Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-03 02:01:31 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (4 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	DIX 0.456 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.97 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +5.7B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 63% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +8.4% growth optimism · real yield 2.41% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.96 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.42 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.01 normal, SPY/Oil -0.51 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 16.0 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 141 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.73 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 18 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	USD/JPY 5d -3.9% yen strengthening, MOVE 83 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.84% moderate, NFCI -0.554 loose

Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, breadth, and inflation leaning bullish, but structural signals haven't signed on yet — rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 83/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.456; GEX positive at 5.7B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.0 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $744.39 | 50 SMA $744.72 | 200 SMA $699.97 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $743.47
QQQ: $684.61 | 50 SMA $715.36 | 200 SMA $644.61 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $670.95
IWM: $289.81 | 50 SMA $292.13 | 200 SMA $265.62 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $292.81
VIX: 15.99 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.745%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$744.39	40.07	44.9	$743.47	Bearish	0.38
QQQ	$684.61	33.71	60.9	$670.95	Neutral	0.69
IWM	$289.81	44.11	14.8	$292.81	Bearish	6.65

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.99	55.85	61.8	$10.51	Neutral	1.00
TNX	47.45	59.87	19.7	-	-	-
GLD	$370.58	50.12	25.7	$371.84	Neutral	1.22
DXY	99.80	29.35	38.7	-	-	-
SLV	$52.07	48.49	14.2	$40.46	Bearish	0.41

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.456
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.74B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.84% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.99%
2s10s Spread: 0.47% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 62.9%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 68.0%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.8%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Financials	89.6%	0/0
Energy	84.2%	0/0
Health Care	83.3%	0/0
Consumer Staples	64.7%	0/0
Industrials	59.7%	0/0
Real Estate	57.1%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	55.9%	0/0
Materials	54.2%	0/0
Communication Services	50.0%	0/0
Technology	49.2%	0/0
Utilities	16.7%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: ELEVATED
WTI Crude: $86.80 (5d: +5.1%)
Brent Crude: $90.12 | Spread: $3.32
RBOB Gasoline: $3.1700/gal
Heating Oil: $4.1900/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $60.62/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $59.55
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.06

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.96	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.422	elevated
SPY / TNX	-0.008	normal
SPY / Oil	-0.514	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 83.02
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.19 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 4,958,949.0
0DTE Put Volume: 4,828,008.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.97 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $731.1B
Gamma Call Wall: $720 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $744.39)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) · below 20,50d

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -17,196 contracts (Z +2.09, as of 2026-07-28)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.75%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.06 (Normal)
DXY: 99.80
Growth vs Value: 0.92
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.26% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.28%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.30%
Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6738.2B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $910.8B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.2B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,825B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,857B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,087B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,745B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,745 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.514 with energy in ELEVATED — crude shock propagating into equities.
[WARNING] SKEW at 141 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] USD/JPY 5d RoC at -3.9% — yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.456, GEX +5.7B, HY OAS 2.84%, breadth 63%.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~244h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~100h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~76h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 14 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: acm_term_premium_10y has printed the same value (0.84) for 5 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.

Seasonality

Current Month: July
Average Return: +2.54%
Median Return: +2.28%
Hit Rate: 80%
Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (↑8.4% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.49 (↑17.3% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.6% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.68 (↑1.2% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.77 (↓3.8% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.89 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.91 (↑0.2% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (30):

[1] Germany Retail Sales (MoM) came in at -1.1% below forecasts (-0.5%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-retail-sales-mom-came-in-at-11-below-forecasts-05-in-june-202608030600 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 06:00:04 GMT

[2] Germany Retail Sales (YoY): -0.2% (June) vs previous 1.8% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-retail-sales-yoy-02-june-vs-previous-18-202608030600 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 06:00:04 GMT

[3] Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose from previous 50.3 to 50.7 in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/russia-sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-rose-from-previous-503-to-507-in-july-202608030600 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 06:00:02 GMT

[4] Cryptocurrencies Price Prediction: Solana, Cardano & Bitcoin - Asian Wrap 03 August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-solana-cardano-bitcoin-asian-wrap-03-august-202608030558 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 05:58:30 GMT

[5] Oil lower after Trump says Iran talks will resume URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/oil-lower-after-trump-says-iran-talks-will-resume-202608030549 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 05:49:24 GMT

[6] Indonesian Rupiah holds gains as manufacturing PMI expands in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesian-rupiah-holds-gains-as-manufacturing-pmi-expands-in-july-202608030548 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 05:48:20 GMT

[7] Oil falls on US pause in hostilities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/oil-falls-on-us-pause-in-hostilities-202608030546 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 05:46:06 GMT

[8] Japanese Yen jumps as US-Japan confirm joint intervention, hint further action URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-jumps-as-us-japan-confirm-joint-intervention-hint-further-action-202608030534 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 05:34:56 GMT

[9] Morning briefing: Euro could limit its immediate upside to 1.1600 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/morning-briefing-euro-could-limit-its-immediate-upside-to-11600-202608030528 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 05:28:34 GMT

[10] Indian Rupee starts the week with a bang on US-Iran peace 2.0 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-starts-the-week-with-a-bang-on-us-iran-peace-20-202608030528 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 05:28:27 GMT

[11] EUR/USD builds on gains as bulls eye higher levels URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-usd-builds-on-gains-as-bulls-eye-higher-levels-202608030527 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 05:27:29 GMT

[12] CNB decision in focus as CEE data test growth momentum URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/cnb-decision-in-focus-as-cee-data-test-growth-momentum-202608030524 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 05:24:33 GMT

[13] Asian stocks trade mixed as AI-led selloff and Yen rally counter Iran optimism URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/asian-stocks-trade-mixed-as-ai-led-selloff-and-yen-rally-counter-iran-optimism-202608030517 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 05:17:45 GMT

[14] EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Breaks below 179.50 as bearish bias prevails URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-price-forecast-breaks-below-17950-as-bearish-bias-prevails-202608030511 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 05:11:59 GMT

[15] Saudi Arabia Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/saudi-arabia-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608030505 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 05:05:20 GMT

[16] India HSBC Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (53.9) in July: Actual (53.5) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-hsbc-manufacturing-pmi-below-forecasts-539-in-july-actual-535-202608030502 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 05:02:49 GMT

[17] Netherlands, The Nevi Manufacturing PMI fell from previous 55.5 to 54.4 in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/netherlands-the-nevi-manufacturing-pmi-fell-from-previous-555-to-544-in-july-202608030501 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 05:01:14 GMT

[18] Philippines Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/philippines-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608030500 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 05:00:50 GMT

[19] Solana Price Forecast: SOL risks a steeper decline below $70 despite steady ETF inflows URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/solana-price-forecast-sol-risks-a-steeper-decline-below-70-despite-steady-etf-inflows-202608030457 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 04:57:36 GMT

[20] United Arab Emirates Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-arab-emirates-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608030455 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 04:55:02 GMT

[21] Cardano Price Forecast: Whale buying, derivatives metrics fuel ADA rally URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cardano-price-forecast-whale-buying-derivatives-metrics-fuel-ada-rally-202608030455 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 04:55:01 GMT

[22] EUR/USD Price Forecast: Gains traction above 1.1500, while remaining constrained below 100-day SMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-gains-traction-above-11500-while-remaining-constrained-below-100-day-sma-202608030449 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 04:49:25 GMT

[23] Pakistan Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pakistan-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608030445 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 04:45:13 GMT

[24] Gold holds above $4,050 as easing inflation fears curb Fed hike bets; USD bounce caps gains URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-holds-above-4-050-as-easing-inflation-fears-curb-fed-hike-bets-usd-bounce-caps-gains-202608030440 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 04:40:49 GMT

[25] Indonesia Trade Balance came in at $-0.45B, above expectations ($-0.79B) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesia-trade-balance-came-in-at-045b-above-expectations-079b-in-june-202608030439 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 04:39:46 GMT

[26] Indonesia Imports registered at 34.27% above expectations (25.3%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesia-imports-registered-at-3427-above-expectations-253-in-june-202608030439 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 04:39:36 GMT

[27] India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608030435 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 04:35:27 GMT

[28] Netherlands, The Retail Sales (YoY) up to 4.3% in June from previous 2.9% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/netherlands-the-retail-sales-yoy-up-to-43-in-june-from-previous-29-202608030431 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 04:31:36 GMT

[29] Indonesia Exports above forecasts (0.25%) in June: Actual (8.84%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesia-exports-above-forecasts-025-in-june-actual-884-202608030431 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 04:31:00 GMT

[30] Malaysia Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/malaysia-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608030430 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 04:30:09 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (5):

[1] Iran can plunge Arab states into crisis within half a day, hardline daily says Time: 2026-08-03T05:35:47.327Z

[BREAKING] [2] Iran hangs two men on accusations of spying for Israel Time: 2026-08-03T05:04:40.306Z

[3] US used 2,000-pound bomb in strike on Iran's southern Island - NYT Time: 2026-08-03T05:01:21.438Z

[4] Trump will resume strikes on Iran without rapid deal, Republican senator says Time: 2026-08-03T04:41:31.390Z

[5] Trump proposal links Hormuz reopening to lifting US blockade on Iran - AP Time: 2026-08-03T04:21:41.567Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 156 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 19 of 60 normal daily — 31.7% of normal
Throughput: 18.3% of normal (1.9M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 156
Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 56.7x normal
Tanker Rates: WS285 (+470% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.1 billion/day economic cost