Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-04 04:01:10 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +1.8% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (7 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	DIX 0.468 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.87 call-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +6.7B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 66% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +7.6% growth optimism · real yield 2.47% restrictive
Correlations	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	SPY/VIX -0.85 normal, SPY/DXY -0.29 normal, SPY/TNX -0.23 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.59 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.9 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 140 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.73 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 18 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	USD/JPY 5d -3.9% yen strengthening, MOVE 80 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.84% benign, NFCI -0.554 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally — dark pool, gamma, and breadth align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 86/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.468; GEX positive at 6.7B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $758.05 | 50 SMA $744.99 | 200 SMA $700.39 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $743.12
QQQ: $701.00 | 50 SMA $715.09 | 200 SMA $645.04 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $680.82
IWM: $296.66 | 50 SMA $292.49 | 200 SMA $265.86 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $291.82
VIX: 15.86 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.686%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$758.05	48.39	46.8	$743.12	Bearish	2.38
QQQ	$701.00	40.06	60.3	$680.82	Bearish	0.21
IWM	$296.66	45.89	15.0	$291.82	Neutral	0.65

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.86	46.47	63.3	$10.50	Neutral	1.05
TNX	46.86	63.13	24.9	-	-	-
GLD	$371.88	53.82	26.9	$371.22	Neutral	0.87
DXY	99.96	35.53	34.0	-	-	-
SLV	$52.57	50.70	14.7	$52.00	Bearish	0.36

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.468
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.67B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.84% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.99%
2s10s Spread: 0.45% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 65.7%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.8%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
Mag 7 Concentration: 32.0%
Top 10 Concentration: 42.3%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Financials	91.0%	0/0
Health Care	87.0%	0/0
Communication Services	75.0%	0/0
Energy	68.4%	0/0
Real Estate	67.9%	0/0
Industrials	65.7%	0/0
Consumer Staples	61.8%	0/0
Materials	58.3%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	54.2%	0/0
Technology	50.8%	0/0
Utilities	26.7%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $80.06 (5d: +1.0%)
Brent Crude: $83.51 | Spread: $3.45
RBOB Gasoline: $2.9600/gal
Heating Oil: $3.8600/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.86/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $58.79
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.11

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.847	normal
SPY / DXY	-0.288	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.228	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.592	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 80.48
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 4,590,893.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,977,280.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.87 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $649.2B
Gamma Call Wall: $760 | Put Wall: $745 (Spot: $758.05)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -17,196 contracts (Z +2.09, as of 2026-07-28)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.69%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.99 (Normal)
DXY: 99.96
Growth vs Value: 0.92
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.23% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.27%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.31%
Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6738.2B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $910.8B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.1B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,825B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,846B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,069B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,739B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,634 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] USD/JPY 5d RoC at -3.9% — yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.468, GEX +6.7B, HY OAS 2.84%, breadth 66%.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~270h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~126h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
[INFO] SPY (739.27) reclaimed ZGL (738.52) — volatility dampening resumes.

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.29%
Median Return: +1.35%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (↑8.4% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.49 (↑17.3% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.5% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.70 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.81 (↓3.5% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓1.5% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.96 (↑2.2% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (26):

[1] United States Dollar holds gains amid Middle East uncertainty, hawkish Fed odds URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-holds-gains-amid-middle-east-uncertainty-hawkish-fed-odds-202608040800 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:00:06 GMT

[2] CHF/JPY: Will the BOJ step in again? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/chf-jpy-will-the-boj-step-in-again-202608040759 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 07:59:10 GMT

[3] Japanese Yen: Gains against US Dollar to remain limited - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-gains-against-us-dollar-to-remain-limited-td-securities-202608040756 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 07:56:22 GMT

[4] Brent: Sharp drop questions supply fears - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-sharp-drop-questions-supply-fears-rabobank-202608040729 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 07:29:54 GMT

[5] Washington joins the fight for the Yen URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/washington-joins-the-fight-for-the-yen-202608040727 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 07:27:13 GMT

[6] Dollar recovery ahead? EUR/USD stalls, yields rise and JPY intervention dominates [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/dollar-recovery-ahead-eur-usd-stalls-yields-rise-and-jpy-intervention-dominates-video-202608040723 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 07:23:05 GMT

[7] BP and HSBC in focus, as Yen rally takes a break URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/bp-and-hsbc-in-focus-as-yen-rally-takes-a-break-202608040719 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 07:19:42 GMT

[8] British Pound: Pullback seen within 1.3400-1.3475 band against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-pullback-seen-within-13400-13475-band-against-us-dollar-uob-202608040717 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 07:17:15 GMT

[9] The S&P 500 is churning under the surface URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-sp-500-is-churning-under-the-surface-202608040717 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 07:17:00 GMT

[10] Euro stalls against British Pound as geopolitical uncertainty grips markets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-stalls-against-british-pound-as-geopolitical-uncertainty-grips-markets-202608040713 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 07:13:12 GMT

[11] Spain Unemployment Change registered at 19.5K above expectations (-20.3K) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-unemployment-change-registered-at-195k-above-expectations-203k-in-july-202608040700 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 07:00:41 GMT

[12] US Dollar: Warsh tactics cloud Fed path - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-warsh-tactics-cloud-fed-path-commerzbank-202608040700 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 07:00:32 GMT

[13] Forex Today: Mideast uncertainty keeps USD supported ahead of next batch of US data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-mideast-uncertainty-keeps-usd-supported-ahead-of-next-batch-of-us-data-202608040658 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 06:58:03 GMT

[14] Australian Dollar edges higher above 0.7000 on US-Iran breakthrough hopes
URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-edges-higher-above-07000-on-us-iran-breakthrough-hopes-202608040655 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 06:55:21 GMT

[15] Equities: Cyclical rotation extends as tech recovers - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-cyclical-rotation-extends-as-tech-recovers-danske-bank-202608040645 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 06:45:22 GMT

[16] France Budget Balance down to €-106.8B in June from previous €-93.3B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-budget-balance-down-to-eur-1068b-in-june-from-previous-eur-933b-202608040645 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 06:45:03 GMT

[17] Aave Price Forecast: Bearish RSI divergence risks a 20% drop despite steady DeFi deposits URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/aave-price-forecast-bearish-rsi-divergence-risks-a-20-drop-despite-steady-defi-deposits-202608040645 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 06:45:00 GMT

[18] Oil: Deal optimism drives sharp selloff - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-deal-optimism-drives-sharp-selloff-ing-202608040636 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 06:36:27 GMT

[19] Australia RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) down to 15.4% in July from previous 16.9% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-rba-commodity-index-sdr-yoy-down-to-154-in-july-from-previous-169-202608040630 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 06:30:39 GMT

[20] Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD reaches $59.00 amid cautious Iran peace hopes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecasts-xag-usd-reaches-5900-amid-cautious-iran-peace-hopes-202608040628 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 06:28:05 GMT

[21] Euro: Consolidation with upside trigger at 1.1565 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-consolidation-with-upside-trigger-at-11565-against-us-dollar-uob-202608040627 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 06:27:41 GMT

[22] Dogecoin Price Forecast: Bullish divergence hints at DOGE recovery URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/dogecoin-price-forecast-bullish-divergence-hints-at-doge-recovery-202608040623 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 06:23:46 GMT

[23] Saudi Aramco CEO Nasser: Middle East crisis continues to aggravate supply shock URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/saudi-aramco-ceo-nasser-middle-east-crisis-continues-to-aggravate-historically-biggest-supply-shock-202608040622 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 06:22:23 GMT

[24] Canadian Dollar declines ahead of US JOLTS Job Openings data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-declines-ahead-of-us-jolts-job-openings-data-202608040613 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 06:13:46 GMT

[25] GBP/USD Price Forecast: Downward-sloping trendline near 1.3470 remains key barrier URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-downward-sloping-trendline-near-13470-remains-key-barrier-202608040612 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 06:12:28 GMT

[26] Resilience of nuclear power plants to heatwaves URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/resilience-of-nuclear-power-plants-to-heatwaves-202608040603 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 06:03:30 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (1):

[1] Iran's president denies plans to resign, vows to remain in office Time: 2026-08-04T06:30:52.997Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 157 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily — 16.7% of normal
Throughput: 11.0% of normal (1.1M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 351
Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 50.0x normal
Tanker Rates: WS424 (+748% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $8.2 billion/day economic cost