Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-30 22:01:12 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.1% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (6 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	DIX 0.453 above 0.45 and rising — institutions accumulating, 0DTE PCR 1.10 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +4.4B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 65% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +6.6% growth optimism · real yield 2.41% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.96 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.41 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.15 normal, SPY/Oil -0.55 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 17.1 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 140 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.54 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 17 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	USD/JPY 5d -2.6% yen strengthening, MOVE 77 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.87% moderate, NFCI -0.554 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally — dark pool, gamma, and breadth align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 86/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX rising to 0.453 (institutional accumulation increasing); GEX positive at 4.4B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads widening (stress building). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.1 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $742.25 | 50 SMA $744.66 | 200 SMA $699.52 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $738.98
QQQ: $687.72 | 50 SMA $715.81 | 200 SMA $644.14 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $673.42
IWM: $292.60 | 50 SMA $291.79 | 200 SMA $265.35 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $290.99
VIX: 17.09 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.663%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$742.25	30.74	36.5	$738.98	Neutral	1.24
QQQ	$687.72	21.82	52.1	$673.42	Neutral	0.84
IWM	$292.60	33.40	8.3	$290.99	Bearish	1.88

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	17.09	66.24	44.2	$10.51	Neutral	0.80
TNX	46.63	58.92	20.4	-	-	-
GLD	$376.49	43.79	24.3	$368.38	Bearish	0.24
DXY	100.02	37.03	39.7	-	-	-
SLV	$53.38	41.11	13.2	$40.00	Bearish	0.41

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.453
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.4B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.87% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 1.00%
2s10s Spread: 0.45% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 65.1%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.2%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.1%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.0%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Financials	89.6%	0/0
Health Care	85.2%	0/0
Consumer Staples	70.6%	0/0
Energy	68.4%	0/0
Real Estate	67.9%	0/0
Communication Services	60.0%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	59.3%	0/0
Materials	58.3%	0/0
Industrials	56.7%	0/0
Technology	52.3%	0/0
Utilities	40.0%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $83.96 (5d: -6.0%)
Brent Crude: $89.45 | Spread: $5.49
RBOB Gasoline: $3.1300/gal
Heating Oil: $4.1200/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.36/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $58.96
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.01

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.961	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.409	elevated
SPY / TNX	-0.146	normal
SPY / Oil	-0.55	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.09
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,907,096.0
0DTE Put Volume: 4,303,461.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.10 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $609.0B
Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $743 (Spot: $742.25)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) · below 20,50d

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -16,784 contracts (Z +2.24, as of 2026-07-21)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.66%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.99 (Normal)
DXY: 100.02
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.24% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.26%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.28%
Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6738.2B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $910.8B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.1B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,826B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,850B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,026B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,703B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,506 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.453, GEX +4.4B, HY OAS 2.87%, breadth 65%.
[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.
[INFO] Screener: EOG — new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 67/100, regime range_noise, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 52% (n=4201)). Worth a look.
[INFO] Screener: MCO — new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 64/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 52% (n=4201)). Worth a look.
[INFO] Screener: CROX — new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 71/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 49% (n=2388)). Worth a look.
[INFO] Screener: GOOGL — new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 67/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated revision_collapse hit-rate 39% (n=80)). Worth a look.
[INFO] Screener: NSC — new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 70/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 48% (n=1228)). Worth a look.
[INFO] Screener: KMI — confluence of 3 archetypes (conviction 65/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pair_divergence hit-rate 44% (n=183)).

Seasonality

Current Month: July
Average Return: +2.50%
Median Return: +2.28%
Hit Rate: 75%
Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721

Earnings:

AAPL: EPS Est. $1.89 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
AMZN: EPS Est. $1.82 (↑0.3% vs 30d)

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (↑8.4% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.47 (↑17.4% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.6% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.61 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $7.05 (↑0.0% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (16):

[1] USD/JPY Price Forecast: Climbs back above mid-160.00s as BoJ rate decision looms URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-climbs-back-above-mid-16000s-as-boj-rate-decision-looms-202607310159 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 01:59:13 GMT

[2] United States Dollar Index bounces off its lowest level since June 17, back above 100.00 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-bounces-off-its-lowest-level-since-june-17-back-above-10000-202607310133 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 01:33:35 GMT

[3] China's NBS Manufacturing PMI falls to 49.2 in July, Non-Manufacturing PMI eases to 49.0 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/chinas-nbs-manufacturing-pmi-falls-to-492-in-july-non-manufacturing-pmi-eases-to-490-202607310131 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 01:31:51 GMT

[4] Indonesian Rupiah mid-year outlook: Why is IDR near historic lows despite Bank Indonesia's 5.75% rate? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/indonesian-rupiah-mid-year-outlook-why-is-idr-near-historic-lows-despite-bank-indonesias-575-rate-202607310130 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 01:30:47 GMT

[5] Australia Private Sector Credit (YoY): 8.5% (June) vs 8.2% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-private-sector-credit-yoy-85-june-vs-82-202607310130 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 01:30:41 GMT

[6] China NBS Manufacturing PMI registered at 49.2, below expectations (50) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-nbs-manufacturing-pmi-registered-at-492-below-expectations-50-in-july-202607310130 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 01:30:33 GMT

[7] China NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 49 below forecasts (50) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-nbs-non-manufacturing-pmi-came-in-at-49-below-forecasts-50-in-july-202607310130 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 01:30:26 GMT

[8] Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) above expectations (0.6%) in June: Actual (0.8%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-private-sector-credit-mom-above-expectations-06-in-june-actual-08-202607310130 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 01:30:10 GMT

[9] Australia Producer Price Index (YoY) up to 3.6% in 2Q from previous 3% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-producer-price-index-yoy-up-to-36-in-2q-from-previous-3-202607310130 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 01:30:03 GMT

[10] Australia Producer Price Index (QoQ) above forecasts (0.3%) in 2Q: Actual (1.3%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-producer-price-index-qoq-above-forecasts-03-in-2q-actual-13-202607310130 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 01:30:02 GMT

[11] New Zealand Dollar holds losses following China PMI data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-weakens-ahead-of-china-pmi-data-202607310124 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 01:24:19 GMT

[12] PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7894 vs. 6.7892 previous URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pboc-sets-usd-cny-reference-rate-at-67894-vs-67892-previous-202607310116 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 01:16:29 GMT

[13] Euro softens to near 1.1500 as US-Iran war widens URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-softens-to-near-11500-as-us-iran-war-widens-202607310112 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 01:12:07 GMT

[14] WTI holds losses around $82.50 on renewed US-Iran diplomatic hopes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-holds-losses-around-8250-on-renewed-us-iran-diplomatic-hopes-202607310054 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 00:54:16 GMT

[15] Japan's Mimura: Always prepared to take suitable measures URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japans-mimura-always-prepared-to-take-suitable-measures-202607310013 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 00:13:14 GMT

[16] US President Donald Trump says Board of Peace has reached agreement for disarmament of Hamas URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-president-donald-trump-says-board-of-peace-has-reached-agreement-for-disarmament-of-hamas-202607310005 Published: Fri, 31 Jul 2026 00:05:09 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (2):

[1] Trump casts doubt on Ukraine Patriot production license - FT Time: 2026-07-31T01:18:47.396Z

[2] State TV dispute exposes limits of oversight in Iran Time: 2026-07-30T23:56:00.000Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 152 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily — 11.4% of normal
Throughput: 8.5% of normal (0.9M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 287
Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 56.7x normal
Tanker Rates: WS180 (+260% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost