Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-28 08:01:34 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.0% (3d) | Alignment: 88% (7 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	DIX 0.402 below 0.42 — institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 0.94 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +3.5B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 70% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +3.3% growth optimism · real yield 2.43% restrictive
Correlations	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	SPY/VIX -0.92 normal, SPY/DXY -0.59 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.38 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.47 elevated
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 18.7 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 147 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.40 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 17 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d +0.8% stable, MOVE 77 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.79% moderate, NFCI -0.552 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally — gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (88% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 80/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 80 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.402) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.402; GEX positive at 3.5B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.7 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $739.28 | 50 SMA $745.07 | 200 SMA $698.54 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $740.99
QQQ: $682.18 | 50 SMA $718.29 | 200 SMA $643.17 | -0.1% from 50d | ZGL $690.94
IWM: $293.10 | 50 SMA $291.19 | 200 SMA $264.66 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $293.88
VIX: 18.67 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.641%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$739.28	39.09	39.7	$740.99	Bearish	1.76
QQQ	$682.18	33.06	58.6	$690.94	Bearish	3.22
IWM	$293.10	36.34	0.0	$293.88	Bearish	2.76

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	18.67	60.58	40.7	$10.52	Neutral	0.68
TNX	46.41	70.33	13.1	-	-	-
GLD	$374.05	41.31	25.0	$371.40	Bearish	0.50
DXY	101.50	57.55	13.0	-	-	-
SLV	$52.87	39.19	13.1	$52.27	Bearish	0.42

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.402
DIX Signal: Weak
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 3.49B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.79% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.99%
2s10s Spread: 0.34% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 69.9%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 70.0%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
Mag 7 Concentration: 30.7%
Top 10 Concentration: 40.5%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Financials	92.5%	0/0
Utilities	90.0%	0/0
Health Care	85.2%	0/0
Real Estate	82.1%	0/0
Industrials	76.1%	0/0
Consumer Staples	70.6%	0/0
Materials	58.3%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	55.9%	0/0
Energy	52.6%	0/0
Technology	46.2%	0/0
Communication Services	45.0%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $81.91 (5d: -3.5%)
Brent Crude: $87.68 | Spread: $5.77
RBOB Gasoline: $3.1500/gal
Heating Oil: $3.9800/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $62.01/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $58.36
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.11

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.918	normal
SPY / DXY	-0.589	elevated
SPY / TNX	-0.379	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.474	elevated

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.21
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 4,717,524.0
0DTE Put Volume: 4,421,896.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.94 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $675.5B
Gamma Call Wall: $748 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $739.28)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) · below 20,50d

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -16,784 contracts (Z +2.24, as of 2026-07-21)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -12.7% (as of 2026-07-22)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.64%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.84 (Normal)
DXY: 101.50
Growth vs Value: 0.92
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.24% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.26%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.28%
Stagflation Risk Score: 17/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6747.4B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $829.6B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.4B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,916B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,758B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,903B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,577B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,385 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.402) despite calm surface (VIX 18.7, breadth 70%).
[WARNING] SKEW at 147 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 10 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: acm_term_premium_10y has printed the same value (0.78) for 11 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hormuz_vessels_underway has printed the same value (15) for 5 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 73 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_max_pain has printed the same value (735.0) for 19 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_put_wall has printed the same value (740.0) for 17 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_call_wall has printed the same value (750.0) for 18 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
[WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_gamma_flip has printed the same value (746.563209577586) for 17 consecutive trading days — publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.

Seasonality

Current Month: July
Average Return: +2.49%
Median Return: +2.28%
Hit Rate: 75%
Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Industrial Production: 102.6395 | Prev: 102.5606

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.22 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (↑8.7% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.32 (↑17.8% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (24):

[1] PU Prime Expands 24/5 and 24/7 Share CFDs as Global Investors Seek Greater Trading Flexibility URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/pu-prime-expands-24-5-and-24-7-share-cfds-as-global-investors-seek-greater-trading-flexibility-202607281147 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 11:47:26 GMT

[2] British Pound drops against US Dollar, Fed-BoE policy in focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-drops-against-us-dollar-fed-boe-policy-in-focus-202607281137 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 11:37:29 GMT

[3] Brazil Current Account above expectations ($-2.4B) in June: Actual ($-2.33B) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazil-current-account-above-expectations-24b-in-june-actual-233b-202607281131 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 11:31:57 GMT

[4] Bitcoin price prediction: Is $60K back in focus as headwinds mount? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-price-prediction-is-60k-back-in-focus-as-headwinds-mount-202607281129 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 11:29:33 GMT

[5] Australian Dollar: Inflation risks keep hike debate alive - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-inflation-risks-keep-hike-debate-alive-td-securities-202607281127 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 11:27:50 GMT

[6] Markets migrated higher, mainly URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/markets-migrated-higher-mainly-202607281125 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 11:25:49 GMT

[7] EUR/USD Price Forecast: Under pressure with YTD lows at 1.1324 coming closer URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-under-pressure-with-ytd-lows-at-11324-coming-closer-202607281121 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 11:21:41 GMT

[8] $4,000: Gold's key support faces a crucial Fed test URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/4-000-golds-key-support-faces-a-crucial-fed-test-202607281114 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 11:14:24 GMT

[9] CEE FX: Normalising rates leave room for gains - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/cee-fx-normalising-rates-leave-room-for-gains-ing-202607281109 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 11:09:03 GMT

[10] Oil falls further, China claims chip break-through, and market contemplates Fed hike tomorrow URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/oil-falls-further-china-claims-chip-break-through-and-market-contemplates-fed-hike-tomorrow-202607281103 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 11:03:28 GMT

[11] Dollar rally resumes? Weighs on Gold and Crypto, USD/JPY eyes 165, CHF keeps weakening [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/dollar-rally-resumes-weighs-on-gold-and-crypto-usd-jpy-eyes-165-chf-keeps-weakening-video-202607281102 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 11:02:20 GMT

[12] Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP remain under pressure as risk-off sentiment persists URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-today-bitcoin-ethereum-xrp-remain-under-pressure-as-risk-off-sentiment-persists-202607281100 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 11:00:00 GMT

[13] India Cumulative Industrial Output increased to 5.8% in June from previous 5.1% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-cumulative-industrial-output-increased-to-58-in-june-from-previous-51-202607281055 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 10:55:39 GMT

[14] India Industrial Output above forecasts (5.6%) in June: Actual (7.3%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-industrial-output-above-forecasts-56-in-june-actual-73-202607281055 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 10:55:35 GMT

[15] India Manufacturing Output up to 7.8% in June from previous 5.5% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-manufacturing-output-up-to-78-in-june-from-previous-55-202607281055 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 10:55:28 GMT

[16] Australian Dollar underperforms after RBA Bullock's remarks on economy URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-underperforms-after-rba-bullocks-remarks-on-economy-202607281054 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 10:54:08 GMT

[17] Japanese Yen stays range-bound as Fed, BoJ seen on hold but hawkish URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-stays-range-bound-as-fed-boj-seen-on-hold-but-hawkish-202607281053 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 10:53:21 GMT

[18] Perpetuals tied to SK Hynix hit by flash crash to $900 on Hyperliquid URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/perpetuals-tied-to-sk-hynix-hit-by-flash-crash-to-900-on-hyperliquid-202607281042 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 10:42:24 GMT

[19] Bank of Japan preview: The slow path to higher rates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/bank-of-japan-preview-the-slow-path-to-higher-rates-202607281041 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 10:41:16 GMT

[20] Bitcoin has failed to break away from its long-term trend URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-has-failed-to-break-away-from-its-long-term-trend-202607281034 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 10:34:17 GMT

[21] AI trade loses momentum, as LVMH fails to impress URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ai-trade-loses-momentum-as-lvmh-fails-to-impress-202607281029 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 10:29:37 GMT

[22] Is the US Natural Gas undervalued? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/is-the-us-natural-gas-undervalued-202607281012 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 10:12:33 GMT

[23] Pi Network Price Forecast: PI declines further, risking fresh record lows URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/pi-network-price-forecast-pi-declines-further-risking-fresh-record-lows-202607281009 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 10:09:58 GMT

[24] Green nuclear bonds: The new kid on the block URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/green-nuclear-bonds-the-new-kid-on-the-block-202607281002 Published: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 10:02:46 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (3):

[1] Three Isfahan protesters face imminent execution, source says Time: 2026-07-28T11:29:55.482Z

[2] Iranian protesters' executions stir grief and harden resolve across Iran Time: 2026-07-28T10:07:25.225Z

[3] Video: Heavy security grips Isfahan square hours after protesters executed Time: 2026-07-28T10:06:19.887Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 150 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 12 of 60 normal daily — 20.0% of normal
Throughput: 14.6% of normal (1.5M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 450
Oil Prices: Brent $86.99 (+2.33%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 56.7x normal
Tanker Rates: WS372 (+644% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost