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2026-W31

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-30 08:31:50 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.9% (3d) | Alignment: 12% (1 aligned, 7 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β€” Strong divergence β€” structural signals broadly disagree with price

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED DIX 0.425 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.33 put-heavy
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT GEX +6.2B strong suppression
Breadth 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Breadth 67% β€” broad participation supports rally
Energy 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Energy STABLE β€” no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Copper/Gold +5.3% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.44% restrictive
Correlations 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT SPY/VIX -0.94 normal, SPY/DXY -0.09 normal, SPY/TNX -0.34 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.57 stretched
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 19.0 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 140 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 5.77 dealer stress
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Stagflation score 13 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT USD/JPY 5d -0.6% stable, MOVE 74 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β€” hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT HY OAS 2.84% moderate, NFCI -0.554 loose

Divergence read: Strong divergence β€” gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 7 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β€” reversal risk if structure holds.

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 83/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 83 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β€” DIX below threshold (0.425) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 7 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.425; GEX positive at 6.2B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 19.0 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

Screener Action Board

  • Regime: low β€” Calm regime β€” balanced board
  • Longs: BX, FSLR, IEX
  • Shorts: VLY, TSCO

Track Record

  • AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 14% (n=240) | 3d 36% (n=240) | 5d 32% (n=240)
  • Screener Board Record: 99 closed (hit rate 56%) Β· 132 open

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $734.59 | 50 SMA $744.66 | 200 SMA $699.52 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $731.93
  • QQQ: $671.81 | 50 SMA $715.81 | 200 SMA $644.14 | -0.1% from 50d | ZGL $668.6
  • IWM: $290.51 | 50 SMA $291.79 | 200 SMA $265.35 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $290.98
  • VIX: 18.97 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.673%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $734.59 30.74 36.5 $731.93 Bearish 3.62
QQQ $671.81 21.82 52.1 $668.60 Bearish 2.87
IWM $290.51 33.40 8.3 $290.98 Bearish 7.06

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 18.97 66.24 44.2 $10.51 Neutral 0.55
TNX 46.73 β–² 58.92 20.4 - - -
GLD $373.68 43.79 24.3 $368.44 Neutral 0.67
DXY 100.68 45.14 24.1 - - -
SLV $52.40 41.11 13.2 $52.09 Neutral 0.85

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.425
  • DIX Signal: Neutral
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.18B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.84% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 1.00%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.45% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 66.9%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.8%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 30.9%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 40.8%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Health Care 88.9% 0/0
Real Estate 85.7% 0/0
Financials 83.6% 0/0
Consumer Staples 82.4% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 69.5% 0/0
Communication Services 65.0% 0/0
Energy 63.2% 0/0
Industrials 56.7% 0/0
Materials 54.2% 0/0
Utilities 46.7% 0/0
Technology 44.6% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: STABLE
  • WTI Crude: $83.75 (5d: -6.2%)
  • Brent Crude: $90.10 | Spread: $6.35
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.1700/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.1300/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $62.83/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $58.65
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $9.93

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.945 normal
SPY / DXY -0.093 normal
SPY / TNX -0.34 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.57 stretched

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.18
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.33 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $564.4B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $755 | Put Wall: $726 (Spot: $734.59)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
  • Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -16,784 contracts (Z +2.24, as of 2026-07-21)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -12.7% (as of 2026-07-22)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.67%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.01 (Normal)
  • DXY: 100.68
  • Growth vs Value: 0.91
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.16% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.20%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 13/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6747.4B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $829.6B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.6B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,915B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,809B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,915B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,639B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $64,786 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β€” normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
  • [INFO] SPY (734.59) reclaimed ZGL (731.93) β€” volatility dampening resumes.
  • [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=117887B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
  • [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-OFF to TRANSITIONAL.
  • [WARNING] SPY (740.08) dropped below ZGL (741.49) β€” expect amplified downside moves.
  • [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=117887B
  • [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.40 to 0.397 β€” institutional demand weakening.
  • [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=117887B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
  • [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.433 β€” institutional buying support fading.
  • [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β€” systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).

Seasonality

  • Current Month: July
  • Average Return: +2.42%
  • Median Return: +2.28%
  • Hit Rate: 75%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 31865.721 | Prev: 31422.526

Earnings:

  • AAPL: EPS Est. $1.89 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: EPS Est. $1.82 (↑0.3% vs 30d)

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
  • Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (↑8.4% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.47 (↑17.4% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.6% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.24 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $7.40 (↓1.5% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (29):

[1] United States Gross Domestic Product Price Index above expectations (3.6%) in 2Q: Actual (6.3%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-gross-domestic-product-price-index-above-expectations-36-in-2q-actual-63-202607301230 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 12:30:42 GMT

[2] United States Continuing Jobless Claims registered at 1.782M, below expectations (1.8M) in July 17 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-continuing-jobless-claims-registered-at-1782m-below-expectations-18m-in-july-17-202607301230 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 12:30:30 GMT

[3] British Pound steadies against Euro as BoE leaves interest rate unchanged URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-steadies-against-euro-as-boe-leaves-interest-rate-unchanged-202607301230 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 12:30:18 GMT

[4] United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) registered at 3.4%, below expectations (3.5%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-core-personal-consumption-expenditures-qoq-registered-at-34-below-expectations-35-in-2q-202607301230 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 12:30:13 GMT

[5] United States Gross Domestic Product Annualized registered at 1.5%, below expectations (2.1%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-gross-domestic-product-annualized-registered-at-15-below-expectations-21-in-2q-202607301230 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 12:30:13 GMT

[6] United States Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ): 5.1% (2Q) vs 4.6% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-personal-consumption-expenditures-prices-qoq-51-2q-vs-46-202607301230 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 12:30:13 GMT

[7] United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) meets expectations (3.3%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-core-personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-yoy-meets-expectations-33-in-june-202607301230 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 12:30:10 GMT

[8] United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (3.7%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-yoy-meets-forecasts-37-in-june-202607301230 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 12:30:09 GMT

[9] United States Personal Spending meets forecasts (0.3%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-personal-spending-meets-forecasts-03-in-june-202607301230 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 12:30:07 GMT

[10] United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) in line with forecasts (-0.1%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-mom-in-line-with-forecasts-01-in-june-202607301230 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 12:30:07 GMT

[11] United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) below expectations (0.2%) in June: Actual (0.1%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-core-personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-mom-below-expectations-02-in-june-actual-01-202607301230 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 12:30:07 GMT

[12] United States Personal Income (MoM) below expectations (0.3%) in June: Actual (0.2%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-personal-income-mom-below-expectations-03-in-june-actual-02-202607301230 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 12:30:07 GMT

[13] United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average fell from previous 207.5K to 202.75K in July 24 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-initial-jobless-claims-4-week-average-fell-from-previous-2075k-to-20275k-in-july-24-202607301230 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 12:30:03 GMT

[14] United States Initial Jobless Claims below expectations (200K) in July 24: Actual (197K) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-initial-jobless-claims-below-expectations-200k-in-july-24-actual-197k-202607301230 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 12:30:03 GMT

[15] Federal Reserve: September hike risk stays elevated - ABN AMRO URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/federal-reserve-september-hike-risk-stays-elevated-abn-amro-202607301226 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 12:26:27 GMT

[16] BoE reaction: Gap opening between vote and rhetoric - GBP gets boost URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/boe-reaction-gap-opening-between-vote-and-rhetoric-gbp-gets-boost-202607301226 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 12:26:25 GMT

[17] Fed holds, but the Dollar may have heard something else URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/fed-holds-but-the-dollar-may-have-heard-something-else-202607301224 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 12:24:41 GMT

[18] Bailey speech: Encouraging CPI is below where we thought it would be URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/bailey-speech-encouraging-cpi-is-below-where-we-thought-it-would-be-202607301222 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 12:22:16 GMT

[19] Federal Reserve's thunder and no rain weighs on Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/federal-reserves-thunder-and-no-rain-weighs-on-dollar-202607301218 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 12:18:51 GMT

[20] Bailey speech: Need to raise rates if Mideast conflict leads to 2nd round effects URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/bailey-speech-need-to-raise-rates-if-mideast-conflict-leads-to-2nd-round-effects-202607301217 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 12:17:45 GMT

[21] US Dollar: Hawkish hold tempers USD strength - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-hawkish-hold-tempers-usd-strength-ing-202607301216 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 12:16:39 GMT

[22] The FOMC leaves rates unchanged URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-fomc-leaves-rates-unchanged-202607301210 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 12:10:33 GMT

[23] Bailey speech: Ready to adjust our stance as evidence evolves URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/bailey-speech-ready-to-adjust-our-stance-as-evidence-evolves-202607301210 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 12:10:25 GMT

[24] Germany annual CPI inflation climbs to 2.8% in July vs. 2.7% expected URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-annual-cpi-inflation-climbs-to-28-in-july-vs-27-expected-202607301208 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 12:08:28 GMT

[25] SPX pullback targets 7193-6953 before another bounce [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spx-pullback-targets-7193-6953-before-another-bounce-video-202607301207 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 12:07:12 GMT

[26] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP drops against its peers after BoE's decision URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-drops-against-its-peers-after-boes-decision-202607301205 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 12:05:35 GMT

[27] Mexico Gross Domestic Product (YoY) registered at 2.2% above expectations (1.5%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-gross-domestic-product-yoy-registered-at-22-above-expectations-15-in-2q-202607301201 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 12:01:06 GMT

[28] Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) above forecasts (2.7%) in July: Actual (2.8%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-consumer-price-index-yoy-above-forecasts-27-in-july-actual-28-202607301200 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 12:00:52 GMT

[29] Mexico Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) above forecasts (1.3%) in 2Q: Actual (1.5%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-gross-domestic-product-qoq-above-forecasts-13-in-2q-actual-15-202607301200 Published: Thu, 30 Jul 2026 12:00:32 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (1):

[1] Iranians rally in Madrid and Lisbon against executions Time: 2026-07-30T12:08:26.078Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 152 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily β€” 16.7% of normal
  • Throughput: 16.5% of normal (1.7M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 335
  • Oil Prices: Brent $91.82 (-8.46%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 33.3x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS145 (+190% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $8.5 billion/day economic cost