Skip to content
← Archive

2026-W31

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-30 08:00:58 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -1.5% (3d) | Alignment: 22% (2 aligned, 7 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β€” Strong divergence β€” structural signals broadly disagree with price

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED DIX 0.425 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.33 put-heavy
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT GEX +6.2B strong suppression
Breadth 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Breadth 67% β€” broad participation supports rally
Energy 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Energy FALLING β€” oil decline, mild equity tailwind
growth_expectations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Copper/Gold +3.6% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.44% restrictive
Correlations 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT SPY/VIX -0.94 normal, SPY/DXY -0.09 normal, SPY/TNX -0.34 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.57 stretched
Volatility πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED VIX 20.7 moderate Β· SKEW 140 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 5.30 dealer stress
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Stagflation score 13 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT USD/JPY 5d +0.2% stable, MOVE 74 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT HY OAS 2.84% moderate, NFCI -0.554 loose

Divergence read: Strong divergence β€” gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 7 of 9 signals refuse to confirm the decline β€” reversal risk if structure holds.

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 76/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 76 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β€” DIX below threshold (0.425) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 7 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.425; GEX positive at 6.2B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 20.7 (elevated-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $729.70 | 50 SMA $744.86 | 200 SMA $699.23 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $743.91
  • QQQ: $661.50 | 50 SMA $716.75 | 200 SMA $643.88 | -0.1% from 50d | ZGL $677.65
  • IWM: $288.15 | 50 SMA $291.57 | 200 SMA $265.13 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $294.63
  • VIX: 20.66 β€” 20-30 (elevated)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.622%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $729.70 45.69 37.5 $743.91 Bearish 7.18
QQQ $661.50 33.24 56.9 $677.65 Bearish 7.92
IWM $288.15 49.78 0.0 $294.63 Bearish 11.86

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 20.66 54.87 39.7 $11.16 Neutral 0.58
TNX 46.22 53.67 20.6 - - -
GLD $373.16 45.71 25.2 $371.77 Neutral 0.89
DXY 100.84 48.28 19.9 - - -
SLV $52.46 46.12 13.3 $38.38 Neutral 0.69

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.425
  • DIX Signal: Neutral
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.18B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.84% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 1.00%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.45% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 66.9%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.8%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 30.9%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 40.8%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Health Care 88.9% 0/0
Real Estate 85.7% 0/0
Financials 83.6% 0/0
Consumer Staples 82.4% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 69.5% 0/0
Communication Services 65.0% 0/0
Energy 63.2% 0/0
Industrials 56.7% 0/0
Materials 54.2% 0/0
Utilities 46.7% 0/0
Technology 44.6% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: FALLING
  • WTI Crude: $84.60 (5d: -8.2%)
  • Brent Crude: $90.54 | Spread: $5.94
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.2200/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.2300/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $64.78/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $58.65
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $9.93

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.945 normal
SPY / DXY -0.093 normal
SPY / TNX -0.34 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.57 stretched

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.18
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.28 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 3,322,143.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 4,415,300.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.33 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $564.4B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $755 | Put Wall: $726 (Spot: $729.70)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
  • Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -16,784 contracts (Z +2.24, as of 2026-07-21)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -12.7% (as of 2026-07-22)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.62%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.96 (Normal)
  • DXY: 100.84
  • Growth vs Value: 0.91
  • Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.16% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.20%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 13/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6747.4B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $829.6B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.6B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,915B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,809B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,915B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,639B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,724 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β€” normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~56h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=117887B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
  • [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-OFF to TRANSITIONAL.
  • [WARNING] SPY (740.08) dropped below ZGL (741.49) β€” expect amplified downside moves.
  • [INFO] SPY (741.61) reclaimed ZGL (741.44) β€” volatility dampening resumes.
  • [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
  • [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.40 to 0.397 β€” institutional demand weakening.
  • [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=117887B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
  • [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.433 β€” institutional buying support fading.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: July
  • Average Return: +2.42%
  • Median Return: +2.28%
  • Hit Rate: 75%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 23155.2000000000 | Prev: 23055.6000000000

Earnings:

  • AAPL: EPS Est. $1.89 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: EPS Est. $1.82 (↑0.3% vs 30d)

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (↑8.4% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.47 (↑17.4% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.6% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↑0.0% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (27):

[1] Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.8%, above forecasts (0.7%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-consumer-price-index-mom-came-in-at-08-above-forecasts-07-in-july-202607301200 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 12:00:06 GMT

[2] Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) above expectations (0.8%) in July: Actual (0.9%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-mom-above-expectations-08-in-july-actual-09-202607301200 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 12:00:05 GMT

[3] Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) meets forecasts (2.8%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-yoy-meets-forecasts-28-in-july-202607301200 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 12:00:04 GMT

[4] Brazil Unemployment Rate meets expectations (5.4%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazil-unemployment-rate-meets-expectations-54-in-june-202607301200 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 12:00:02 GMT

[5] Gold: Central bank demand seen easing after Q2 rebound - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-central-bank-demand-seen-easing-after-q2-rebound-bny-202607301155 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 11:55:17 GMT

[6] United States Dollar Index turns upside down on Fed rate hike doubts URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-turns-upside-down-on-fed-rate-hike-doubts-202607301151 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 11:51:05 GMT

[7] Fed stands pat URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/fed-stands-pat-202607301150 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 11:50:10 GMT

[8] Stocks tumble on Fed uncertainty and Warsh's no-guidance Stance, MSFT surges on strong results URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/stocks-tumble-on-fed-uncertainty-and-warshs-no-guidance-stance-msft-surges-on-strong-results-202607301147 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 11:47:39 GMT

[9] United States: Growth and inflation data set to soften - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-growth-and-inflation-data-set-to-soften-td-securities-202607301146 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 11:46:01 GMT

[10] Euro: Strong GDP supports September ECB hike - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-strong-gdp-supports-september-ecb-hike-bbh-202607301132 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 11:32:26 GMT

[11] Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC recovery pauses as hawkish Fed, US-Iran tensions weigh on sentiment URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-price-forecast-btc-recovery-pauses-as-hawkish-fed-us-iran-tensions-weigh-on-sentiment-202607301127 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 11:27:01 GMT

[12] Polish Zloty: Glapinski probe seen low-impact for FX - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/polish-zloty-glapinski-probe-seen-low-impact-for-fx-commerzbank-202607301120 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 11:20:24 GMT

[13] Gold caught between softer US Dollar and rising Treasury yields, US PCE awaited URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-caught-between-softer-us-dollar-and-rising-treasury-yields-us-pce-awaited-202607301120 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 11:20:05 GMT

[14] Brent Oil outlook: Recovery faces headwinds but holds grip for now URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/brent-oil-outlook-recovery-faces-headwinds-but-holds-grip-for-now-202607301116 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 11:16:00 GMT

[15] British Pound drops against its peers after BoE's monetary policy decision URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-drops-against-its-peers-after-boes-monetary-policy-decision-202607301112 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 11:12:20 GMT

[16] Federal Reserve: September hike risk stays on table - Nordea URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/federal-reserve-september-hike-risk-stays-on-table-nordea-202607301112 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 11:12:06 GMT

[17] Brazil Inflation Index/IGP-M below expectations (-1.09%) in July: Actual (-1.16%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazil-inflation-index-igp-m-below-expectations-109-in-july-actual-116-202607301100 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 11:00:09 GMT

[18] United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Rate Unchanged came in at 6 below forecasts (7) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-boe-mpc-vote-rate-unchanged-came-in-at-6-below-forecasts-7-202607301100 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 11:00:08 GMT

[19] United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Rate Hike above expectations (2): Actual (3) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-boe-mpc-vote-rate-hike-above-expectations-2-actual-3-202607301100 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 11:00:07 GMT

[20] United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Rate Cut in line with expectations (0) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-boe-mpc-vote-rate-cut-in-line-with-expectations-0-202607301100 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 11:00:06 GMT

[21] United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (3.75%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-boe-interest-rate-decision-in-line-with-forecasts-375-202607301100 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 11:00:03 GMT

[22] Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP trade sideways as US-Iran tensions intensify URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-today-bitcoin-ethereum-xrp-trade-sideways-as-us-iran-tensions-intensify-202607301100 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 11:00:00 GMT

[23] Eurozone GDP shows economy is 'holding up well' - Iran conflict key risk to growth URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eurozone-gdp-shows-economy-is-holding-up-well-iran-conflict-key-risk-to-growth-202607301032 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 10:32:21 GMT

[24] BoE to deliver 7-2 vote to hold - Bailey unlikely to lean into hawkish rhetoric URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/boe-to-deliver-7-2-vote-to-hold-bailey-unlikely-to-lean-into-hawkish-rhetoric-202607301019 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 10:19:39 GMT

[25] Bitcoin ETF inflows return as Ether funds slip into outflows URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-etf-inflows-return-as-ether-funds-slip-into-outflows-202607301012 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 10:12:50 GMT

[26] British Pound: BoE policy seen on extended hold - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-boe-policy-seen-on-extended-hold-societe-generale-202607301005 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 10:05:13 GMT

[27] Italy Producer Price Index (MoM): 0% (June) vs -0.2% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-producer-price-index-mom-0-june-vs-02-202607301001 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 10:01:08 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (6):

[1] Iran faces no shortages of essential goods, agriculture minister says Time: 2026-07-30T11:13:48.434Z

[2] IRGC says strike destroys three US F-35s at Jordan air base Time: 2026-07-30T11:02:14.230Z

[3] Qatar condemns renewed Iranian attacks on Jordan and Kuwait Time: 2026-07-30T10:56:46.025Z

[4] Israel may join war against Iran, senior lawmaker says Time: 2026-07-30T10:41:15.736Z

[BREAKING] [5] IRGC says US missile strike killed three members in Iran's Zanjan Time: 2026-07-30T10:38:09.970Z

[6] Video: US strikes IRGC warehouse on Qeshm island Time: 2026-07-30T10:26:51.953Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 152 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily β€” 16.7% of normal
  • Throughput: 16.5% of normal (1.7M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 335
  • Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 33.3x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS145 (+190% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $8.5 billion/day economic cost