Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-03 04:01:04 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (4 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	DIX 0.456 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.97 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +5.7B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 63% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +8.4% growth optimism · real yield 2.41% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.96 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.42 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.01 normal, SPY/Oil -0.51 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 16.0 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 141 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.73 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 18 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	USD/JPY 5d -3.9% yen strengthening, MOVE 83 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.84% moderate, NFCI -0.554 loose

Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, breadth, and inflation leaning bullish, but structural signals haven't signed on yet — rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 83/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.456; GEX positive at 5.7B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.0 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $744.39 | 50 SMA $744.72 | 200 SMA $699.97 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $743.47
QQQ: $684.61 | 50 SMA $715.36 | 200 SMA $644.61 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $670.95
IWM: $289.81 | 50 SMA $292.13 | 200 SMA $265.62 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $292.81
VIX: 15.99 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.745%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$744.39	40.07	44.9	$743.47	Bearish	0.38
QQQ	$684.61	33.71	60.9	$670.95	Neutral	0.69
IWM	$289.81	44.11	14.8	$292.81	Bearish	6.65

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.99	55.85	61.8	$10.51	Neutral	1.00
TNX	47.45	59.87	19.7	-	-	-
GLD	$370.58	50.12	25.7	$371.84	Neutral	1.22
DXY	99.80	29.35	38.7	-	-	-
SLV	$52.07	48.49	14.2	$40.46	Bearish	0.41

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.456
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.74B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.84% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.99%
2s10s Spread: 0.47% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 62.9%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 68.0%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.8%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Financials	89.6%	0/0
Energy	84.2%	0/0
Health Care	83.3%	0/0
Consumer Staples	64.7%	0/0
Industrials	59.7%	0/0
Real Estate	57.1%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	55.9%	0/0
Materials	54.2%	0/0
Communication Services	50.0%	0/0
Technology	49.2%	0/0
Utilities	16.7%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: ELEVATED
WTI Crude: $86.80 (5d: +5.1%)
Brent Crude: $90.12 | Spread: $3.32
RBOB Gasoline: $3.1700/gal
Heating Oil: $4.1900/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $60.62/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $59.55
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.06

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.96	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.422	elevated
SPY / TNX	-0.008	normal
SPY / Oil	-0.514	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 83.02
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.19 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 4,958,949.0
0DTE Put Volume: 4,828,008.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.97 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $731.1B
Gamma Call Wall: $749 | Put Wall: $730 (Spot: $744.39)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) · below 20,50d

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -17,196 contracts (Z +2.09, as of 2026-07-28)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.75%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.06 (Normal)
DXY: 99.80
Growth vs Value: 0.92
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.26% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.28%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.30%
Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6738.2B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $910.8B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.2B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,825B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,857B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,087B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,745B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,537 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.514 with energy in ELEVATED — crude shock propagating into equities.
[WARNING] SKEW at 141 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] USD/JPY 5d RoC at -3.9% — yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.456, GEX +5.7B, HY OAS 2.84%, breadth 63%.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~244h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~100h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 14 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: acm_term_premium_10y has printed the same value (0.84) for 5 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 77 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.

Seasonality

Current Month: July
Average Return: +2.54%
Median Return: +2.28%
Hit Rate: 80%
Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (↑8.4% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.49 (↑17.3% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.6% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.68 (↑1.2% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.77 (↓3.8% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.89 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.91 (↑0.2% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (29):

[1] Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI below expectations (52) in July: Actual (51.9) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-hcob-manufacturing-pmi-below-expectations-52-in-july-actual-519-202608030800 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 08:00:05 GMT

[2] Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI increased to 54.3 in July from previous 53.8 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/greece-sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-increased-to-543-in-july-from-previous-538-202608030800 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 08:00:02 GMT

[3] WTI trades below mid-$78.00s, down nearly 8% for the day amid Iran peace deal hopes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-trades-below-mid-7800s-down-nearly-8-for-the-day-amid-iran-peace-deal-hopes-202608030758 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 07:58:28 GMT

[4] Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI meets forecasts (52.2) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-hcob-manufacturing-pmi-meets-forecasts-522-in-july-202608030755 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 07:55:08 GMT

[5] United States Dollar Index drops to near $77.50 due to Japanese FX interventions URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-drops-to-near-7750-due-to-japanese-fx-interventions-202608030752 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 07:52:53 GMT

[6] France HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.8, below expectations (50) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-hcob-manufacturing-pmi-came-in-at-498-below-expectations-50-in-july-202608030750 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 07:50:01 GMT

[7] British Pound: Rally may stall near 1.3555 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-rally-may-stall-near-13555-against-us-dollar-uob-202608030746 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 07:46:40 GMT

[8] Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (52.5) in July: Actual (51.3) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-hcob-manufacturing-pmi-below-forecasts-525-in-july-actual-513-202608030745 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 07:45:03 GMT

[9] Iran's Baghaei: No talks with US currently regarding Hormuz URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/irans-baghaei-no-talks-with-us-currently-regarding-hormuz-202608030740 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 07:40:12 GMT

[10] Oil: Red sea disruptions reshape global flows - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-red-sea-disruptions-reshape-global-flows-societe-generale-202608030735 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 07:35:22 GMT

[11] Switzerland SVME - Purchasing Managers' Index came in at 53.2, below expectations (54.5) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/switzerland-svme-purchasing-managers-index-came-in-at-532-below-expectations-545-in-july-202608030730 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 07:30:00 GMT

[12] Important trading levels for the Dollar this week [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/important-trading-levels-for-the-dollar-this-week-video-202608030725 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 07:25:42 GMT

[13] US Dollar Index: Fed hike expectations support DXY - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-fed-hike-expectations-support-dxy-ing-202608030722 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 07:22:01 GMT

[14] Fed credibility, Yen intervention, and the countdown to NFP URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/fed-credibility-yen-intervention-and-the-countdown-to-nfp-202608030719 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 07:19:03 GMT

[15] AUD/USD Price Forecast: Faces rejection near 100-day SMA at 0.7050; bullish bias intact URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-price-forecast-faces-rejection-near-100-day-sma-at-07050-bullish-bias-intact-202608030716 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 07:16:28 GMT

[16] Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.2 below forecasts (50.7) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-hcob-manufacturing-pmi-came-in-at-502-below-forecasts-507-in-july-202608030715 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 07:15:02 GMT

[17] Equities: Sector rotations shape summer performance - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-sector-rotations-shape-summer-performance-danske-bank-202608030711 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 07:11:42 GMT

[18] The week ahead: Risk is back, as we wait for Payrolls URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-week-ahead-risk-is-back-as-we-wait-for-payrolls-202608030710 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 07:10:51 GMT

[19] Swiss Franc declines against US Dollar amid hawkish Fed bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-declines-against-us-dollar-amid-hawkish-fed-bets-202608030707 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 07:07:00 GMT

[20] Some losses for the Dollar after the Fed holds and GDP lower URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/some-losses-for-the-dollar-after-the-fed-holds-and-gdp-lower-202608030701 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 07:01:35 GMT

[21] Turkey Producer Price Index (YoY) fell from previous 28.09% to 27.83% in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkey-producer-price-index-yoy-fell-from-previous-2809-to-2783-in-july-202608030700 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 07:00:33 GMT

[22] Turkey Producer Price Index (MoM) fell from previous 1.8% to 1.52% in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkey-producer-price-index-mom-fell-from-previous-18-to-152-in-july-202608030700 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 07:00:32 GMT

[23] Turkey Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 1.78%, below expectations (1.83%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkey-consumer-price-index-mom-came-in-at-178-below-expectations-183-in-july-202608030700 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 07:00:32 GMT

[24] Turkey Consumer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (31.8%) in July: Actual (31.75%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkey-consumer-price-index-yoy-below-forecasts-318-in-july-actual-3175-202608030700 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 07:00:32 GMT

[25] Austria Unemployment Rate remains unchanged at 6.9% in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/austria-unemployment-rate-remains-unchanged-at-69-in-july-202608030659 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 06:59:51 GMT

[26] Austria Unemployment up to 298.9K in July from previous 295.5K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/austria-unemployment-up-to-2989k-in-july-from-previous-2955k-202608030659 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 06:59:50 GMT

[27] Forex Today: Mood improves as US and Iran renew push for diplomatic solution URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-mood-improves-as-us-and-iran-renew-push-for-diplomatic-solution-202608030657 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 06:57:40 GMT

[28] AI optimism faces fresh test as markets reassess technology leaders URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ai-optimism-faces-fresh-test-as-markets-reassess-technology-leaders-202608030651 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 06:51:45 GMT

[29] Japanese Yen: Joint intervention signals potential turning point - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-joint-intervention-signals-potential-turning-point-mufg-202608030651 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 06:51:30 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (4):

[1] Iran, Turkey defense ministers discuss regional security Time: 2026-08-03T07:49:07.067Z

[2] Iran says no talks underway with US, discusses temporary Hormuz route with Oman Time: 2026-08-03T07:21:01.294Z

[3] 'Disastrous' economic management to trigger new inflation wave, Iran MP warns Time: 2026-08-03T06:27:29.441Z

[4] CENTCOM seeks creative, unconventional ways to pressure Iran - CNN Time: 2026-08-03T05:50:26.539Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 156 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily — 8.3% of normal
Throughput: 8.3% of normal (0.8M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 455
Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 56.7x normal
Tanker Rates: WS285 (+470% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost