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2026-W31

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-30 21:45:09 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.1% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (6 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β€” Strong alignment β€” structural signals confirm price direction

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED DIX 0.453 above 0.45 and rising β€” institutions accumulating, 0DTE PCR 1.10 balanced
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED GEX +4.4B strong suppression
Breadth 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Breadth 65% β€” broad participation supports rally
Energy 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Energy STABLE β€” no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Copper/Gold +6.6% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.41% restrictive
Correlations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” SPY/VIX -0.96 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.41 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.15 normal, SPY/Oil -0.55 stretched
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 17.1 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 140 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 5.54 dealer stress
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Stagflation score 17 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” USD/JPY 5d -2.6% yen strengthening, MOVE 77 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β€” hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED HY OAS 2.87% moderate, NFCI -0.554 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally β€” dark pool, gamma, and breadth align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 86/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX rising to 0.453 (institutional accumulation increasing); GEX positive at 4.4B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads widening (stress building). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.1 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $742.25 | 50 SMA $744.66 | 200 SMA $699.52 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $738.98
  • QQQ: $687.72 | 50 SMA $715.81 | 200 SMA $644.14 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $673.42
  • IWM: $292.60 | 50 SMA $291.79 | 200 SMA $265.35 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $290.99
  • VIX: 17.09 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.663%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $742.25 30.74 36.5 $738.98 Neutral 1.24
QQQ $687.72 21.82 52.1 $673.42 Neutral 0.84
IWM $292.60 33.40 8.3 $290.99 Bearish 1.88

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 17.09 66.24 44.2 $10.51 Neutral 0.80
TNX 46.63 58.92 20.4 - - -
GLD $376.49 43.79 24.3 $368.38 Bearish 0.24
DXY 100.02 37.03 39.7 - - -
SLV $53.38 41.11 13.2 $40.00 Bearish 0.41

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.453
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.4B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.87% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 1.00%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.45% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 65.1%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.2%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 31.1%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 41.0%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Financials 89.6% 0/0
Health Care 85.2% 0/0
Consumer Staples 70.6% 0/0
Energy 68.4% 0/0
Real Estate 67.9% 0/0
Communication Services 60.0% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 59.3% 0/0
Materials 58.3% 0/0
Industrials 56.7% 0/0
Technology 52.3% 0/0
Utilities 40.0% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: STABLE
  • WTI Crude: $83.96 (5d: -6.0%)
  • Brent Crude: $89.45 | Spread: $5.49
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.1300/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.1200/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.36/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $58.96
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $10.01

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.961 elevated
SPY / DXY -0.409 elevated
SPY / TNX -0.146 normal
SPY / Oil -0.55 stretched

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.09
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 3,907,096.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 4,303,461.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.10 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $609.0B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $743 (Spot: $742.25)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
  • Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -16,784 contracts (Z +2.24, as of 2026-07-21)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.66%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.99 (Normal)
  • DXY: 100.02
  • Growth vs Value: 0.93
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.24% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.26%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.28%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6738.2B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $910.8B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.1B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,826B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,850B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,026B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,703B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,751 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.453, GEX +4.4B, HY OAS 2.87%, breadth 65%.
  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β€” normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
  • [WARNING] Regime shifted from TRANSITIONAL to RISK-ON.
  • [INFO] Screener: EOG β€” new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 67/100, regime range_noise, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 52% (n=4201)). Worth a look.
  • [INFO] Screener: MCO β€” new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 64/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 52% (n=4201)). Worth a look.
  • [INFO] Screener: CROX β€” new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 71/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 49% (n=2388)). Worth a look.
  • [INFO] Screener: GOOGL β€” new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 67/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated revision_collapse hit-rate 39% (n=80)). Worth a look.
  • [INFO] Screener: NSC β€” new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 70/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 48% (n=1228)). Worth a look.
  • [INFO] Screener: XRAY β€” new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 71/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 49% (n=2388)). Worth a look.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: July
  • Average Return: +2.50%
  • Median Return: +2.28%
  • Hit Rate: 75%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32475.21 | Prev: 31865.721

Earnings:

  • AAPL: EPS Est. $1.89 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: EPS Est. $1.82 (↑0.3% vs 30d)

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
  • Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (↑8.4% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.47 (↑17.4% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.6% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.61 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $7.05 (↑0.0% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (22):

[1] Iran says US to 'pay the price' for Qeshm civilians killed URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/iran-says-us-to-pay-the-price-for-qeshm-civilians-killed-202607302351 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 23:51:14 GMT

[2] Japan Large Retailer Sales fell from previous 5% to -1% in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-large-retailer-sales-fell-from-previous-5-to-1-in-june-202607302351 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 23:51:11 GMT

[3] Japan Retail Trade s.a (MoM) down to -4.1% in June from previous 1.9% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-retail-trade-sa-mom-down-to-41-in-june-from-previous-19-202607302350 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 23:50:46 GMT

[4] Japan Industrial Production (YoY): 4.25% (June) vs -2.1% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-industrial-production-yoy-425-june-vs-21-202607302350 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 23:50:44 GMT

[5] Japan Retail Trade (YoY) registered at 0.5%, below expectations (3.1%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-retail-trade-yoy-registered-at-05-below-expectations-31-in-june-202607302350 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 23:50:07 GMT

[6] Japan Industrial Production (MoM) above expectations (0.7%) in June: Actual (1.3%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-industrial-production-mom-above-expectations-07-in-june-actual-13-202607302350 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 23:50:07 GMT

[7] Saudi Arabia announces maritime defence alliance to protect Red Sea URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/saudi-arabia-announces-maritime-defence-alliance-to-protect-red-sea-202607302339 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 23:39:25 GMT

[8] Japan's Tokyo CPI inflation rises to 2.0% YoY in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japans-tokyo-cpi-inflation-rises-to-20-yoy-in-july-202607302331 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 23:31:05 GMT

[9] Japan Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) up to 2% in July from previous 1.9% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-tokyo-cpi-ex-food-energy-yoy-up-to-2-in-july-from-previous-19-202607302330 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 23:30:26 GMT

[10] Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) above expectations (1.7%) in July: Actual (1.9%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-tokyo-cpi-ex-fresh-food-yoy-above-expectations-17-in-july-actual-19-202607302330 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 23:30:06 GMT

[11] Japan Unemployment Rate in line with forecasts (2.5%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-unemployment-rate-in-line-with-forecasts-25-in-june-202607302330 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 23:30:03 GMT

[12] Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) up to 2% in July from previous 1.7% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-tokyo-consumer-price-index-yoy-up-to-2-in-july-from-previous-17-202607302330 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 23:30:03 GMT

[13] Japan Jobs / Applicants Ratio came in at 1.18, above expectations (1.17) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-jobs-applicants-ratio-came-in-at-118-above-expectations-117-in-june-202607302330 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 23:30:01 GMT

[14] Gold edges higher above $4,100 as traders trim Fed hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-edges-higher-above-4-100-as-traders-trim-fed-hike-bets-202607302323 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 23:23:51 GMT

[15] The Australian Dollar clears a big figure on an intervention it will come to regret URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-australian-dollar-clears-a-big-figure-on-an-intervention-it-will-come-to-regret-202607302300 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 23:00:18 GMT

[16] South Korea Industrial Output Growth above expectations (3%) in June: Actual (6.4%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korea-industrial-output-growth-above-expectations-3-in-june-actual-64-202607302300 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 23:00:02 GMT

[17] South Korea Service Sector Output declined to 0.7% in June from previous 1.3% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korea-service-sector-output-declined-to-07-in-june-from-previous-13-202607302300 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 23:00:02 GMT

[18] South Korea Industrial Output (YoY) above forecasts (2.5%) in June: Actual (5.8%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korea-industrial-output-yoy-above-forecasts-25-in-june-actual-58-202607302300 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 23:00:01 GMT

[19] The Japanese Yen gets its ambush, and the Bank of Japan gets overnight to justify it URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-japanese-yen-gets-its-ambush-and-the-bank-of-japan-gets-overnight-to-justify-it-202607302258 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 22:58:51 GMT

[20] British Pound Sterling rallies on a hawkish vote the Bank of England immediately talked down URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-sterling-rallies-on-a-hawkish-vote-the-bank-of-england-immediately-talked-down-202607302249 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 22:49:19 GMT

[21] New Zealand ANZ - Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence: 99.3 (July) vs 91.3 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-anz-roy-morgan-consumer-confidence-993-july-vs-913-202607302237 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 22:37:19 GMT

[22] USD/CHF Price Forecast: 50-day SMA guards bullish structure URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-price-forecast-50-day-sma-guards-bullish-structure-202607302216 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 22:16:28 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (3):

[1] Egypt denies believing Iran behind Damietta ship attack - Al Jazeera Time: 2026-07-30T23:09:11.665Z

[2] Trump says deal reached for complete disarmament of Hamas Time: 2026-07-30T22:38:45.067Z

[3] Explosions heard in Iraq's Erbil - Al Jazeera Time: 2026-07-30T22:25:55.018Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 152 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily β€” 16.7% of normal
  • Throughput: 10.0% of normal (1.0M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 0
  • Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 53.3x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS190 (+280% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.5 billion/day economic cost