Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-31 04:01:04 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +1.7% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (5 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	DIX 0.453 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.10 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +4.4B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 65% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +6.6% growth optimism · real yield 2.41% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.96 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.41 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.14 normal, SPY/Oil -0.55 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 17.1 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 140 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.54 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 17 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	USD/JPY 5d -2.6% yen strengthening, MOVE 77 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.87% moderate, NFCI -0.554 loose

Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, breadth, and energy leaning bullish, but structural signals haven't signed on yet — rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 86/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.453; GEX positive at 4.4B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.1 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $742.25 | 50 SMA $744.66 | 200 SMA $699.52 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $738.98
QQQ: $687.72 | 50 SMA $715.81 | 200 SMA $644.14 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $673.42
IWM: $292.60 | 50 SMA $291.79 | 200 SMA $265.35 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $290.99
VIX: 17.09 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.663%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$742.25	30.74	36.5	$738.98	Neutral	1.24
QQQ	$687.72	21.82	52.1	$673.42	Neutral	0.84
IWM	$292.60	33.40	8.3	$290.99	Bearish	1.88

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	17.09	66.24	44.2	$10.51	Neutral	0.80
TNX	46.63	58.92	20.4	-	-	-
GLD	$376.49	43.79	24.3	$368.38	Bearish	0.24
DXY	100.02	37.03	39.7	-	-	-
SLV	$53.38	41.11	13.2	$40.00	Bearish	0.41

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.453
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.4B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.87% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 1.00%
2s10s Spread: 0.45% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 65.1%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.2%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.1%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.0%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Financials	89.6%	0/0
Health Care	85.2%	0/0
Consumer Staples	70.6%	0/0
Energy	68.4%	0/0
Real Estate	67.9%	0/0
Communication Services	60.0%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	59.3%	0/0
Materials	58.3%	0/0
Industrials	56.7%	0/0
Technology	52.3%	0/0
Utilities	40.0%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $83.96 (5d: -6.0%)
Brent Crude: $89.45 | Spread: $5.49
RBOB Gasoline: $3.1300/gal
Heating Oil: $4.1200/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.36/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $58.96
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.01

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.962	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.41	elevated
SPY / TNX	-0.136	normal
SPY / Oil	-0.548	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.09
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,907,096.0
0DTE Put Volume: 4,303,461.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.10 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $609.0B
Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $743 (Spot: $742.25)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) · below 20,50d

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -16,784 contracts (Z +2.24, as of 2026-07-21)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.66%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.99 (Normal)
DXY: 100.02
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.24% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.26%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.28%
Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6738.2B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $910.8B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.1B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,826B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,850B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,026B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,703B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,850 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.453, GEX +4.4B, HY OAS 2.87%, breadth 65%.
[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
[WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.
[INFO] Screener: EOG — new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 67/100, regime range_noise, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 52% (n=4201)). Worth a look.
[INFO] Screener: MCO — new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 64/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 52% (n=4201)). Worth a look.
[INFO] SPY (742.55) reclaimed ZGL (738.98) — volatility dampening resumes.
[WARNING] SPY (743.49) dropped below ZGL (743.82) — expect amplified downside moves.
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B

Seasonality

Current Month: July
Average Return: +2.50%
Median Return: +2.28%
Hit Rate: 75%
Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (↑8.4% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.47 (↑17.4% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.6% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.61 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $7.05 (↑0.0% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (27):

[1] Fed holds rates steady but markets question Warsh's commitment to fighting inflation URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/fed-holds-rates-steady-but-markets-question-warshs-commitment-to-fighting-inflation-202607310759 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 07:59:55 GMT

[2] Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. above expectations (6.3%) in June: Actual (6.4%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-unemployment-rate-sa-above-expectations-63-in-june-actual-64-202607310755 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 07:55:01 GMT

[3] Germany Unemployment Change came in at 6K, above forecasts (5K) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-unemployment-change-came-in-at-6k-above-forecasts-5k-in-june-202607310755 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 07:55:00 GMT

[4] STARTRADER expands AI offering with 31 New US Share & ETF CFDs in Semiconductors, Optical Networking & Nuclear URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/startrader-expands-ai-offering-with-31-new-us-share-etf-cfds-in-semiconductors-optical-networking-nuclear-202607310754 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 07:54:00 GMT

[5] NZD/USD Price Forecast: Previous highs around 0.5860 are holding bears for now URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-previous-highs-around-05860-are-holding-bears-for-now-202607310753 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 07:53:49 GMT

[6] Oil: Middle distillate tightness supports prices - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-middle-distillate-tightness-supports-prices-ing-202607310753 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 07:53:22 GMT

[7] Dow Jones futures rise as tech rally, AI optimism drive market rebound URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-rise-as-tech-rally-ai-optimism-drive-market-rebound-202607310744 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 07:44:03 GMT

[8] SAP Fioneer Launches Cloud Accounting Subledger to Simplify Multi-GAAP Accounting for Financial Institutions URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/sap-fioneer-launches-cloud-accounting-subledger-to-simplify-multi-gaap-accounting-for-financial-institutions-202607310739 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 07:39:35 GMT

[9] Euro: Supported by growth surprise - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-supported-by-growth-surprise-commerzbank-202607310738 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 07:38:41 GMT

[10] Japanese Yen mid-year outlook: Why BoJ rate hikes aren't saving the Yen -- and what actually would URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/japanese-yen-mid-year-outlook-why-boj-rate-hikes-arent-saving-the-yen-and-what-actually-would-202607310737 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 07:37:27 GMT

[11] Huge, unexpected moves in the Yen and stock markets [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/huge-unexpected-moves-in-the-yen-and-stock-markets-video-202607310732 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 07:32:47 GMT

[12] Bank of England: Dovish hold shapes Pound outlook - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/bank-of-england-dovish-hold-shapes-pound-outlook-uob-202607310728 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 07:28:53 GMT

[13] New EUR/USD uptrend? Dollar double top, Gold triangle pattern and crypto at a crossroads [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/new-eur-usd-uptrend-dollar-double-top-gold-triangle-pattern-and-crypto-at-a-crossroads-video-202607310728 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 07:28:40 GMT

[14] USD/JPY Price Forecast: Likely extend decline below 158.00 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-likely-extend-decline-below-15800-202607310725 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 07:25:43 GMT

[15] Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH extends consolidation as bulls await a catalyst URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-price-forecast-eth-extends-consolidation-as-bulls-await-a-catalyst-202607310725 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 07:25:22 GMT

[16] Solana Price Forecast: SOL nears triangle pattern breakout amid firm retail support URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/solana-price-forecast-sol-nears-triangle-pattern-breakout-amid-firm-retail-support-202607310723 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 07:23:21 GMT

[17] Indian Rupee: Flows recovering as Dollar strength caps gains - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-flows-recovering-as-dollar-strength-caps-gains-dbs-202607310718 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 07:18:31 GMT

[18] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD falls to near $58.00 on hawkish Fed sentiment URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-falls-to-near-5800-on-hawkish-fed-sentiment-202607310717 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 07:17:50 GMT

[19] Euro holds gains above 1.1500 awaiting of Eurozone inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-holds-gains-above-11500-awaiting-of-eurozone-inflation-data-202607310703 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 07:03:00 GMT

[20] Turkey Trade Balance came in at -10.37B, above forecasts (-10.4B) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkey-trade-balance-came-in-at-1037b-above-forecasts-104b-in-june-202607310701 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 07:01:02 GMT

[21] Equities: Tech rebound spreads across global markets - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-tech-rebound-spreads-across-global-markets-deutsche-bank-202607310700 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 07:00:13 GMT

[22] When equities celebrate while bonds warn URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/when-equities-celebrate-while-bonds-warn-202607310657 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 06:57:07 GMT

[23] Australian Dollar gathers strength above 0.7000 amid softer US GDP data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-gathers-strength-above-07000-amid-softer-us-gdp-data-202607310654 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 06:54:38 GMT

[24] US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Exposes to 99.00 on Double Top breakdown URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-price-forecast-exposes-to-9900-on-double-top-breakdown-202607310654 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 06:54:16 GMT

[25] Euro: Upside risks after sharp Dollar shift - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-upside-risks-after-sharp-dollar-shift-ing-202607310646 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 06:46:35 GMT

[26] France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM) above expectations (0.3%) in July: Actual (0.6%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-consumer-price-index-eu-norm-mom-above-expectations-03-in-july-actual-06-202607310646 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 06:46:26 GMT

[27] France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY) above forecasts (2.1%) in July: Actual (2.4%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-consumer-price-index-eu-norm-yoy-above-forecasts-21-in-july-actual-24-202607310646 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 06:46:17 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (4):

[1] Drone targets camp of Iranian Kurdish opposition group near Erbil Time: 2026-07-31T07:54:55.240Z

[2] China says no Chinese citizens harmed in Iran strike on Kuwait Time: 2026-07-31T07:25:34.936Z

[3] UK charges man accused of spying on RAF base for Iran's IRGC Time: 2026-07-31T07:21:50.713Z

[4] Iranian judiciary outlet says bodies of five IRGC members returned from Iraq Time: 2026-07-31T05:58:51.984Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 153 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily — 11.4% of normal
Throughput: 11.1% of normal (1.1M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 350
Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 50.0x normal
Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost