Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-03 06:01:19 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (4 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	DIX 0.456 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.97 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +5.7B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 63% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +8.4% growth optimism · real yield 2.41% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.96 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.42 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.01 normal, SPY/Oil -0.51 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 16.0 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 141 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.73 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 18 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	USD/JPY 5d -3.9% yen strengthening, MOVE 83 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.84% moderate, NFCI -0.554 loose

Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, breadth, and inflation leaning bullish, but structural signals haven't signed on yet — rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 83/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.456; GEX positive at 5.7B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.0 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $744.39 | 50 SMA $744.72 | 200 SMA $699.97 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $743.47
QQQ: $684.61 | 50 SMA $715.36 | 200 SMA $644.61 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $670.95
IWM: $289.81 | 50 SMA $292.13 | 200 SMA $265.62 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $292.81
VIX: 15.99 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.745%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$744.39	40.07	44.9	$743.47	Bearish	0.38
QQQ	$684.61	33.71	60.9	$670.95	Neutral	0.69
IWM	$289.81	44.11	14.8	$292.81	Bearish	6.65

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.99	55.85	61.8	$10.51	Neutral	1.00
TNX	47.45	59.87	19.7	-	-	-
GLD	$370.58	50.12	25.7	$371.84	Neutral	1.22
DXY	99.80	29.35	38.7	-	-	-
SLV	$52.07	48.49	14.2	$40.46	Bearish	0.41

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.456
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.74B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.84% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.99%
2s10s Spread: 0.47% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 62.9%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 68.0%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.8%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Financials	89.6%	0/0
Energy	84.2%	0/0
Health Care	83.3%	0/0
Consumer Staples	64.7%	0/0
Industrials	59.7%	0/0
Real Estate	57.1%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	55.9%	0/0
Materials	54.2%	0/0
Communication Services	50.0%	0/0
Technology	49.2%	0/0
Utilities	16.7%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: ELEVATED
WTI Crude: $86.80 (5d: +5.1%)
Brent Crude: $90.12 | Spread: $3.32
RBOB Gasoline: $3.1700/gal
Heating Oil: $4.1900/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $60.62/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $59.55
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.06

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.96	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.422	elevated
SPY / TNX	-0.008	normal
SPY / Oil	-0.514	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 83.02
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.19 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 4,958,949.0
0DTE Put Volume: 4,828,008.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.97 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $731.1B
Gamma Call Wall: $749 | Put Wall: $730 (Spot: $744.39)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) · below 20,50d

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -17,196 contracts (Z +2.09, as of 2026-07-28)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.75%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.06 (Normal)
DXY: 99.80
Growth vs Value: 0.92
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.26% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.28%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.30%
Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6738.2B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $910.8B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.2B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,825B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,857B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,087B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,745B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,748 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.514 with energy in ELEVATED — crude shock propagating into equities.
[WARNING] SKEW at 141 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] USD/JPY 5d RoC at -3.9% — yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.456, GEX +5.7B, HY OAS 2.84%, breadth 63%.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~244h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 14 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: acm_term_premium_10y has printed the same value (0.84) for 5 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 77 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_max_pain has printed the same value (735.0) for 23 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.

Seasonality

Current Month: July
Average Return: +2.54%
Median Return: +2.28%
Hit Rate: 80%
Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (↑8.4% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.49 (↑17.3% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.6% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.68 (↑1.2% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.77 (↓3.8% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.89 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.91 (↑0.2% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (28):

[1] New Zealand Dollar eases as markets focus on US-Iran talks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-eases-as-markets-focus-on-us-iran-talks-202608031000 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 10:00:31 GMT

[2] US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to show strong factory activity in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-ism-manufacturing-pmi-is-expected-to-show-strong-factory-activity-in-july-202608031000 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 10:00:00 GMT

[3] Euro area: Services PMI and inflation risks - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-area-services-pmi-and-inflation-risks-bny-202608030954 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 09:54:48 GMT

[4] Iran de-escalation drives risk-on URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/iran-de-escalation-drives-risk-on-202608030953 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 09:53:40 GMT

[5] British Pound eases to 1.3450 area following downwardly revised Manufacturing PMI data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-eases-to-13450-area-following-downwardly-revised-manufacturing-pmi-data-202608030952 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 09:52:59 GMT

[6] Rising Africa Trader Cup Opens Across 37 African Countries, Giving Traders an Equal Start and a Shot at Cash Prizes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/rising-africa-trader-cup-opens-across-37-african-countries-giving-traders-an-equal-start-and-a-shot-at-cash-prizes-202608030944 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 09:44:22 GMT

[7] Cryptocurrencies left out of risk-on move URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-left-out-of-risk-on-move-202608030942 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 09:42:47 GMT

[8] EUR/USD: Busy week ahead URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-usd-busy-week-ahead-202608030939 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 09:39:26 GMT

[9] Gold: Explosive phase, muted correction - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-explosive-phase-muted-correction-deutsche-bank-202608030937 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 09:37:51 GMT

[10] Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608030931 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 09:31:22 GMT

[11] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD struggles to extend opening gains amid hawkish Fed bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-struggles-to-extend-opening-gains-amid-hawkish-fed-bets-202608030920 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 09:20:57 GMT

[12] Oil: prices slide on halted strikes - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-prices-slide-on-halted-strikes-commerzbank-202608030916 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 09:16:40 GMT

[13] BTC/USD - Sell trade Idea [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/btc-usd-sell-trade-idea-video-202608030915 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 09:15:42 GMT

[14] Swiss Franc weakens following soft inflation, manufacturing data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-weakens-following-soft-inflation-manufacturing-data-202608030912 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 09:12:08 GMT

[15] Japanese Yen: Intervention fears cap losses against US Dollar - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-intervention-fears-cap-losses-against-us-dollar-rabobank-202608030901 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 09:01:47 GMT

[16] AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Defends 200-day SMA below mid-109.00s after range breakdown URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-jpy-price-forecast-defends-200-day-sma-below-mid-10900s-after-range-breakdown-202608030857 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 08:57:40 GMT

[17] Gold stays cautious as Fed rate hike bets keep markets on edge URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-stays-cautious-as-fed-rate-hike-bets-keep-markets-on-edge-202608030855 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 08:55:52 GMT

[18] Euro strengthens against Canadian Dollar despite mixed German data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-strengthens-against-canadian-dollar-despite-mixed-german-data-202608030854 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 08:54:02 GMT

[19] Risk sentiment rising URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/risk-sentiment-rising-202608030842 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 08:42:25 GMT

[20] Market sentiment remains positive URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/market-sentiment-remains-positive-202608030840 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 08:40:35 GMT

[21] Swiss Franc: inflation undershoots SNB outlook - Nomura URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-inflation-undershoots-snb-outlook-nomura-202608030840 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 08:40:04 GMT

[22] Euro remains near seven-week highs after downwardly revised Eurozone Manufacturing PMI URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-remains-near-seven-week-highs-after-downwardly-revised-eurozone-manufacturing-pmi-202608030833 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 08:33:44 GMT

[23] Euro: Fed uncertainty limits gains against US Dollar - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-fed-uncertainty-limits-gains-against-us-dollar-ing-202608030830 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 08:30:30 GMT

[24] United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.9, below expectations (52.8) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-came-in-at-519-below-expectations-528-in-july-202608030830 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 08:30:02 GMT

[25] Equities: AI reassessment shakes global markets - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-ai-reassessment-shakes-global-markets-deutsche-bank-202608030822 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 08:22:05 GMT

[26] Dow Jones futures advance as oil prices fall on US-Iran diplomatic signals URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-advance-as-oil-prices-fall-on-us-iran-diplomatic-signals-202608030816 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 08:16:36 GMT

[27] Crypto treasury firm ZeroStack warns of survival risk amid $82.5M loss URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-treasury-firm-zerostack-warns-of-survival-risk-amid-825m-loss-202608030813 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 08:13:44 GMT

[28] Japanese Yen: Joint intervention reshapes FX dynamics - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-joint-intervention-reshapes-fx-dynamics-commerzbank-202608030808 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 08:08:41 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (5):

[BREAKING] [1] Iran hit MQ-9 drone over Strait of Hormuz - IRGC media Time: 2026-08-03T09:25:07.941Z

[2] Iran demands 'practical action' from Ukraine over ship attack Time: 2026-08-03T09:20:54.202Z

[3] Up to 5 million barrels of oil flowing through Hormuz daily - CNN Time: 2026-08-03T08:58:09.884Z

[4] Watch: Trump says US held off 'massive attack' on Iran to pursue deal Time: 2026-08-03T08:37:25.064Z

[5] Fire extinguished at Iraq's Baiji oil complex, no injuries reported - state media Time: 2026-08-03T08:30:33.132Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 156 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 8 of 60 normal daily — 13.3% of normal
Throughput: 13.3% of normal (1.4M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 150
Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 56.7x normal
Tanker Rates: WS115 (+130% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.5 billion/day economic cost