Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-10 14:11:46 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -1.0% (3d) | Alignment: 43% (3 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.479 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.16 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +5.1B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 36% β narrow participation, rally is fragile |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold -0.9% neutral Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.87 normal, SPY/DXY -0.38 normal, SPY/TNX -0.47 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.51 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 17.7 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.69 dealer stress |
| Inflation | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Stagflation score 26 β moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -0.9% stable, MOVE 77 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.71% moderate, NFCI -0.564 loose |
Divergence read: Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price.
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 65/100 (Mixed) | Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $102, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.479; GEX positive at 5.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.7 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $757.63 | 50 SMA $758.02 | 200 SMA $713.18 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $761.08
- QQQ: $709.24 | 50 SMA $711.17 | 200 SMA $658.90 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $712.93
- IWM: $287.36 | 50 SMA $296.74 | 200 SMA $273.27 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $294.44
- VIX: 17.72 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.946%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $757.63 | 43.46 | 15.4 | $761.08 | Bearish | 2.81 |
| QQQ | $709.24 | 50.20 | 16.0 | $712.93 | Bearish | 2.34 |
| IWM | $287.36 | 32.02 | 10.9 | $294.44 | Bearish | 5.64 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.72 | 52.48 | 22.7 | $11.06 | Neutral | 0.92 |
| TNX | 49.46 βΌ | 70.44 | 20.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $398.21 | 43.07 | 37.0 | $402.98 | Bearish | 4.93 |
| DXY | 99.00 | 51.56 | 37.3 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $57.66 | 52.29 | 10.3 | $45.97 | Neutral | 1.01 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.479
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.12B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 35.5%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 57.1%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 496
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.4%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.8%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 89.5% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 59.3% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 57.9% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 38.2% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 33.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 27.1% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 26.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 13.3% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 11.9% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 7.7% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $102.07 (5d: +11.8%)
- Brent Crude: $107.43 | Spread: $5.36
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1900/gal
- Heating Oil: $5.0600/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.09/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $65.17
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.19
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.871 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.375 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.467 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.508 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.74
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,524,144.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 2,938,662.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.16 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $413.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $770 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $757.63)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -75,941 contracts (Z +0.70, as of 2026-09-01)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -1.3% (as of 2026-09-09)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.95%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.10 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.00
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.41% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.37%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 26/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6737.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $967.9B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,769B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,861B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,179B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,809B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,216 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $102.07 β triple-digit oil, severe stagflation and margin pressure.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $102.07 β energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $158.25 (vs 20d avg 134.06, +3.4Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 149 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] SPY (759.03) dropped below ZGL (761.65) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] SPY (758.83) reclaimed ZGL (751.22) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [INFO] Screener: 5 fresh PRIMED high-conviction name(s) for 2026-09-10 β SGI (conviction 70/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=5916)); LECO (conviction 70/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=5916)); NBIS (conviction 68/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=5916)); ANF (conviction 68/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=5916)); FCX (conviction 68/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=5916)). Calibrated setups only; decision-support, not advice.
- [INFO] Screener: PK β promotion-ready (100d on list, HIGH conviction 62/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 48% (n=3039)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.58%
- Median Return: +0.30%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 284.057 | Prev: 286.279
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β3.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β6.8% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
No new articles found since last report.
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] IRGC commander says Iran nearing shift to offensive operations Time: 2026-09-10T17:53:06.680Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 194 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 4 of 60 normal daily β 7.0% of normal
- Throughput: 5.9% of normal (0.6M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 127
- Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 50.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS380 (+660% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost