Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-04 06:01:32 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +1.8% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (7 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	DIX 0.468 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.87 call-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +6.7B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 66% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +7.6% growth optimism · real yield 2.47% restrictive
Correlations	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	SPY/VIX -0.85 normal, SPY/DXY -0.29 normal, SPY/TNX -0.23 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.59 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.9 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 140 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.73 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 18 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	USD/JPY 5d -3.9% yen strengthening, MOVE 80 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.84% benign, NFCI -0.554 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally — dark pool, gamma, and breadth align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 86/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.468; GEX positive at 6.7B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $758.05 | 50 SMA $744.99 | 200 SMA $700.39 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $743.12
QQQ: $701.00 | 50 SMA $715.09 | 200 SMA $645.04 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $680.82
IWM: $296.66 | 50 SMA $292.49 | 200 SMA $265.86 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $291.82
VIX: 15.86 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.686%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$758.05	48.39	46.8	$743.12	Bearish	2.38
QQQ	$701.00	40.06	60.3	$680.82	Bearish	0.21
IWM	$296.66	45.89	15.0	$291.82	Neutral	0.65

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.86	46.47	63.3	$10.50	Neutral	1.05
TNX	46.86	63.13	24.9	-	-	-
GLD	$371.88	53.82	26.9	$371.22	Neutral	0.87
DXY	99.96	35.53	34.0	-	-	-
SLV	$52.57	50.70	14.7	$52.00	Bearish	0.36

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.468
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.67B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.84% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.99%
2s10s Spread: 0.45% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 65.7%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.8%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
Mag 7 Concentration: 32.0%
Top 10 Concentration: 42.3%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Financials	91.0%	0/0
Health Care	87.0%	0/0
Communication Services	75.0%	0/0
Energy	68.4%	0/0
Real Estate	67.9%	0/0
Industrials	65.7%	0/0
Consumer Staples	61.8%	0/0
Materials	58.3%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	54.2%	0/0
Technology	50.8%	0/0
Utilities	26.7%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $80.06 (5d: +1.0%)
Brent Crude: $83.51 | Spread: $3.45
RBOB Gasoline: $2.9600/gal
Heating Oil: $3.8600/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.86/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $58.79
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.11

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.847	normal
SPY / DXY	-0.288	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.228	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.592	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 80.48
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 4,590,893.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,977,280.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.87 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $649.2B
Gamma Call Wall: $760 | Put Wall: $745 (Spot: $758.05)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -17,196 contracts (Z +2.09, as of 2026-07-28)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.69%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.99 (Normal)
DXY: 99.96
Growth vs Value: 0.92
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.23% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.27%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.31%
Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6738.2B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $910.8B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.1B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,825B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,846B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,069B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,739B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,499 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] USD/JPY 5d RoC at -3.9% — yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.468, GEX +6.7B, HY OAS 2.84%, breadth 66%.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~270h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~126h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
[INFO] SPY (739.27) reclaimed ZGL (738.52) — volatility dampening resumes.
[WARNING] SPY (738.09) dropped below ZGL (738.51) — expect amplified downside moves.

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.29%
Median Return: +1.35%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (↑8.4% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.49 (↑17.3% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.5% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.70 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.81 (↓3.5% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓1.5% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.96 (↑2.2% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (28):

[1] Indian Rupee: RBI pause and Special swap inflows - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-rbi-pause-and-special-swap-inflows-dbs-202608040955 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 09:55:50 GMT

[2] Geopolitical tensions ease, Oil drops and stocks surge, PLTR crushes earnings URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/geopolitical-tensions-ease-oil-drops-and-stocks-surge-pltr-crushes-earnings-202608040954 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 09:54:52 GMT

[3] Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC advances amid ETF inflows, but oil-driven inflation fears limit upside URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-price-forecast-btc-advances-amid-etf-inflows-but-oil-driven-inflation-fears-limit-upside-202608040947 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 09:47:02 GMT

[4] Sweden: Inflation forecast - July inflation preview URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/sweden-inflation-forecast-july-inflation-preview-202608040944 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 09:44:45 GMT

[5] Japanese Yen: Managed JPY signals new order - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-managed-jpy-signals-new-order-rabobank-202608040942 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 09:42:13 GMT

[6] Volatility waits for fresh catalyst ahead of US-Iran 'talks' URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/volatility-waits-for-fresh-catalyst-ahead-of-us-iran-talks-202608040941 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 09:41:33 GMT

[7] Euro advances as ECB tightening expectations, Japan fiscal concerns weigh on Yen URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-advances-as-ecb-tightening-expectations-japan-fiscal-concerns-weigh-on-yen-202608040935 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 09:35:22 GMT

[8] Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608040930 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 09:30:12 GMT

[9] WTI - Gap fill opportunity with asymmetric risk/reward [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/wti-gap-fill-opportunity-with-asymmetric-risk-reward-video-202608040926 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 09:26:48 GMT

[10] South African Rand: Rate hold seen hurting currency - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-african-rand-rate-hold-seen-hurting-currency-commerzbank-202608040925 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 09:25:21 GMT

[11] US Dollar: NFP and inflation mix complicate Fed path - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-nfp-and-inflation-mix-complicate-fed-path-bny-202608040915 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 09:15:55 GMT

[12] New Zealand Dollar: Jobs data and RBNZ hiking path - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-jobs-data-and-rbnz-hiking-path-ing-202608040906 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 09:06:00 GMT

[13] NZD/USD Price Forecast: Holds steady near 0.5870 as bullish bias remains URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-holds-steady-near-05870-as-bullish-bias-remains-202608040905 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 09:05:26 GMT

[14] Euro holds ground as Eurozone growth data offsets oil-driven CAD gains URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-holds-ground-as-eurozone-growth-data-offsets-oil-driven-cad-gains-202608040903 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 09:03:06 GMT

[15] Japanese Yen: Joint intervention threat curtails selling - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-joint-intervention-threat-curtails-selling-mufg-202608040857 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:57:51 GMT

[16] Spain 6-Month Letras Auction climbed from previous 2.385% to 2.496% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-6-month-letras-auction-climbed-from-previous-2385-to-2496-202608040854 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:54:11 GMT

[17] EUR/USD Price Forecast: Needs to take out 1.1600 decisively for fresh upside URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-needs-to-take-out-11600-decisively-for-fresh-upside-202608040851 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:51:36 GMT

[18] USD/JPY lower on US intervention, buy the dip? US indices record highs, Nasdaq to catch up? [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/usd-jpy-lower-on-us-intervention-buy-the-dip-us-indices-record-highs-nasdaq-to-catch-up-video-202608040851 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:51:31 GMT

[19] Australian Dollar: Upside risk capped by 0.7075 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-upside-risk-capped-by-07075-against-us-dollar-uob-202608040847 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:47:31 GMT

[20] USD/CAD Price Forecast: Forming a triangle pattern above 1.4000 support area URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-forming-a-triangle-pattern-above-14000-support-area-202608040847 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:47:16 GMT

[21] Spain 12-Month Letras Auction increased to 2.663% from previous 2.5% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-12-month-letras-auction-increased-to-2663-from-previous-25-202608040844 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:44:46 GMT

[22] US Dollar: Solid manufacturing and JOLTs in focus - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-solid-manufacturing-and-jolts-in-focus-danske-bank-202608040837 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:37:19 GMT

[23] USD edges higher as do US equities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/usd-edges-higher-as-do-us-equities-202608040834 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:34:12 GMT

[24] Hong Kong SAR Retail Sales: 4.6% (June) vs previous 7.9% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/hong-kong-sar-retail-sales-46-june-vs-previous-79-202608040830 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:30:19 GMT

[25] Turkish Lira: July inflation and FX rules weigh on lira - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkish-lira-july-inflation-and-fx-rules-weigh-on-lira-commerzbank-202608040830 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:30:14 GMT

[26] Gold: The calm before the storm URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-the-calm-before-the-storm-202608040828 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:28:59 GMT

[27] Stock markets soar as predicted - Emini S&P and Emini Dow Jones hit new all time high [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/stock-markets-soar-as-predicted-emini-sp-and-emini-dow-jones-hit-new-all-time-high-video-202608040826 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:26:21 GMT

[28] CEE FX: Rates relief and CNB meeting - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/cee-fx-rates-relief-and-cnb-meeting-ing-202608040818 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:18:58 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (6):

[BREAKING] [1] Iran would control inbound Hormuz shipping under temporary plan with Oman - Reuters Time: 2026-08-04T09:48:20.456Z

[2] Tehran records heaviest damage in latest war, municipal report shows Time: 2026-08-04T09:22:33.645Z

[3] Aramco sidesteps Hormuz as Iran crisis cuts flows to a tenth Time: 2026-08-04T09:21:13.226Z

[4] Liberia-flagged dry bulk ship hit near Oman in Strait of Hormuz, one missing - Reuters Time: 2026-08-04T09:12:48.571Z

[5] Iranian lawmaker threatens to impeach Foreign Minister Araghchi Time: 2026-08-04T09:00:29.229Z

[6] Iran emerged victorious from confrontation, Hezbollah chief says Time: 2026-08-04T07:53:50.390Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 157 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 12 of 60 normal daily — 11.1% of normal
Throughput: 11.0% of normal (1.1M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 455
Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 33.3x normal
Tanker Rates: WS375 (+650% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost