Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-31 00:01:11 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +1.7% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (5 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	DIX 0.453 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.10 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +4.4B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 65% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +6.6% growth optimism · real yield 2.41% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.96 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.41 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.15 normal, SPY/Oil -0.55 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 17.1 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 140 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.54 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 17 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	USD/JPY 5d -2.6% yen strengthening, MOVE 77 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.87% moderate, NFCI -0.554 loose

Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, breadth, and energy leaning bullish, but structural signals haven't signed on yet — rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 86/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.453; GEX positive at 4.4B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.1 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $742.25 | 50 SMA $744.66 | 200 SMA $699.52 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $738.98
QQQ: $687.72 | 50 SMA $715.81 | 200 SMA $644.14 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $673.42
IWM: $292.60 | 50 SMA $291.79 | 200 SMA $265.35 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $290.99
VIX: 17.09 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.663%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$742.25	30.74	36.5	$738.98	Neutral	1.24
QQQ	$687.72	21.82	52.1	$673.42	Neutral	0.84
IWM	$292.60	33.40	8.3	$290.99	Bearish	1.88

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	17.09	66.24	44.2	$10.51	Neutral	0.80
TNX	46.63	58.92	20.4	-	-	-
GLD	$376.49	43.79	24.3	$368.38	Bearish	0.24
DXY	100.02	37.03	39.7	-	-	-
SLV	$53.38	41.11	13.2	$40.00	Bearish	0.41

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.453
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.4B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.87% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 1.00%
2s10s Spread: 0.45% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 65.1%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.2%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.1%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.0%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Financials	89.6%	0/0
Health Care	85.2%	0/0
Consumer Staples	70.6%	0/0
Energy	68.4%	0/0
Real Estate	67.9%	0/0
Communication Services	60.0%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	59.3%	0/0
Materials	58.3%	0/0
Industrials	56.7%	0/0
Technology	52.3%	0/0
Utilities	40.0%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $83.96 (5d: -6.0%)
Brent Crude: $89.45 | Spread: $5.49
RBOB Gasoline: $3.1300/gal
Heating Oil: $4.1200/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.36/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $58.96
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.01

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.961	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.409	elevated
SPY / TNX	-0.146	normal
SPY / Oil	-0.55	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.09
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,907,096.0
0DTE Put Volume: 4,303,461.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.10 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $609.0B
Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $743 (Spot: $742.25)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) · below 20,50d

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -16,784 contracts (Z +2.24, as of 2026-07-21)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.66%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.99 (Normal)
DXY: 100.02
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.24% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.26%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.28%
Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6738.2B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $910.8B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.1B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,826B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,850B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,026B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,703B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,278 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.453, GEX +4.4B, HY OAS 2.87%, breadth 65%.
[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.
[INFO] Screener: EOG — new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 67/100, regime range_noise, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 52% (n=4201)). Worth a look.
[INFO] Screener: MCO — new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 64/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 52% (n=4201)). Worth a look.
[INFO] Screener: CROX — new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 71/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 49% (n=2388)). Worth a look.
[INFO] Screener: GOOGL — new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 67/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated revision_collapse hit-rate 39% (n=80)). Worth a look.
[INFO] Screener: KMI — confluence of 3 archetypes (conviction 65/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pair_divergence hit-rate 44% (n=183)).

Seasonality

Current Month: July
Average Return: +2.50%
Median Return: +2.28%
Hit Rate: 75%
Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (↑8.4% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.47 (↑17.4% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.6% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.61 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $7.05 (↑0.0% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (12):

[1] Gold drifts lower as USD recovers amid Fed hike bets and geopolitical tensions URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-drifts-lower-as-usd-recovers-amid-fed-hike-bets-and-geopolitical-tensions-202607310355 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 03:55:06 GMT

[2] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD declines to near $58.40 as US Dollar regains ground URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-declines-to-near-5840-as-us-dollar-regains-ground-202607310342 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 03:42:05 GMT

[3] Strategy, Coinbase post weak Q2 earnings amid prediction market growth for the exchange URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/strategy-coinbase-post-weak-q2-earnings-amid-prediction-market-growth-for-the-exchange-202607310338 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 03:38:33 GMT

[4] Japanese Yen weakens as Bank of Japan holds rates at 1% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-weakens-as-bank-of-japan-holds-rates-at-1-202607310337 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 03:37:25 GMT

[5] Pound Sterling Price News & Forecast: GBP/USD loses ground after three days of gains URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-forecast-gbp-usd-loses-ground-after-three-days-of-gains-202607310329 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 03:29:14 GMT

[6] EUR/JPY rallies further above 185.00 against Japanese Yen after BoJ's policy decision URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-rallies-further-above-18500-against-japanese-yen-after-bojs-policy-decision-202607310321 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 03:21:01 GMT

[7] Top Altcoins Price Forecast: Uniswap lead gains, Cardano and NEAR risk rejection at EMAs resistance URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/top-altcoins-price-forecast-uniswap-lead-gains-cardano-and-near-risk-rejection-at-emas-resistance-202607310320 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 03:20:36 GMT

[8] British Pound falls as US Dollar receives from internal FOMC policy split URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-falls-as-us-dollar-receives-from-internal-fomc-policy-split-202607310312 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 03:12:08 GMT

[9] Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (1%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-boj-interest-rate-decision-meets-forecasts-1-202607310311 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 03:11:27 GMT

[10] Singapore Unemployment rate: 2% (2Q) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-unemployment-rate-2-2q-202607310230 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 02:30:04 GMT

[11] Gold Forecast: Looks to snap four-month losing streak but sellers refuse to give up URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-forecast-looks-to-snap-four-month-losing-streak-but-sellers-refuse-to-give-up-202607310226 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 02:26:38 GMT

[12] Australian Dollar inches lower as China's NBS Manufacturing PMI falls in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-inches-lower-as-chinas-nbs-manufacturing-pmi-falls-in-july-202607310213 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 02:13:34 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (2):

[1] US senator says Iran has been insincere in diplomacy Time: 2026-07-31T03:27:19.369Z

[2] Oil prices retreat but remain elevated amid Iran war concerns Time: 2026-07-31T02:45:50.290Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 153 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily — 13.3% of normal
Throughput: 10.7% of normal (0.0M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 147
Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 56.7x normal
Tanker Rates: WS185 (+270% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $5.8 billion/day economic cost