Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-03 08:01:37 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (4 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	DIX 0.456 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.97 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +5.7B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 63% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +8.4% growth optimism · real yield 2.41% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.96 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.42 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.01 normal, SPY/Oil -0.51 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 16.0 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 141 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.73 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 18 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	USD/JPY 5d -3.9% yen strengthening, MOVE 83 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.84% moderate, NFCI -0.554 loose

Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, breadth, and inflation leaning bullish, but structural signals haven't signed on yet — rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 83/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.456; GEX positive at 5.7B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.0 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $744.39 | 50 SMA $744.72 | 200 SMA $699.97 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $743.47
QQQ: $684.61 | 50 SMA $715.36 | 200 SMA $644.61 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $670.95
IWM: $289.81 | 50 SMA $292.13 | 200 SMA $265.62 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $292.81
VIX: 15.99 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.745%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$744.39	40.07	44.9	$743.47	Bearish	0.38
QQQ	$684.61	33.71	60.9	$670.95	Neutral	0.69
IWM	$289.81	44.11	14.8	$292.81	Bearish	6.65

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.99	55.85	61.8	$10.51	Neutral	1.00
TNX	47.45	59.87	19.7	-	-	-
GLD	$370.58	50.12	25.7	$371.84	Neutral	1.22
DXY	99.80	29.35	38.7	-	-	-
SLV	$52.07	48.49	14.2	$40.46	Bearish	0.41

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.456
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.74B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.84% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.99%
2s10s Spread: 0.47% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 62.9%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 68.0%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.8%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Financials	89.6%	0/0
Energy	84.2%	0/0
Health Care	83.3%	0/0
Consumer Staples	64.7%	0/0
Industrials	59.7%	0/0
Real Estate	57.1%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	55.9%	0/0
Materials	54.2%	0/0
Communication Services	50.0%	0/0
Technology	49.2%	0/0
Utilities	16.7%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: ELEVATED
WTI Crude: $86.80 (5d: +5.1%)
Brent Crude: $90.12 | Spread: $3.32
RBOB Gasoline: $3.1700/gal
Heating Oil: $4.1900/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $60.62/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $59.55
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.06

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.96	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.422	elevated
SPY / TNX	-0.008	normal
SPY / Oil	-0.514	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 83.02
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.19 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 4,958,949.0
0DTE Put Volume: 4,828,008.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.97 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $731.1B
Gamma Call Wall: $749 | Put Wall: $730 (Spot: $744.39)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) · below 20,50d

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -17,196 contracts (Z +2.09, as of 2026-07-28)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.75%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.06 (Normal)
DXY: 99.80
Growth vs Value: 0.92
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.26% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.28%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.30%
Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6738.2B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $910.8B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.2B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,825B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,857B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,087B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,745B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,493 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.514 with energy in ELEVATED — crude shock propagating into equities.
[WARNING] SKEW at 141 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] USD/JPY 5d RoC at -3.9% — yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.456, GEX +5.7B, HY OAS 2.84%, breadth 63%.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 14 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: acm_term_premium_10y has printed the same value (0.84) for 5 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 77 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_max_pain has printed the same value (735.0) for 23 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_put_wall has printed the same value (740.0) for 21 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.

Seasonality

Current Month: July
Average Return: +2.54%
Median Return: +2.28%
Hit Rate: 80%
Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (↑8.4% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.49 (↑17.3% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.6% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.68 (↑1.2% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.77 (↓3.8% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.89 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.91 (↑0.2% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (22):

[1] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP is trimming previous gains against the US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-is-trimming-previous-gains-against-the-us-dollar-202608031200 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 12:00:29 GMT

[2] US Dollar: Labour data and hawkish risks in focus - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-labour-data-and-hawkish-risks-in-focus-deutsche-bank-202608031155 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 11:55:12 GMT

[3] Weekly forex forecast: EUR/USD, XAU/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, Bitcoin and more [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/weekly-forex-forecast-eur-usd-xau-usd-gbp-usd-usd-jpy-bitcoin-and-more-video-202608031152 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 11:52:01 GMT

[4] Can Oil, ISM and AMD keep the tech rebound alive? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/can-oil-ism-and-amd-keep-the-tech-rebound-alive-202608031150 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 11:50:03 GMT

[5] The Bitcoin futures yield collapse: Once over 20%, now less than Treasury notes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/the-bitcoin-futures-yield-collapse-once-over-20-now-less-than-treasury-notes-202608031149 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 11:49:34 GMT

[6] Moneta Markets Strengthens UAE Presence with CMA Category 5 Licence URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/moneta-markets-strengthens-uae-presence-with-cma-category-5-licence-202608031146 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 11:46:27 GMT

[7] Japanese Yen: Joint intervention supports yen outlook - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-joint-intervention-supports-yen-outlook-mufg-202608031141 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 11:41:35 GMT

[8] Australian Dollar comes under pressure as US Dollar regains ground URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-comes-under-pressure-as-us-dollar-regains-ground-202608031131 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 11:31:04 GMT

[9] Federal Reserve: Data driven rate path - HSBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/federal-reserve-data-driven-rate-path-hsbc-202608031126 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 11:26:42 GMT

[10] Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP extend decline amid renewed risk-averse sentiment URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-today-bitcoin-ethereum-xrp-extend-decline-amid-renewed-risk-averse-sentiment-202608031112 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 11:12:26 GMT

[11] WTI stays lower near $78.50 ahead of US-Iran peace talks 2.0 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-stays-lower-near-7850-ahead-of-us-iran-peace-talks-20-202608031109 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 11:09:45 GMT

[12] Warsh's Fed leaves markets 'not happy', Dollar's 'path of least resistance' is lower URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/warshs-fed-leaves-markets-not-happy-dollars-path-of-least-resistance-is-lower-202608031105 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 11:05:55 GMT

[13] AI investment offsets Iran war shock, September ECB hike a 'done deal' URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/ai-investment-offsets-iran-war-shock-september-ecb-hike-a-done-deal-202608031104 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 11:04:02 GMT

[14] BoE sees inflation peaking nearer 3%, 'stark divide' emerges despite 6-3 vote URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/boe-sees-inflation-peaking-nearer-3-stark-divide-emerges-despite-6-3-vote-202608031102 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 11:02:25 GMT

[15] Gold struggles to hold gains amid mixed US-Iran headlines, hawkish Fed URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-struggles-to-hold-gains-amid-mixed-us-iran-headlines-hawkish-fed-202608031058 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 10:58:17 GMT

[16] British Pound mid-year outlook: Where the Pound is headed as war, fiscal cracks and central banks collide URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/british-pound-mid-year-outlook-where-the-pound-is-headed-as-war-fiscal-cracks-and-central-banks-collide-202608031055 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 10:55:02 GMT

[17] Markets swing to upside URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/markets-swing-to-upside-202608031053 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 10:53:37 GMT

[18] Brent outlook: Oil price falls on fresh US-Iran peace deal optimism URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/brent-outlook-oil-price-falls-on-fresh-us-iran-peace-deal-optimism-202608031036 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 10:36:57 GMT

[19] Fed's Williams: Affirms confidence for inflation to return to 2% target URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/feds-williams-affirms-confidence-for-inflation-to-return-to-2-target-202608031027 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 10:27:00 GMT

[20] Shiba Inu Price Forecast: SHIB declines despite 83 million token burn as demand wanes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/shiba-inu-price-forecast-shib-declines-despite-83-million-token-burn-as-demand-wanes-202608031015 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 10:15:48 GMT

[21] Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC slides as ETF outflows return, Coldcard wallet attack raises selling fears URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-price-forecast-btc-slides-as-etf-outflows-return-coldcard-wallet-attack-raises-selling-fears-202608031015 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 10:15:01 GMT

[22] Orbs launches community governance vote to establish its DAO framework URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/orbs-launches-community-governance-vote-to-establish-its-dao-framework-202608031013 Published: Mon, 03 Aug 2026 10:13:14 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (4):

[1] Iran risks unrest, renewed attack without final US deal, Zarif warns Time: 2026-08-03T11:31:57.899Z

[2] Norway urges Iran to halt executions linked to January protests Time: 2026-08-03T11:06:00.180Z

[3] Economic crisis drives Iranians to sell hair, rent laptops Time: 2026-08-03T10:55:06.258Z

[4] Iranian foreign minister arrives in Iraq Time: 2026-08-03T10:29:12.616Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 156 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 8 of 60 normal daily — 14.1% of normal
Throughput: 14.1% of normal (1.4M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 455
Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 56.7x normal
Tanker Rates: WS240 (+380% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $8.2 billion/day economic cost