Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-31 02:01:21 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +1.7% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (5 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	DIX 0.453 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.10 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +4.4B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 65% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +6.6% growth optimism · real yield 2.41% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.96 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.41 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.14 normal, SPY/Oil -0.55 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 17.1 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 140 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.54 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 17 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	USD/JPY 5d -2.6% yen strengthening, MOVE 77 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.87% moderate, NFCI -0.554 loose

Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, breadth, and energy leaning bullish, but structural signals haven't signed on yet — rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 86/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.453; GEX positive at 4.4B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.1 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $742.25 | 50 SMA $744.66 | 200 SMA $699.52 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $738.98
QQQ: $687.72 | 50 SMA $715.81 | 200 SMA $644.14 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $673.42
IWM: $292.60 | 50 SMA $291.79 | 200 SMA $265.35 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $290.99
VIX: 17.09 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.663%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$742.25	30.74	36.5	$738.98	Neutral	1.24
QQQ	$687.72	21.82	52.1	$673.42	Neutral	0.84
IWM	$292.60	33.40	8.3	$290.99	Bearish	1.88

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	17.09	66.24	44.2	$10.51	Neutral	0.80
TNX	46.63	58.92	20.4	-	-	-
GLD	$376.49	43.79	24.3	$368.38	Bearish	0.24
DXY	100.02	37.03	39.7	-	-	-
SLV	$53.38	41.11	13.2	$40.00	Bearish	0.41

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.453
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.4B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.87% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 1.00%
2s10s Spread: 0.45% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 65.1%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.2%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.1%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.0%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Financials	89.6%	0/0
Health Care	85.2%	0/0
Consumer Staples	70.6%	0/0
Energy	68.4%	0/0
Real Estate	67.9%	0/0
Communication Services	60.0%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	59.3%	0/0
Materials	58.3%	0/0
Industrials	56.7%	0/0
Technology	52.3%	0/0
Utilities	40.0%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $83.96 (5d: -6.0%)
Brent Crude: $89.45 | Spread: $5.49
RBOB Gasoline: $3.1300/gal
Heating Oil: $4.1200/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.36/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $58.96
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.01

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.962	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.41	elevated
SPY / TNX	-0.136	normal
SPY / Oil	-0.548	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.09
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,907,096.0
0DTE Put Volume: 4,303,461.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.10 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $609.0B
Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $743 (Spot: $742.25)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) · below 20,50d

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -16,784 contracts (Z +2.24, as of 2026-07-21)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.66%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.99 (Normal)
DXY: 100.02
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.24% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.26%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.28%
Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6738.2B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $910.8B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.1B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,826B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,850B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,026B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,703B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,284 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.453, GEX +4.4B, HY OAS 2.87%, breadth 65%.
[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
[WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.
[INFO] Screener: EOG — new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 67/100, regime range_noise, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 52% (n=4201)). Worth a look.
[INFO] Screener: MCO — new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 64/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 52% (n=4201)). Worth a look.
[INFO] Screener: CROX — new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 71/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 49% (n=2388)). Worth a look.
[INFO] Screener: KMI — confluence of 3 archetypes (conviction 65/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pair_divergence hit-rate 44% (n=183)).
[INFO] SPY (742.55) reclaimed ZGL (738.98) — volatility dampening resumes.

Seasonality

Current Month: July
Average Return: +2.50%
Median Return: +2.28%
Hit Rate: 75%
Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (↑8.4% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.47 (↑17.4% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.6% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.61 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $7.05 (↑0.0% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (29):

[1] United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY): 1.8% (July) vs previous 2.2% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-nationwide-housing-prices-nsa-yoy-18-july-vs-previous-22-202607310600 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 06:00:07 GMT

[2] United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices s.a (MoM) up to 0.1% in July from previous 0% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-nationwide-housing-prices-sa-mom-up-to-01-in-july-from-previous-0-202607310600 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 06:00:07 GMT

[3] Norway Credit Indicator declined to 4.4% in June from previous 4.5% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/norway-credit-indicator-declined-to-44-in-june-from-previous-45-202607310600 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 06:00:05 GMT

[4] Norway Registered Unemployment n.s.a meets forecasts (2.1%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/norway-registered-unemployment-nsa-meets-forecasts-21-in-july-202607310600 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 06:00:04 GMT

[5] WTI tests physical demand as growth expectations lose momentum URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/wti-tests-physical-demand-as-growth-expectations-lose-momentum-202607310552 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 05:52:27 GMT

[6] GBP/USD Price Forecast: Weakens below 1.3450 while technical uptrend stays intact URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-weakens-below-13450-while-technical-uptrend-stays-intact-202607310552 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 05:52:10 GMT

[7] Indian Rupee hits fresh two-week high against US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-hits-fresh-two-week-high-against-us-dollar-202607310543 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 05:43:47 GMT

[8] US hedge fund bailout flows through to massive tech recovery in KR URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/us-hedge-fund-bailout-flows-through-to-massive-tech-recovery-in-kr-202607310537 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 05:37:49 GMT

[9] WTI falls to near $80.50 on profit-taking, increased traffic through Strait of Hormuz URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-falls-to-near-8050-on-profit-taking-increased-traffic-through-strait-of-hormuz-202607310516 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 05:16:08 GMT

[10] Morning briefing: Crude prices have fallen on hopes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/morning-briefing-crude-prices-have-fallen-on-hopes-202607310513 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 05:13:04 GMT

[11] Asian stocks surge, led by KOSPI on AI optimism, Wall Street gains URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/asian-stocks-surge-led-by-kospi-on-ai-optimism-wall-street-gains-202607310508 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 05:08:44 GMT

[12] Crypto's next altseason may have fewer winners: Wintermute URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptos-next-altseason-may-have-fewer-winners-wintermute-202607310508 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 05:08:19 GMT

[13] Japan Annualized Housing Starts: 0.786M (June) vs 0.757M URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-annualized-housing-starts-0786m-june-vs-0757m-202607310505 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 05:05:27 GMT

[14] Saudi Arabia Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/saudi-arabia-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202607310505 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 05:05:22 GMT

[15] Canadian Dollar retreats on sliding oil prices as USD recovers on Fed bets, Mideast risks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-retreats-on-sliding-oil-prices-as-usd-recovers-on-fed-bets-mideast-risks-202607310503 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 05:03:36 GMT

[16] Japan Construction Orders (YoY) rose from previous -6.7% to 2.3% in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-construction-orders-yoy-rose-from-previous-67-to-23-in-june-202607310501 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 05:01:59 GMT

[17] Japan Housing Starts (YoY) above expectations (12.8%) in June: Actual (18.6%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-housing-starts-yoy-above-expectations-128-in-june-actual-186-202607310501 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 05:01:59 GMT

[18] Philippines Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/philippines-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202607310501 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 05:01:36 GMT

[19] United Arab Emirates Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-arab-emirates-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202607310455 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 04:55:20 GMT

[20] Pakistan Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pakistan-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202607310446 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 04:46:13 GMT

[21] Cryptocurrencies Price Prediction: Bitcoin, Uniswap & Aave - Asian Wrap 31 July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-bitcoin-uniswap-aave-asian-wrap-31-july-202607310442 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 04:42:28 GMT

[22] Crypto Market Overview: Bitcoin stalls below $65,000 - UNI, PUMP lead gains URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-market-overview-bitcoin-stalls-below-65-000-uni-pump-lead-gains-202607310441 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 04:41:53 GMT

[23] Rare Japan-South Korea joint intervention lifts Yen and Won -- Reuters URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/rare-japan-south-korea-joint-intervention-lifts-yen-and-won-reuters-202607310441 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 04:41:35 GMT

[24] India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202607310435 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 04:35:21 GMT

[25] Quantum Solutions sells $1.9 million ETH as DATs wind down continues URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/quantum-solutions-sells-19-million-eth-as-dats-wind-down-continues-202607310433 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 04:33:28 GMT

[26] Malaysia Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/malaysia-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202607310430 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 04:30:57 GMT

[27] Indonesian Rupiah loses ground following China PMI release URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesian-rupiah-loses-ground-following-china-pmi-release-202607310424 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 04:24:01 GMT

[28] EUR/USD Price Forecast: Weakens to near 1.1500 as 100-day SMA caps upside URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-weakens-to-near-11500-as-100-day-sma-caps-upside-202607310416 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 04:16:55 GMT

[29] Top 3 Price Prediction: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple - BTC eyes 50-day EMA breakout, ETH consolidates, XRP steadies URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/top-3-price-prediction-bitcoin-ethereum-ripple-btc-eyes-50-day-ema-breakout-eth-consolidates-xrp-steadies-202607310406 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 04:06:50 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (2):

[1] Oil shuttle service resumes as producers bypass Strait of Hormuz disruptions - Bloomberg Time: 2026-07-31T05:14:08.553Z

[2] Iranian army says it targeted US facilities at Kuwait's Ahmad al-Jaber Air Base Time: 2026-07-31T04:13:27.924Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 153 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 8 of 60 normal daily — 16.7% of normal
Throughput: 16.0% of normal (1.6M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 0
Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 58.3x normal
Tanker Rates: WS386 (+672% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost