Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-31 06:01:08 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +1.7% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (5 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	DIX 0.453 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.10 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +4.4B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 65% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +6.6% growth optimism · real yield 2.41% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.96 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.41 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.14 normal, SPY/Oil -0.55 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 17.1 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 140 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.54 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 17 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	USD/JPY 5d -2.6% yen strengthening, MOVE 77 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.87% moderate, NFCI -0.554 loose

Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, breadth, and energy leaning bullish, but structural signals haven't signed on yet — rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 86/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.453; GEX positive at 4.4B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.1 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $742.25 | 50 SMA $744.66 | 200 SMA $699.52 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $738.98
QQQ: $687.72 | 50 SMA $715.81 | 200 SMA $644.14 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $673.42
IWM: $292.60 | 50 SMA $291.79 | 200 SMA $265.35 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $290.99
VIX: 17.09 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.663%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$742.25	30.74	36.5	$738.98	Neutral	1.24
QQQ	$687.72	21.82	52.1	$673.42	Neutral	0.84
IWM	$292.60	33.40	8.3	$290.99	Bearish	1.88

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	17.09	66.24	44.2	$10.51	Neutral	0.80
TNX	46.63	58.92	20.4	-	-	-
GLD	$376.49	43.79	24.3	$368.38	Bearish	0.24
DXY	100.02	37.03	39.7	-	-	-
SLV	$53.38	41.11	13.2	$40.00	Bearish	0.41

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.453
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.4B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.87% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 1.00%
2s10s Spread: 0.45% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 65.1%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.2%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.1%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.0%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Financials	89.6%	0/0
Health Care	85.2%	0/0
Consumer Staples	70.6%	0/0
Energy	68.4%	0/0
Real Estate	67.9%	0/0
Communication Services	60.0%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	59.3%	0/0
Materials	58.3%	0/0
Industrials	56.7%	0/0
Technology	52.3%	0/0
Utilities	40.0%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $83.96 (5d: -6.0%)
Brent Crude: $89.45 | Spread: $5.49
RBOB Gasoline: $3.1300/gal
Heating Oil: $4.1200/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.36/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $58.96
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.01

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.962	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.41	elevated
SPY / TNX	-0.136	normal
SPY / Oil	-0.548	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.09
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,907,096.0
0DTE Put Volume: 4,303,461.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.10 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $609.0B
Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $743 (Spot: $742.25)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) · below 20,50d

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -16,784 contracts (Z +2.24, as of 2026-07-21)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.66%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.99 (Normal)
DXY: 100.02
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.24% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.26%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.28%
Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6738.2B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $910.8B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.1B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,826B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,850B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,026B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,703B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,618 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~58h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~34h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~34h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.453, GEX +4.4B, HY OAS 2.87%, breadth 65%.
[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
[WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.
[INFO] Screener: EOG — new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 67/100, regime range_noise, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 52% (n=4201)). Worth a look.
[INFO] SPY (742.55) reclaimed ZGL (738.98) — volatility dampening resumes.

Seasonality

Current Month: July
Average Return: +2.50%
Median Return: +2.28%
Hit Rate: 75%
Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (↑8.4% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.47 (↑17.4% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.6% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.61 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $7.05 (↑0.0% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (29):

[1] Japanese Yen: Wide range trading outlook - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-wide-range-trading-outlook-td-securities-202607310954 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 09:54:49 GMT

[2] USD/JPY after volatility: Multiple events in one day URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/usd-jpy-after-volatility-multiple-events-in-one-day-202607310949 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 09:49:00 GMT

[3] Euro hits session lows against the British Pound following Eurozone Inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-hits-session-lows-against-the-british-pound-following-eurozone-inflation-data-202607310939 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 09:39:18 GMT

[4] British Pound underperforms as traders reconsider BoE interest rate hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-underperforms-as-traders-reconsider-boe-interest-rate-hike-bets-202607310936 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 09:36:52 GMT

[5] Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202607310931 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 09:31:32 GMT

[6] China: Growth drift and export reliance - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-growth-drift-and-export-reliance-rabobank-202607310931 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 09:31:20 GMT

[7] ECB's Kocher: Central bank policies will remain data-dependent URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecbs-kocher-central-bank-policies-will-remain-data-dependent-202607310927 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 09:27:52 GMT

[8] Week ahead - US payrolls report and AI earnings to keep investors on edge URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/week-ahead-us-payrolls-report-and-ai-earnings-to-keep-investors-on-edge-202607310916 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 09:16:47 GMT

[9] British Pound: BoE communication keeps restrictive stance - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-boe-communication-keeps-restrictive-stance-mufg-202607310909 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 09:09:30 GMT

[10] Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) meets expectations (2.9%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-yoy-meets-expectations-29-in-july-202607310903 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 09:03:12 GMT

[11] Eurozone flash headline HICP rises at a stronger pace of 2.9% YoY, as expected URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-flash-headline-hicp-rises-strongly-by-32-yoy-vs-29-estimates-202607310903 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 09:03:08 GMT

[12] Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) increased to 0.2% in July from previous -0.1% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-mom-increased-to-02-in-july-from-previous-01-202607310903 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 09:03:00 GMT

[13] Gold - Intraday sell trade idea [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-intraday-sell-trade-idea-video-202607310901 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 09:01:44 GMT

[14] Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) climbed from previous -0.1% to 2.8% in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-mom-climbed-from-previous-01-to-28-in-july-202607310901 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 09:01:06 GMT

[15] Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) below expectations (0.3%) in July: Actual (0.2%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-consumer-price-index-mom-below-expectations-03-in-july-actual-02-202607310900 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 09:00:52 GMT

[16] Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) registered at 3.2% above expectations (2.9%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-yoy-registered-at-32-above-expectations-29-in-july-202607310900 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 09:00:51 GMT

[17] Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) in line with forecasts (-1%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-consumer-price-index-eu-norm-mom-in-line-with-forecasts-1-in-july-202607310900 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 09:00:51 GMT

[18] Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) above forecasts (2.8%) in July: Actual (2.9%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-consumer-price-index-eu-norm-yoy-above-forecasts-28-in-july-actual-29-202607310900 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 09:00:49 GMT

[19] Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets expectations (2.8%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-consumer-price-index-yoy-meets-expectations-28-in-july-202607310900 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 09:00:47 GMT

[20] Greece Retail Sales (YoY) increased to 6.8% in May from previous -0.1% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/greece-retail-sales-yoy-increased-to-68-in-may-from-previous-01-202607310900 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 09:00:39 GMT

[21] Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) below expectations (2.9%) in July: Actual (2.8%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-yoy-below-expectations-29-in-july-actual-28-202607310900 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 09:00:34 GMT

[22] Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) above expectations (2.4%) in July: Actual (2.5%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-core-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-yoy-above-expectations-24-in-july-actual-25-202607310900 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 09:00:24 GMT

[23] Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0% (July) vs previous 0.2% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-core-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-mom-0-july-vs-previous-02-202607310900 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 09:00:15 GMT

[24] Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) in line with expectations (2.9%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-yoy-in-line-with-expectations-29-in-july-202607310900 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 09:00:05 GMT

[25] Gold: Central bank buying offsets ETF outflows - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-central-bank-buying-offsets-etf-outflows-ing-202607310855 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 08:55:24 GMT

[26] British Pound: Limited support from BoE policy - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-limited-support-from-boe-policy-commerzbank-202607310843 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 08:43:01 GMT

[27] WTI Oil drifts closer to $80.00 amid a mild increase in traffic through Hormuz URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-oil-drifts-closer-to-8000-amid-a-mild-increase-in-traffic-through-hormuz-202607310841 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 08:41:09 GMT

[28] Federal Reserve: Prolonged pause with hike risks - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/federal-reserve-prolonged-pause-with-hike-risks-uob-202607310830 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 08:30:46 GMT

[29] Portugal Consumer Price Index (MoM): -0.5% (July) vs previous 0.1% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/portugal-consumer-price-index-mom-05-july-vs-previous-01-202607310830 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 08:30:15 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (5):

[1] US, Israel discussed possible land blockade of Iran - Telegraph Time: 2026-07-31T09:43:43.395Z

[2] Iranian police officer killed in armed clash in Khuzestan Time: 2026-07-31T09:31:51.808Z

[BREAKING] [3] IRGC says it struck two tankers attempting to transit Strait of Hormuz Time: 2026-07-31T09:23:11.825Z

[4] Video: Egypt weighs response after gas vessel attack Time: 2026-07-31T09:20:41.931Z

[5] Tehran prosecutor takes legal action against opponents of executions Time: 2026-07-31T08:23:36.214Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 153 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily — 11.4% of normal
Throughput: 11.4% of normal (1.2M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 250
Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 58.3x normal
Tanker Rates: WS285 (+470% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.8 billion/day economic cost