Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-31 08:01:27 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +1.7% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (5 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	DIX 0.453 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.10 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +4.4B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 65% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +6.6% growth optimism · real yield 2.41% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.96 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.41 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.14 normal, SPY/Oil -0.55 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 17.1 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 140 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.54 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 17 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	USD/JPY 5d -2.6% yen strengthening, MOVE 77 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.87% moderate, NFCI -0.554 loose

Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, breadth, and energy leaning bullish, but structural signals haven't signed on yet — rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 86/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.453; GEX positive at 4.4B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.1 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $742.25 | 50 SMA $744.66 | 200 SMA $699.52 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $738.98
QQQ: $687.72 | 50 SMA $715.81 | 200 SMA $644.14 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $673.42
IWM: $292.60 | 50 SMA $291.79 | 200 SMA $265.35 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $290.99
VIX: 17.09 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.663%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$742.25	30.74	36.5	$738.98	Neutral	1.24
QQQ	$687.72	21.82	52.1	$673.42	Neutral	0.84
IWM	$292.60	33.40	8.3	$290.99	Bearish	1.88

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	17.09	66.24	44.2	$10.51	Neutral	0.80
TNX	46.63	58.92	20.4	-	-	-
GLD	$376.49	43.79	24.3	$368.38	Bearish	0.24
DXY	100.02	37.03	39.7	-	-	-
SLV	$53.38	41.11	13.2	$40.00	Bearish	0.41

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.453
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.4B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.87% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 1.00%
2s10s Spread: 0.45% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 65.1%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.2%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.1%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.0%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Financials	89.6%	0/0
Health Care	85.2%	0/0
Consumer Staples	70.6%	0/0
Energy	68.4%	0/0
Real Estate	67.9%	0/0
Communication Services	60.0%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	59.3%	0/0
Materials	58.3%	0/0
Industrials	56.7%	0/0
Technology	52.3%	0/0
Utilities	40.0%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $83.96 (5d: -6.0%)
Brent Crude: $89.45 | Spread: $5.49
RBOB Gasoline: $3.1300/gal
Heating Oil: $4.1200/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.36/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $58.96
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.01

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.962	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.41	elevated
SPY / TNX	-0.136	normal
SPY / Oil	-0.548	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.09
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,907,096.0
0DTE Put Volume: 4,303,461.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.10 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $609.0B
Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $743 (Spot: $742.25)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) · below 20,50d

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -16,784 contracts (Z +2.24, as of 2026-07-21)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.66%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.99 (Normal)
DXY: 100.02
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.24% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.26%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.28%
Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6738.2B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $910.8B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.1B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,826B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,850B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,026B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,703B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,724 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.453, GEX +4.4B, HY OAS 2.87%, breadth 65%.
[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~58h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~34h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
[WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.
[INFO] SPY (742.55) reclaimed ZGL (738.98) — volatility dampening resumes.
[WARNING] SPY (743.49) dropped below ZGL (743.82) — expect amplified downside moves.
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B

Seasonality

Current Month: July
Average Return: +2.50%
Median Return: +2.28%
Hit Rate: 75%
Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (↑8.4% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.47 (↑17.4% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.6% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.61 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $7.05 (↑0.0% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (23):

[1] Japanese Yen: Policy credibility and intervention dynamics - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-policy-credibility-and-intervention-dynamics-bny-202607311157 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 11:57:30 GMT

[2] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD remains under pressure as bond yields, US Dollar rebound URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-remains-under-pressure-as-bond-yields-us-dollar-rebound-202607311149 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 11:49:27 GMT

[3] Gold declines as firmer US Dollar, hawkish Fed outlook weigh URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-declines-as-firmer-us-dollar-and-hawkish-fed-outlook-weigh-202607311148 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 11:48:49 GMT

[4] Brent: Conflict risks keep prices elevated - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-conflict-risks-keep-prices-elevated-commerzbank-202607311145 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 11:45:38 GMT

[5] Cryptocurrencies Price Prediction: Zcash, Bitcoin & Crypto - European Wrap 31 July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-zcash-bitcoin-crypto-european-wrap-31-july-202607311140 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 11:40:28 GMT

[6] Japanese Yen dips back to 160.00 against the US Dollar as post-BoJ gains fade URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-dips-back-to-16000-against-the-us-dollar-as-post-boj-gains-fade-202607311132 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 11:32:58 GMT

[7] Brazil Primary Budget Surplus climbed from previous -56.131B to -55.3B in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazil-primary-budget-surplus-climbed-from-previous-56131b-to-553b-in-june-202607311131 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 11:31:52 GMT

[8] Brazil Nominal Budget Balance below forecasts (-133.2B) in June: Actual (-166B) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazil-nominal-budget-balance-below-forecasts-1332b-in-june-actual-166b-202607311131 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 11:31:49 GMT

[9] India FX Reserves, USD rose from previous $676.24B to $682.35B in July 20 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-fx-reserves-usd-rose-from-previous-67624b-to-68235b-in-july-20-202607311130 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 11:30:10 GMT

[10] US Dollar Index: DXY seen returning to 96.00-100.00 range - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-dxy-seen-returning-to-9600-10000-range-bbh-202607311128 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 11:28:10 GMT

[11] TenTrade Appoints Wilfred Obasi as Regional Director Africa, Accelerating Local Expansion URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/tentrade-appoints-wilfred-obasi-as-regional-director-africa-accelerating-local-expansion-202607311127 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 11:27:48 GMT

[12] Australian Dollar holds firm despite weak Chinese data, fading RBA rate hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-holds-firm-despite-weak-chinese-data-fading-rba-rate-hike-bets-202607311121 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 11:21:08 GMT

[13] Canadian Dollar: Balanced growth supports CAD - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-balanced-growth-supports-cad-td-securities-202607311114 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 11:14:57 GMT

[14] Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP edge lower despite renewed ETF inflows URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-today-bitcoin-ethereum-xrp-edge-lower-despite-renewed-etf-inflows-202607311100 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 11:00:00 GMT

[15] Stocks rebound hard as semis surge 8.5%, MSFT adds $450B -- AI was never dead URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/stocks-rebound-hard-as-semis-surge-85-msft-adds-450b-ai-was-never-dead-202607311049 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 10:49:05 GMT

[16] Eurozone inflation rebounds, ECB may be forced to hike rates unless Iran peace deal URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eurozone-inflation-rebounds-ecb-may-be-forced-to-hike-rates-unless-iran-peace-deal-202607311047 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 10:47:31 GMT

[17] Asia asset volatility in focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/asia-asset-volatility-in-focus-202607311043 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 10:43:24 GMT

[18] Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Bulls hold the line URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-weekly-forecast-bulls-hold-the-line-202607311035 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 10:35:22 GMT

[19] Zcash Price Forecast: ZEC risks over 15% drawdown amid declining shielded supply URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/zcash-price-forecast-zec-risks-over-15-drawdown-amid-declining-shielded-supply-202607311032 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 10:32:29 GMT

[20] Experts agree: The US Dollar rally might have found serious headwinds URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/experts-agree-the-us-dollar-rally-might-have-found-serious-headwinds-202607311025 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 10:25:00 GMT

[21] The crypto market is on the defensive URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/the-crypto-market-is-on-the-defensive-202607311023 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 10:23:48 GMT

[22] US Dollar: Post-Fed losses extend as positioning unwinds - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-post-fed-losses-extend-as-positioning-unwinds-ing-202607311005 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 10:05:31 GMT

[23] Euro rebounds vs Yen as BoJ rate hold, Eurozone inflation support URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-rebounds-vs-yen-as-boj-rate-hold-eurozone-inflation-support-202607311002 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 10:02:54 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (7):

[1] Iran lawmaker threatens US power grid if Iran's is attacked Time: 2026-07-31T11:49:55.282Z

[2] Senior Iranian cleric says ceasefire is 'a deception' to let US attack again Time: 2026-07-31T11:33:53.713Z

[3] Video: Third day of protests outside US embassy in Copenhagen over Iran executions Time: 2026-07-31T11:22:20.076Z

[4] Kuwait says it shot down drones after Iranian attack Time: 2026-07-31T11:10:01.954Z

[5] Iran cleric says attacks should be met with multiple missile strikes Time: 2026-07-31T10:38:51.598Z

[6] Video: Iran buries executed protester in remote desert county Time: 2026-07-31T10:35:24.362Z

[7] Iran gambling network helped channel $4 billion through crypto exchange - Reuters Time: 2026-07-31T10:00:55.873Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 153 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily — 16.7% of normal
Throughput: 16.7% of normal (1.7M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 147
Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 53.3x normal
Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost