Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-28 06:01:33 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.0% (3d) | Alignment: 88% (7 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.402 below 0.42 β institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 0.94 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +3.5B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 70% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +3.3% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.92 normal, SPY/DXY -0.59 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.38 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.47 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 18.7 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 147 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.40 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 17 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.8% stable, MOVE 77 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.79% moderate, NFCI -0.552 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally β gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (88% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 80/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 80 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.402) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.402; GEX positive at 3.5B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.7 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $739.28 | 50 SMA $745.07 | 200 SMA $698.54 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $740.99
- QQQ: $682.18 | 50 SMA $718.29 | 200 SMA $643.17 | -0.1% from 50d | ZGL $690.94
- IWM: $293.10 | 50 SMA $291.19 | 200 SMA $264.66 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $293.88
- VIX: 18.67 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.641%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $739.28 | 39.09 | 39.7 | $740.99 | Bearish | 1.76 |
| QQQ | $682.18 | 33.06 | 58.6 | $690.94 | Bearish | 3.22 |
| IWM | $293.10 | 36.34 | 0.0 | $293.88 | Bearish | 2.76 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.67 | 60.58 | 40.7 | $10.52 | Neutral | 0.68 |
| TNX | 46.41 | 70.33 | 13.1 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $374.05 | 41.31 | 25.0 | $371.40 | Bearish | 0.50 |
| DXY | 101.50 | 57.55 | 13.0 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $52.87 | 39.19 | 13.1 | $52.27 | Bearish | 0.42 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.402
- DIX Signal: Weak
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 3.49B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.79% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.34% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 69.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 70.0%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.7%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.5%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 92.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 90.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 85.2% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 82.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 76.1% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 70.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 58.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 52.6% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 46.2% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 45.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $81.91 (5d: -3.5%)
- Brent Crude: $87.68 | Spread: $5.77
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1500/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.9800/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $62.01/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $58.36
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.11
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.918 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.589 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.379 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.474 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.21
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,717,524.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,421,896.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.94 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $675.5B
- Gamma Call Wall: $748 | Put Wall: $740 (Spot: $739.28)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
- Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -16,784 contracts (Z +2.24, as of 2026-07-21)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -12.7% (as of 2026-07-22)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.64%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.84 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.50
- Growth vs Value: 0.92
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.24% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.26%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.28%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6747.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $829.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.4B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,916B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,758B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,903B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,610B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,311 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.402) despite calm surface (VIX 18.7, breadth 70%).
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 147 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~268h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 10 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: acm_term_premium_10y has printed the same value (0.78) for 11 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hormuz_vessels_underway has printed the same value (15) for 5 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 73 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_max_pain has printed the same value (735.0) for 19 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_put_wall has printed the same value (740.0) for 17 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.49%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 75%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.6395 | Prev: 102.5606
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.22 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (β8.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.32 (β17.8% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (β15.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (20):
[1] Indonesian Rupiah: Leadership change at BI sustains rupiah pressure - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesian-rupiah-leadership-change-at-bi-sustains-rupiah-pressure-commerzbank-202607280955 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 09:55:52 GMT
[2] Gold declines, focus on Fed and falling Oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-declines-focus-on-fed-and-falling-oil-prices-202607280951 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 09:51:22 GMT
[3] Kospi circuit breaker and China DUV that looks to threaten ASML moat URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/kospi-circuit-breaker-and-china-duv-that-looks-to-threaten-asml-moat-202607280942 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 09:42:16 GMT
[4] Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC slips below $64,000 as risk-off sentiment grips markets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-price-forecast-btc-slips-below-64-000-as-risk-off-sentiment-grips-markets-202607280933 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 09:33:13 GMT
[5] Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202607280930 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 09:30:36 GMT
[6] US Dollar: Fed hike odds and asymmetric risks - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-fed-hike-odds-and-asymmetric-risks-dbs-202607280930 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 09:30:31 GMT
[7] Nothing in US data to warrant Fed rate hike, markets to be disappointed by Warsh remarks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/nothing-in-us-data-to-warrant-fed-rate-hike-markets-to-be-disappointed-by-warsh-remarks-202607280929 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 09:29:49 GMT
[8] Silver weakens as easing geopolitical tensions weigh on safe-haven demand URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-weakens-as-easing-geopolitical-tensions-weigh-on-safe-haven-demand-202607280928 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 09:28:29 GMT
[9] USD/CHF eyes key 0.8400 resistance URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/usd-chf-eyes-key-08400-resistance-202607280926 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 09:26:33 GMT
[10] Oil: A surplus on the horizon URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/oil-a-surplus-on-the-horizon-202607280923 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 09:23:37 GMT
[11] Singapore Dollar: MAS surprise tightening supports SGD - HSBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-dollar-mas-surprise-tightening-supports-sgd-hsbc-202607280909 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 09:09:40 GMT
[12] Market attention starts to shift towards the Fed URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/market-attention-starts-to-shift-towards-the-fed-202607280905 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 09:05:08 GMT
[13] USD/CAD Price Forecast: Lower oil prices ensure further weakness for Canadian Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-lower-oil-prices-ensure-further-weakness-for-canadian-dollar-202607280902 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 09:02:54 GMT
[14] Four reasons for the fall in WTI and Brent Crude Oil, US indices pessimistic on AI value [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/four-reasons-for-the-fall-in-wti-and-brent-crude-oil-us-indices-pessimistic-on-ai-value-video-202607280853 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 08:53:42 GMT
[15] Australian Dollar: Risk-off and RBA tone weigh on Aussie - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-risk-off-and-rba-tone-weigh-on-aussie-mufg-202607280852 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 08:52:22 GMT
[16] Capital Wallet Greece Secures Landmark MiCA CASP Authorisation, Opening Doors to EU-Wide Expansion URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/capital-wallet-greece-secures-landmark-mica-casp-authorisation-opening-doors-to-eu-wide-expansion-202607280831 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 08:31:31 GMT
[17] Indian Rupee outlook: Downtrend set to persist - Just at a slower pace URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/indian-rupee-outlook-downtrend-set-to-persist-just-at-a-slower-pace-202607280831 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 08:31:15 GMT
[18] Swiss Franc: SNB on hold view boosts funding role - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-snb-on-hold-view-boosts-funding-role-ing-202607280828 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 08:28:42 GMT
[19] Federal Reserve: Close July call keeps Dollar traders data-focused - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/federal-reserve-close-july-call-keeps-dollar-traders-data-focused-bny-202607280815 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 08:15:27 GMT
[20] Italy Trade Balance non-EU down to β¬2.55B in June from previous β¬3.843B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-trade-balance-non-eu-down-to-eur255b-in-june-from-previous-eur3843b-202607280804 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 08:04:36 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (8):
[1] Kremlin calls Ukraine's Caspian Sea strike an attack on Iran Time: 2026-07-28T09:58:04.000Z
[2] Video: Iranians in London protest execution of demonstrators Time: 2026-07-28T09:37:06.559Z
[3] Iran says more than 350 government employees were killed during war Time: 2026-07-28T09:36:58.523Z
[4] Sanctions and blockades must not frighten people, Iran's vice president says Time: 2026-07-28T09:33:35.781Z
[5] Armed forces should respond to attacks with 'many times greater' force, Iran MP says Time: 2026-07-28T09:31:15.300Z
[6] Video: Iran's Isfahan flooded with security forces as protests break out Time: 2026-07-28T08:37:20.082Z
[7] US war knocked out 230 mln cubic metres of gas capacity, Iran government says Time: 2026-07-28T08:00:12.086Z
[8] Iran military adviser threatens retaliation for Supreme Leader's killing Time: 2026-07-28T07:34:21.185Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 150 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily β 16.7% of normal
- Throughput: 14.9% of normal (1.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 500
- Oil Prices: Brent $86.99 (+2.33%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS285 (+470% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost