Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-04 08:31:58 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +2.1% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (7 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.468 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.87 call-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +6.7B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 66% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +11.5% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.47% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.85 normal, SPY/DXY -0.29 normal, SPY/TNX -0.23 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.59 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.7 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 140 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 5.79 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 18 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -3.9% yen strengthening, MOVE 80 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.84% benign, NFCI -0.554 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally β dark pool, gamma, and breadth align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 86/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.468; GEX positive at 6.7B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.7 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: BX, FSLR, IEX
- Shorts: VLY, TSCO
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 14% (n=240) | 3d 36% (n=240) | 5d 32% (n=240)
- Screener Board Record: 118 closed (hit rate 50%) Β· 143 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $760.30 | 50 SMA $745.32 | 200 SMA $700.86 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $746.63
- QQQ: $707.52 | 50 SMA $714.83 | 200 SMA $645.55 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $680.97
- IWM: $297.66 | 50 SMA $292.82 | 200 SMA $266.10 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $295.28
- VIX: 15.66 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.668%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $760.30 | 53.93 | 53.0 | $746.63 | Neutral | 0.82 |
| QQQ | $707.52 | 42.06 | 61.4 | $680.97 | Neutral | 0.65 |
| IWM | $297.66 | 52.69 | 24.0 | $295.28 | Neutral | 1.12 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.66 | 48.00 | 63.2 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.03 |
| TNX | 46.68 | 59.13 | 34.5 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $373.78 | 49.58 | 24.5 | $368.94 | Neutral | 0.87 |
| DXY | 99.96 | 40.88 | 34.1 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $54.07 | 47.33 | 13.8 | $51.67 | Neutral | 0.62 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.468
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.67B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.84% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.45% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 65.7%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.8%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.0%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.3%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 91.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 87.0% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 75.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 68.4% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 67.9% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 65.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 61.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 58.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 54.2% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 50.8% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 26.7% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $78.02 (5d: -7.6%)
- Brent Crude: $81.94 | Spread: $3.92
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.6400/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.7600/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $48.54/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $58.79
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.11
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.847 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.288 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.228 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.592 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 80.48
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.87 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $649.2B
- Gamma Call Wall: $760 | Put Wall: $750 (Spot: $760.30)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -17,196 contracts (Z +2.09, as of 2026-07-28)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.67%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.93 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.96
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.23% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.27%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.31%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6738.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $910.8B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.1B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,825B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,846B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,069B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,740B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,780 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] USD/JPY 5d RoC at -3.9% β yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.468, GEX +6.7B, HY OAS 2.84%, breadth 66%.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
- [INFO] SPY (739.27) reclaimed ZGL (738.52) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] SPY (738.09) dropped below ZGL (738.51) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.29%
- Median Return: +1.35%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (β8.4% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.49 (β17.3% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (β15.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.70 (β1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.81 (β3.5% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β1.5% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.96 (β2.2% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (11):
[1] South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales rose from previous 54482 to 57708 in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-africa-total-new-vehicle-sales-rose-from-previous-54482-to-57708-in-july-202608041230 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 12:30:02 GMT
[2] Canada Imports increased to $73.63B in June from previous $72.86B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-imports-increased-to-7363b-in-june-from-previous-7286b-202608041230 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 12:30:01 GMT
[3] United States Goods and Services Trade Balance came in at $-73.3B below forecasts ($-73B) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-goods-and-services-trade-balance-came-in-at-733b-below-forecasts-73b-in-june-202608041230 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 12:30:01 GMT
[4] Canada International Merchandise Trade registered at $3.86B above expectations ($3B) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-international-merchandise-trade-registered-at-386b-above-expectations-3b-in-june-202608041230 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 12:30:01 GMT
[5] Canada Exports up to $77.49B in June from previous $77.09B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-exports-up-to-7749b-in-june-from-previous-7709b-202608041230 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 12:30:01 GMT
[6] Ripple Price Forecast: XRP extends technical weakness despite whales increasing exposure URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ripple-price-forecast-xrp-extends-technical-weakness-despite-whales-increasing-exposure-202608041230 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 12:30:00 GMT
[7] Japanese Yen: Joint intervention lifts JPY against US Dollar - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-joint-intervention-lifts-jpy-against-us-dollar-rabobank-202608041218 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 12:18:20 GMT
[8] GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Bears test 200-day SMA after sharp sell-off URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-jpy-price-forecast-bears-test-200-day-sma-after-sharp-selloff-202608041211 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 12:11:27 GMT
[9] US Treasury Secretary Bessent says Hormuz deal nears as Oil prices tumble URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-treasury-secretary-bessent-says-hormuz-deal-nears-as-oil-prices-tumble-202608041208 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 12:08:16 GMT
[10] The intervention to halt the slide of the Yen URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-intervention-to-halt-the-slide-of-the-yen-202608041203 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 12:03:28 GMT
[11] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP finds footing at 1.3420 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-finds-footing-at-13420-202608041201 Published: Tue, 04 Aug 2026 12:01:51 GMT
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 157 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 12 of 60 normal daily β 20.0% of normal
- Throughput: 20.0% of normal (2.1M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 53.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS185 (+270% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost