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2026-W31

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-30 06:01:02 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -1.5% (3d) | Alignment: 22% (2 aligned, 7 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β€” Strong divergence β€” structural signals broadly disagree with price

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED DIX 0.425 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.33 put-heavy
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT GEX +6.2B strong suppression
Breadth 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Breadth 67% β€” broad participation supports rally
Energy 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Energy FALLING β€” oil decline, mild equity tailwind
growth_expectations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Copper/Gold +3.6% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.44% restrictive
Correlations 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT SPY/VIX -0.94 normal, SPY/DXY -0.09 normal, SPY/TNX -0.34 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.57 stretched
Volatility πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED VIX 20.7 moderate Β· SKEW 140 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 5.30 dealer stress
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Stagflation score 13 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT USD/JPY 5d +0.2% stable, MOVE 74 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT HY OAS 2.84% moderate, NFCI -0.554 loose

Divergence read: Strong divergence β€” gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 7 of 9 signals refuse to confirm the decline β€” reversal risk if structure holds.

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 76/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 76 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β€” DIX below threshold (0.425) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 7 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.425; GEX positive at 6.2B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 20.7 (elevated-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $729.70 | 50 SMA $744.86 | 200 SMA $699.23 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $743.91
  • QQQ: $661.50 | 50 SMA $716.75 | 200 SMA $643.88 | -0.1% from 50d | ZGL $677.65
  • IWM: $288.15 | 50 SMA $291.57 | 200 SMA $265.13 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $294.63
  • VIX: 20.66 β€” 20-30 (elevated)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.622%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $729.70 45.69 37.5 $743.91 Bearish 7.18
QQQ $661.50 33.24 56.9 $677.65 Bearish 7.92
IWM $288.15 49.78 0.0 $294.63 Bearish 11.86

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 20.66 54.87 39.7 $11.16 Neutral 0.58
TNX 46.22 53.67 20.6 - - -
GLD $373.16 45.71 25.2 $371.77 Neutral 0.89
DXY 100.84 48.28 19.9 - - -
SLV $52.46 46.12 13.3 $38.38 Neutral 0.69

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.425
  • DIX Signal: Neutral
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.18B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.84% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 1.00%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.45% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 66.9%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.8%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 30.9%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 40.8%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Health Care 88.9% 0/0
Real Estate 85.7% 0/0
Financials 83.6% 0/0
Consumer Staples 82.4% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 69.5% 0/0
Communication Services 65.0% 0/0
Energy 63.2% 0/0
Industrials 56.7% 0/0
Materials 54.2% 0/0
Utilities 46.7% 0/0
Technology 44.6% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: FALLING
  • WTI Crude: $84.60 (5d: -8.2%)
  • Brent Crude: $90.54 | Spread: $5.94
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.2200/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.2300/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $64.78/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $58.65
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $9.93

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.945 normal
SPY / DXY -0.093 normal
SPY / TNX -0.34 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.57 stretched

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.18
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.28 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 3,322,143.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 4,415,300.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.33 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $564.4B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $755 | Put Wall: $720 (Spot: $729.70)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
  • Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -16,784 contracts (Z +2.24, as of 2026-07-21)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -12.7% (as of 2026-07-22)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.62%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.96 (Normal)
  • DXY: 100.84
  • Growth vs Value: 0.91
  • Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.16% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.20%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 13/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6747.4B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $829.6B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.6B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,915B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,809B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,915B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,639B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,483 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β€” normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~56h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~32h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=117887B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
  • [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-OFF to TRANSITIONAL.
  • [WARNING] SPY (740.08) dropped below ZGL (741.49) β€” expect amplified downside moves.
  • [INFO] SPY (741.61) reclaimed ZGL (741.44) β€” volatility dampening resumes.
  • [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
  • [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.40 to 0.397 β€” institutional demand weakening.
  • [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=117887B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).

Seasonality

  • Current Month: July
  • Average Return: +2.42%
  • Median Return: +2.28%
  • Hit Rate: 75%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 23155.2000000000 | Prev: 23055.6000000000

Earnings:

  • AAPL: EPS Est. $1.89 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: EPS Est. $1.82 (↑0.3% vs 30d)

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (↑8.4% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.47 (↑17.4% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.6% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↑0.0% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (29):

[1] US Dollar: Post-FOMC losses likely to remain limited - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-post-fomc-losses-likely-to-remain-limited-td-securities-202607300959 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 09:59:06 GMT

[2] FX daily: Bond vigilantes may be the Dollar's best friends URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/fx-daily-bond-vigilantes-may-be-the-dollars-best-friends-202607300956 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 09:56:17 GMT

[3] Litecoin (LTC/USD) shows signs of a potential bottom formation [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/litecoin-ltc-usd-shows-signs-of-a-potential-bottom-formation-video-202607300953 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 09:53:22 GMT

[4] Bank of England: Market pricing stays hawkish - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/bank-of-england-market-pricing-stays-hawkish-ing-202607300947 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 09:47:56 GMT

[5] Italy 10-y Bond Auction increased to 4% from previous 3.63% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-10-y-bond-auction-increased-to-4-from-previous-363-202607300946 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 09:46:37 GMT

[6] Italy 5-y Bond Auction climbed from previous 3.03% to 3.39% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-5-y-bond-auction-climbed-from-previous-303-to-339-202607300946 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 09:46:29 GMT

[7] BoE and BoJ decisions to come - Peak earnings flow URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/boe-and-boj-decisions-to-come-peak-earnings-flow-202607300945 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 09:45:13 GMT

[8] British Pound: Fiscal concerns may weigh on Sterling - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-fiscal-concerns-may-weigh-on-sterling-rabobank-202607300939 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 09:39:19 GMT

[9] Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202607300931 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 09:31:41 GMT

[10] South Africa Producer Price Index (MoM) declined to -0.1% in June from previous 2.6% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-africa-producer-price-index-mom-declined-to-01-in-june-from-previous-26-202607300930 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 09:30:09 GMT

[11] South Africa Producer Price Index (YoY) dipped from previous 7.8% to 7.5% in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-africa-producer-price-index-yoy-dipped-from-previous-78-to-75-in-june-202607300930 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 09:30:05 GMT

[12] Belgium Consumer Price Index (YoY) rose from previous 3.4% to 3.56% in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/belgium-consumer-price-index-yoy-rose-from-previous-34-to-356-in-july-202607300930 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 09:30:01 GMT

[13] Belgium Consumer Price Index (MoM) increased to 0.63% in July from previous 0.3% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/belgium-consumer-price-index-mom-increased-to-063-in-july-from-previous-03-202607300930 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 09:30:00 GMT

[14] Japanese Yen: BoJ tone could lift JPY against US Dollar - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-boj-tone-could-lift-jpy-against-us-dollar-commerzbank-202607300928 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 09:28:06 GMT

[15] Bank of England vote could spur GBP/USD jump URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/bank-of-england-vote-could-spur-gbp-usd-jump-202607300924 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 09:24:18 GMT

[16] Wild ride on the NASDAQ post - FOMC, USD Weaker. Microsoft and Meta earnings beat estimates [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/wild-ride-on-the-nasdaq-post-fomc-usd-weaker-microsoft-and-meta-earnings-beat-estimates-video-202607300922 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 09:22:44 GMT

[17] Japan PM Takaichi: Will avoid debt channel to ensure market trust
URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-pm-takaichi-will-avoid-debt-issuance-to-ensure-market-trust-202607300921 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 09:21:18 GMT

[18] USD/JPY temporary in equilibrium: Multiple factors in focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/usd-jpy-temporary-in-equilibrium-multiple-factors-in-focus-202607300917 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 09:17:53 GMT

[19] Federal Reserve: Dollar awaits clearer policy signals - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/federal-reserve-dollar-awaits-clearer-policy-signals-societe-generale-202607300915 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 09:15:10 GMT

[20] Euro rebounds strongly against Yen after German, Eurozone Q2 GDP data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-rebounds-strongly-against-yen-after-german-eurozone-q2-gdp-data-202607300912 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 09:12:22 GMT

[21] Canadian Dollar edges lower amid rebounding USD as traders await key US macro data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-edges-lower-amid-rebounding-usd-as-traders-await-key-us-macro-data-202607300906 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 09:06:29 GMT

[22] US Dollar Index outlook: Regains traction after post-Fed drop as worsening geopolitical situation URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/us-dollar-index-outlook-regains-traction-after-post-fed-drop-as-worsening-geopolitical-situation-202607300903 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 09:03:13 GMT

[23] Eurozone GDP returns to growth in Q2, rises strongly by 0.4% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-gdp-returns-to-growth-rises-strongly-by-04-202607300902 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 09:02:51 GMT

[24] US Dollar: Fed reaction function clouds dollar outlook - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-fed-reaction-function-clouds-dollar-outlook-mufg-202607300901 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 09:01:42 GMT

[25] Eurozone Business Climate increased to -0.19 in July from previous -0.38 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-business-climate-increased-to-019-in-july-from-previous-038-202607300900 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 09:00:54 GMT

[26] Italy Unemployment registered at 5.7% above expectations (5.1%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-unemployment-registered-at-57-above-expectations-51-in-june-202607300900 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 09:00:45 GMT

[27] Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) above expectations (0.5%) in 2Q: Actual (1%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-gross-domestic-product-sa-yoy-above-expectations-05-in-2q-actual-1-202607300900 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 09:00:13 GMT

[28] BoE interest rate expected to stay unchanged as focus shifts to policy outlook, vote split URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/boe-interest-rate-expected-to-remain-unchanged-at-375-as-markets-look-for-policy-clues-202607300900 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 09:00:00 GMT

[29] Euro steadies near weekly highs following bright Eurozone growth numbers URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-trims-daily-losses-as-german-preliminary-gdp-beats-expectations-202607300835 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 08:35:16 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (6):

[1] Video: Smoke rises over Iran's Qeshm island after reported US strikes Time: 2026-07-30T09:49:49.379Z

[2] Tehran uses war as cover to ramp up executions, political prisoners say Time: 2026-07-30T09:42:35.065Z

[3] Watch: US strikes dozens of IRGC targets in Iran Time: 2026-07-30T09:41:39.216Z

[4] Video: Heavy explosions and fighter jets heard in Ahvaz Time: 2026-07-30T09:40:26.435Z

[5] New Zealand condemns executions and killings of protesters in Iran Time: 2026-07-30T08:57:03.564Z

[6] Iran has no plans to send delegation to Pakistan or Qatar - Nour News Time: 2026-07-30T08:44:19.135Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 152 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 8 of 60 normal daily β€” 11.4% of normal
  • Throughput: 11.2% of normal (1.2M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 335
  • Oil Prices: Brent $86.99 (+2.33%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 50.0x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS420 (+740% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $8.2 billion/day economic cost