Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-31 08:31:46 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +1.9% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (5 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.453 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.10 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +4.4B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 65% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +5.3% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.41% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.96 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.41 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.14 normal, SPY/Oil -0.55 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 17.1 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 140 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 5.53 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 17 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d -2.0% stable, MOVE 77 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.87% moderate, NFCI -0.554 loose |
Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, breadth, and inflation leaning bullish, but structural signals haven't signed on yet β rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 84/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.453; GEX positive at 4.4B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.1 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: BX, FSLR, IEX
- Shorts: VLY, TSCO
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 14% (n=240) | 3d 36% (n=240) | 5d 32% (n=240)
- Screener Board Record: 105 closed (hit rate 52%) Β· 136 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $743.90 | 50 SMA $744.72 | 200 SMA $699.97 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $741.04
- QQQ: $690.11 | 50 SMA $715.36 | 200 SMA $644.61 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $677.9
- IWM: $293.56 | 50 SMA $292.13 | 200 SMA $265.62 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $292.81
- VIX: 17.11 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.688%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $743.90 | 40.07 | 44.9 | $741.04 | Neutral | 1.05 |
| QQQ | $690.11 | 33.71 | 60.9 | $677.90 | Neutral | 1.01 |
| IWM | $293.56 | 44.11 | 14.8 | $292.81 | Bearish | 2.18 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.11 | 55.85 | 61.8 | $10.51 | Neutral | 0.86 |
| TNX | 46.88 β² | 59.87 | 19.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $371.41 | 50.12 | 25.7 | $368.41 | Bearish | 0.27 |
| DXY | 100.34 | 37.37 | 42.2 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $52.19 | 48.49 | 14.2 | $40.00 | Bearish | 0.36 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.453
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.4B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.87% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.45% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 65.1%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.2%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.1%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 89.6% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 85.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 70.6% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 68.4% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 67.9% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 60.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 59.3% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 58.3% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 56.7% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 52.3% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 40.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $85.22 (5d: +3.2%)
- Brent Crude: $90.36 | Spread: $5.14
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1200/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.1900/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $60.80/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $58.96
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.01
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.962 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.41 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.136 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.548 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.09
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.10 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $609.0B
- Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $743 (Spot: $743.90)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
- Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -16,784 contracts (Z +2.24, as of 2026-07-21)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.69%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.01 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.34
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.24% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.26%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.28%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6738.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $910.8B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.1B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,826B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,850B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,026B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,703B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,671 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.548 with energy in ELEVATED β crude shock propagating into equities.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.453, GEX +4.4B, HY OAS 2.87%, breadth 65%.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~58h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.
- [INFO] SPY (742.55) reclaimed ZGL (738.98) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] SPY (743.49) dropped below ZGL (743.82) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.50%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 75%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (β8.4% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.47 (β17.4% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (β15.6% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.61 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $7.05 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.3% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (10):
[1] Gold: Reduced Fed hike bets support prices - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-reduced-fed-hike-bets-support-prices-commerzbank-202607311230 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 12:30:50 GMT
[2] United States Employment Cost Index above forecasts (0.8%) in 2Q: Actual (0.9%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-employment-cost-index-above-forecasts-08-in-2q-actual-09-202607311230 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 12:30:07 GMT
[3] Canada Gross Domestic Product (MoM) above forecasts (0.2%) in May: Actual (0.3%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-gross-domestic-product-mom-above-forecasts-02-in-may-actual-03-202607311230 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 12:30:01 GMT
[4] Ripple Price Forecast: XRP trades below $1.10 amid persistent technical weakness URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ripple-price-forecast-xrp-trades-below-110-amid-persistent-technical-weakness-202607311230 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 12:30:00 GMT
[5] US sanctions Iran-linked Bitcoin insurance scheme for Strait of Hormuz ships URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/us-sanctions-iran-linked-bitcoin-insurance-scheme-for-strait-of-hormuz-ships-202607311229 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 12:29:52 GMT
[6] The Yen was boosted by intervention URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-yen-was-boosted-by-intervention-202607311222 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 12:22:19 GMT
[7] British Pound: Softer BoE stance seen weighing on Sterling - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-softer-boe-stance-seen-weighing-on-sterling-bbh-202607311220 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 12:20:16 GMT
[8] Greenback consolidates after being rocked by the US Fed and Japan's Ministry of Finance URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/greenback-consolidates-after-being-rocked-by-the-us-fed-and-japans-ministry-of-finance-202607311213 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 12:13:15 GMT
[9] Euro: ECB September hike still base case - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-ecb-september-hike-still-base-case-td-securities-202607311209 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 12:09:01 GMT
[10] South Africa Trade Balance (in Rands) rose from previous -1.79B to 17.75B in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-africa-trade-balance-in-rands-rose-from-previous-179b-to-1775b-in-june-202607311201 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 12:01:31 GMT
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 153 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily β 16.7% of normal
- Throughput: 16.7% of normal (1.7M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 147
- Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 53.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost