Skip to content
← Archive

2026-W37

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-10 14:06:13 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -1.0% (3d) | Alignment: 43% (3 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β€” Moderate divergence β€” several structural signals disagree with price

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED DIX 0.479 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.16 put-heavy
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT GEX +5.1B strong suppression
Breadth πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED Breadth 36% β€” narrow participation, rally is fragile
Energy πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED Energy RISING β€” oil climbing, margin pressure building
growth_expectations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Copper/Gold -0.9% neutral Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive
Correlations 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT SPY/VIX -0.87 normal, SPY/DXY -0.37 normal, SPY/TNX -0.45 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.50 elevated
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 17.6 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.69 dealer stress
Inflation βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Stagflation score 26 β€” moderate, watching
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT USD/JPY 5d -0.9% stable, MOVE 77 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT HY OAS 2.71% moderate, NFCI -0.564 loose

Divergence read: Moderate divergence β€” several structural signals disagree with price.

Market Status

Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 66/100 (Mixed) | Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $102, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.479; GEX positive at 5.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.6 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $757.80 | 50 SMA $758.02 | 200 SMA $713.18 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $761.12
  • QQQ: $709.29 | 50 SMA $711.17 | 200 SMA $658.90 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $715.66
  • IWM: $287.47 | 50 SMA $296.74 | 200 SMA $273.27 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $294.48
  • VIX: 17.65 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.944%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $757.80 43.46 15.4 $761.12 Bearish 3.55
QQQ $709.29 50.20 16.0 $715.66 Bearish 2.38
IWM $287.47 32.02 10.9 $294.48 Bearish 5.58

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 17.65 52.48 22.7 $11.08 Neutral 0.93
TNX 49.44 70.44 20.8 - - -
GLD $398.68 43.07 37.0 $402.96 Bearish 4.68
DXY 98.99 51.44 37.2 - - -
SLV $57.85 52.29 10.3 $45.97 Neutral 0.99

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.479
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.12B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.99%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 35.5%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 57.1%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 496
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 32.4%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 41.8%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Energy 89.5% 0/0
Health Care 59.3% 0/0
Communication Services 57.9% 0/0
Technology 53.8% 0/0
Financials 38.2% 0/0
Materials 33.3% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 27.1% 0/0
Consumer Staples 26.5% 0/0
Utilities 13.3% 0/0
Industrials 11.9% 0/0
Real Estate 7.7% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: RISING
  • WTI Crude: $101.95 (5d: +11.7%)
  • Brent Crude: $107.39 | Spread: $5.44
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.1900/gal
  • Heating Oil: $5.0700/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.35/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $65.10
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $10.14

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.869 normal
SPY / DXY -0.371 normal
SPY / TNX -0.454 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.5 elevated

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.74
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 2,483,296.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 2,878,939.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.16 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $406.4B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $770 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $757.80)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
  • Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -75,941 contracts (Z +0.70, as of 2026-09-01)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -1.3% (as of 2026-09-09)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.94%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.10 (Normal)
  • DXY: 98.99
  • Growth vs Value: 0.94
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.41% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.37%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 26/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6737.2B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $967.9B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,769B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,861B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,179B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,809B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,216 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $101.95 β€” triple-digit oil, severe stagflation and margin pressure.
  • [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $101.95 β€” energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
  • [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $157.52 (vs 20d avg 134.06, +3.3Οƒ), floor $75.00 β€” potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
  • [WARNING] SKEW at 149 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [WARNING] SPY (759.03) dropped below ZGL (761.65) β€” expect amplified downside moves.
  • [INFO] SPY (758.83) reclaimed ZGL (751.22) β€” volatility dampening resumes.
  • [INFO] Screener: 5 fresh PRIMED high-conviction name(s) for 2026-09-10 β€” SGI (conviction 70/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=5916)); LECO (conviction 70/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=5916)); NBIS (conviction 68/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=5916)); ANF (conviction 68/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=5916)); FCX (conviction 68/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=5916)). Calibrated setups only; decision-support, not advice.
  • [INFO] Screener: PK β€” promotion-ready (100d on list, HIGH conviction 62/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 48% (n=3039)).
  • [INFO] Screener: MUR β€” promotion-ready (99d on list, HIGH conviction 67/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated positioning_extreme hit-rate 55% (n=185)).

Seasonality

  • Current Month: September
  • Average Return: -0.58%
  • Median Return: +0.30%
  • Hit Rate: 55%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 284.057 | Prev: 286.279

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (↓3.4% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (↑5.3% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓6.8% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

No new articles found since last report.

Iran War News

Updates (1):

[1] IRGC commander says Iran nearing shift to offensive operations Time: 2026-09-10T17:53:06.680Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 194 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 4 of 60 normal daily β€” 7.0% of normal
  • Throughput: 5.9% of normal (0.6M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 127
  • Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 50.0x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS380 (+660% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost