,196 contracts (Z +2.09, as of 2026-07-28)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.69%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.99 (Normal)
DXY: 99.96
Growth vs Value: 0.92
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.23% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.27%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.31%
Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6738.2B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $910.8B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.1B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,825B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,846B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,069B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,739B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,820 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] USD/JPY 5d RoC at -3.9% — yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.468, GEX +6.7B, HY OAS 2.84%, breadth 66%.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~270h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
[INFO] SPY (739.27) reclaimed ZGL (738.52) — volatility dampening resumes.
[WARNING] SPY (738.09) dropped below ZGL (738.51) — expect amplified downside moves.
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.29%
Median Return: +1.35%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (↑8.4% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.49 (↑17.3% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.5% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.70 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.81 (↓3.5% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓1.5% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.96 (↑2.2% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (24):

[1] Brazil Industrial Output (YoY) below forecasts (3%) in June: Actual (1.7%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazil-industrial-output-yoy-below-forecasts-3-in-june-actual-17-202608041200 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 12:00:20 GMT

[2] Mexico Consumer Confidence s.a climbed from previous 43.8 to 45 in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-consumer-confidence-sa-climbed-from-previous-438-to-45-in-july-202608041200 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 12:00:15 GMT

[3] Brazil Industrial Output (MoM) above forecasts (-0.8%) in June: Actual (1.8%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazil-industrial-output-mom-above-forecasts-08-in-june-actual-18-202608041200 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 12:00:11 GMT

[4] Natural gas: Tight market but less stressed - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/natural-gas-tight-market-but-less-stressed-ing-202608041159 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 11:59:30 GMT

[5] Cryptocurrencies Price Prediction: Bitcoin, Aave & Crypto - European Wrap 4 August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-bitcoin-aave-crypto-european-wrap-4-august-202608041152 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 11:52:48 GMT

[6] Bitcoin rises toward $64,000 as Coldcard exploit, strategy sales recede - ADA advances URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-rises-toward-64-000-as-coldcard-exploit-strategy-sales-recede-ada-advances-202608041151 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 11:51:04 GMT

[7] US Dollar: JOLTS openings seen retreating - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-jolts-openings-seen-retreating-td-securities-202608041149 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 11:49:53 GMT

[8] Euro defends the 1.1500 level ahead of a string of US labour data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-defends-the-11500-level-ahead-of-a-string-of-us-labour-data-202608041149 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 11:49:15 GMT

[9] Oil: Supply resilience and geopolitical risks - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-supply-resilience-and-geopolitical-risks-bny-202608041144 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 11:44:37 GMT

[10] US Yen intervention puts Bitcoin, risk assets on notice for liquidity flux URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/us-yen-intervention-puts-bitcoin-risk-assets-on-notice-for-liquidity-flux-202608041137 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 11:37:32 GMT

[11] Japanese Yen: Relief rallies seen as selling opportunity - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-relief-rallies-seen-as-selling-opportunity-bbh-202608041135 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 11:35:27 GMT

[12] Qatar's Ansari: Efforts are ongoing to seek diplomatic solution in US-Iran conflict URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/qatars-ansari-efforts-are-ongoing-to-seek-diplomatic-solution-in-us-iran-conflict-202608041131 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 11:31:33 GMT

[13] Gold: Rebound supported by lower energy - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-rebound-supported-by-lower-energy-ing-202608041123 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 11:23:43 GMT

[14] Gold holds steady as traders weigh US-Iran talks, Fed outlook URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-holds-steady-as-traders-weigh-us-iran-talks-fed-outlook-202608041122 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 11:22:32 GMT

[15] British Pound finds footing at 1.3420 with markets awaiting US Job Openings data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-finds-footing-at-13420-with-markets-awaiting-us-job-openings-data-202608041117 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 11:17:29 GMT

[16] Canadian Dollar: Trade surplus seen narrowing - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-trade-surplus-seen-narrowing-td-securities-202608041113 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 11:13:38 GMT

[17] Manufacturing reaccelerates as the S&P 500 breaks higher URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/manufacturing-reaccelerates-as-the-sp-500-breaks-higher-202608041109 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 11:09:54 GMT

[18] Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP shows recovery signs as Ethereum and XRP struggle URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-today-bitcoin-ethereum-xrp-shows-recovery-signs-as-ethereum-and-xrp-struggle-202608041059 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 10:59:28 GMT

[19] Markets swing to upside, again URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/markets-swing-to-upside-again-202608041056 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 10:56:45 GMT

[20] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD remains sideways around $4,050 during US NFP week URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-remains-sideways-around-4-050-during-us-nfp-week-202608041045 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 10:45:48 GMT

[21] Japanese Yen weakens despite intervention warnings as USD/JPY rebounds near 158 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-weakens-despite-intervention-warnings-as-usd-jpy-rebounds-near-158-202608041038 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 10:38:28 GMT

[22] GBP/USD under pressure: Pound lags behind peers URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gbp-usd-under-pressure-pound-lags-behind-peers-202608041022 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 10:22:25 GMT

[23] USD/CHF Price Forecast: Dollar, capped at 0.8100, hints at a potential "H&S" pattern URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-price-forecast-dollar-capped-at-08100-hints-at-a-potential-hs-pattern-202608041010 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 10:10:18 GMT

[24] US Dollar Index: Downside bias within defined range - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-downside-bias-within-defined-range-uob-202608041006 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 10:06:00 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (6):

[1] US may have Iran deal to open Hormuz on Wednesday, Bessent says Time: 2026-08-04T11:47:35.176Z

[2] US depleted 'virtually all' long-range precision missiles in Iran war - Reuters Time: 2026-08-04T11:39:07.975Z

[3] Qatar says mediators coordinating closely on US-Iran diplomatic efforts Time: 2026-08-04T11:32:37.894Z

[4] Qatar, Russia FMs discuss US-Iran memorandum and Hormuz Time: 2026-08-04T10:37:52.731Z

[BREAKING] [5] Yemen's Houthis say they struck target at Saudi airport Time: 2026-08-04T10:29:45.994Z

[6] Factory tank explosion alarms residents south of Tehran - state media Time: 2026-08-04T10:23:11.197Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 157 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 12 of 60 normal daily — 20.0% of normal
Throughput: 20.0% of normal (2.1M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 0
Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 53.3x normal
Tanker Rates: WS185 (+270% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost