Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-28 04:01:26 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.0% (3d) | Alignment: 88% (7 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	DIX 0.402 below 0.42 — institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 0.94 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +3.5B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 70% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +3.3% growth optimism · real yield 2.43% restrictive
Correlations	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	SPY/VIX -0.92 normal, SPY/DXY -0.59 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.38 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.47 elevated
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 18.7 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 147 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.40 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 17 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d +0.8% stable, MOVE 77 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.79% moderate, NFCI -0.552 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally — gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (88% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 80/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 80 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.402) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.402; GEX positive at 3.5B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.7 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $739.28 | 50 SMA $745.07 | 200 SMA $698.54 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $740.99
QQQ: $682.18 | 50 SMA $718.29 | 200 SMA $643.17 | -0.1% from 50d | ZGL $690.94
IWM: $293.10 | 50 SMA $291.19 | 200 SMA $264.66 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $293.88
VIX: 18.67 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.641%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$739.28	39.09	39.7	$740.99	Bearish	1.76
QQQ	$682.18	33.06	58.6	$690.94	Bearish	3.22
IWM	$293.10	36.34	0.0	$293.88	Bearish	2.76

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	18.67	60.58	40.7	$10.52	Neutral	0.68
TNX	46.41	70.33	13.1	-	-	-
GLD	$374.05	41.31	25.0	$371.40	Bearish	0.50
DXY	101.50	57.55	13.0	-	-	-
SLV	$52.87	39.19	13.1	$52.27	Bearish	0.42

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.402
DIX Signal: Weak
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 3.49B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.79% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.99%
2s10s Spread: 0.34% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 69.9%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 70.0%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
Mag 7 Concentration: 30.7%
Top 10 Concentration: 40.5%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Financials	92.5%	0/0
Utilities	90.0%	0/0
Health Care	85.2%	0/0
Real Estate	82.1%	0/0
Industrials	76.1%	0/0
Consumer Staples	70.6%	0/0
Materials	58.3%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	55.9%	0/0
Energy	52.6%	0/0
Technology	46.2%	0/0
Communication Services	45.0%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $81.91 (5d: -3.5%)
Brent Crude: $87.68 | Spread: $5.77
RBOB Gasoline: $3.1500/gal
Heating Oil: $3.9800/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $62.01/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $58.36
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.11

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.918	normal
SPY / DXY	-0.589	elevated
SPY / TNX	-0.379	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.474	elevated

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.21
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 4,717,524.0
0DTE Put Volume: 4,421,896.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.94 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $675.5B
Gamma Call Wall: $748 | Put Wall: $740 (Spot: $739.28)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) · below 20,50d

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -16,784 contracts (Z +2.24, as of 2026-07-21)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -12.7% (as of 2026-07-22)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.64%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.84 (Normal)
DXY: 101.50
Growth vs Value: 0.92
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.24% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.26%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.28%
Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6747.4B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $829.6B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.4B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,916B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,783B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,911B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,610B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,400 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.402) despite calm surface (VIX 18.7, breadth 70%).
[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] SKEW at 147 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~268h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~100h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 10 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: acm_term_premium_10y has printed the same value (0.78) for 11 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hormuz_vessels_underway has printed the same value (15) for 5 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 73 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_max_pain has printed the same value (735.0) for 19 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.

Seasonality

Current Month: July
Average Return: +2.49%
Median Return: +2.28%
Hit Rate: 75%
Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Industrial Production: 102.6395 | Prev: 102.5606

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.22 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (↑8.7% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.32 (↑17.8% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (24):

[1] The chip reckoning? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-chip-reckoning-202607280757 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 07:57:08 GMT

[2] Polish Zloty: Political fragmentation clouds zloty outlook - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/polish-zloty-political-fragmentation-clouds-zloty-outlook-commerzbank-202607280755 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 07:55:06 GMT

[3] Nasdaq buying opportunity at strong support [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nasdaq-buying-opportunity-at-strong-support-video-202607280754 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 07:54:47 GMT

[4] Forex Today: US Dollar shows resilience ahead of Fed meeting URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-us-dollar-shows-resilience-ahead-of-fed-meeting-202607280736 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 07:36:33 GMT

[5] US Dollar: Stronger into FOMC on hawkish expectations - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-stronger-into-fomc-on-hawkish-expectations-mufg-202607280725 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 07:25:57 GMT

[6] Visa and Mastercard earnings: How quarterly estimates have evolved URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/visa-and-mastercard-earnings-how-quarterly-estimates-have-evolved-202607280724 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 07:24:24 GMT

[7] Swiss Franc weakens on easing safe-haven demand, US tariffs URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-weakens-on-easing-safe-haven-demand-us-tariffs-202607280721 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 07:21:31 GMT

[8] Gold: Supported by lower oil prices and yields - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-supported-by-lower-oil-prices-and-yields-ing-202607280716 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 07:16:48 GMT

[9] Nasdaq weak, Dow Jones rolling URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/nasdaq-weak-dow-jones-rolling-202607280714 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 07:14:28 GMT

[10] Pepe Price Forecast: Bearish metrics warn of a steeper decline in PEPE URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/pepe-price-forecast-bearish-metrics-warn-of-a-steeper-decline-in-pepe-202607280712 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 07:12:31 GMT

[11] Indonesian Rupiah drops as Bank Indonesia shakeup URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesian-rupiah-drops-as-bank-indonesia-shakeup-202607280705 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 07:05:07 GMT

[12] WTI Oil flirts with the $80 level amid speculation about US-Iran peace talks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-oil-flirts-with-the-80-level-amid-speculation-about-us-iran-peace-talks-202607280704 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 07:04:23 GMT

[13] Singapore Dollar: Energy risks could trigger further tightening - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-dollar-energy-risks-could-trigger-further-tightening-uob-202607280700 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 07:00:50 GMT

[14] Spain Retail Sales (YoY): 0.5% (June) vs previous 1.3% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-retail-sales-yoy-05-june-vs-previous-13-202607280700 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 07:00:29 GMT

[15] Spain Unemployment Survey below expectations (10.7%) in 2Q: Actual (9.87%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-unemployment-survey-below-expectations-107-in-2q-actual-987-202607280700 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 07:00:00 GMT

[16] GBP/USD Price Forecast: Trades vulnerably near 1.3300 ahead of Fed-BoE policy URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-trades-vulnerably-near-13300-ahead-of-fed-boe-policy-202607280659 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 06:59:26 GMT

[17] Equities: China chip competition weighs on global markets - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-china-chip-competition-weighs-on-global-markets-deutsche-bank-202607280649 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 06:49:32 GMT

[18] France Consumer Confidence came in at 86, above expectations (85) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-consumer-confidence-came-in-at-86-above-expectations-85-in-july-202607280645 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 06:45:00 GMT

[19] Oman presents Hormuz fee proposal to Iran URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oman-presents-hormuz-fee-proposal-to-iran-202607280638 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 06:38:07 GMT

[20] Euro stands tall against the British Pound despite the risk-off sentiment URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-stands-tall-against-the-british-pound-despite-the-risk-off-sentiment-202607280630 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 06:30:30 GMT

[21] Brent: Price slide reflects de-escalation hopes - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-price-slide-reflects-de-escalation-hopes-commerzbank-202607280629 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 06:29:15 GMT

[22] CEE: Fuel inflation risks persist URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/cee-fuel-inflation-risks-persist-202607280628 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 06:28:01 GMT

[23] Chip wreck URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/chip-wreck-202607280624 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 06:24:18 GMT

[24] Euro revisits monthly low against US Dollar in countdown to Fed's policy URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-revisits-monthly-low-against-us-dollar-in-countdown-to-feds-policy-202607280605 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 06:05:29 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (2):

[BREAKING] [1] Omani plan would end Iran's sole control of Hormuz - Reuters Time: 2026-07-28T06:30:31.523Z

[2] Iran, Russia in constant contact over Ukraine's Caspian attack, envoy says Time: 2026-07-28T06:18:16.056Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 150 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 15 of 60 normal daily — 17.0% of normal
Throughput: 15.1% of normal (1.6M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 450
Oil Prices: Brent $86.99 (+2.33%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 53.3x normal
Tanker Rates: WS185 (+270% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $18.5 billion/day economic cost