Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-08 08:32:08 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.5% (3d) | Alignment: 20% (1 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.476 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.11 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +8.4B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 48% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +1.9% stable Β· real yield 2.42% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.77 normal, SPY/DXY -0.35 normal, SPY/TNX -0.45 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.48 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.6 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 152 high Β· VVIX/VIX 5.37 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 24 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -3.9% yen strengthening, MOVE 73 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.65% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose |
Divergence read: Cautious regime with SPY slipping, but gamma, correlations, and inflation flash bullish β 4 of 5 signals refuse to confirm the decline. Watch for: breadth falling below 40% (bearish resolution).
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 71/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 71 (Favorable) but regime is CAUTIOUS β breadth at 48% keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.476; GEX positive at 8.4B (vol-suppressing); breadth rising to 48% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.6 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: DLR, ARWR, PFE
- Shorts: VTRS, RJF
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 14% (n=176) | 3d 37% (n=176) | 5d 33% (n=176)
- Screener Board Record: 337 closed (hit rate 47%) Β· 159 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $768.56 | 50 SMA $756.86 | 200 SMA $712.15 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $770.44
- QQQ: $719.81 | 50 SMA $711.09 | 200 SMA $657.71 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $595.0
- IWM: $295.15 | 50 SMA $297.01 | 200 SMA $272.68 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $295.85
- VIX: 15.60 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.784%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $768.56 | 47.52 | 18.0 | $770.44 | Neutral | 1.07 |
| QQQ | $719.81 | 42.07 | 22.3 | $595.00 | Neutral | 0.95 |
| IWM | $295.15 | 36.92 | 10.4 | $295.85 | Neutral | 1.06 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.60 | 46.66 | 20.2 | $11.06 | Neutral | 1.37 |
| TNX | 47.84 | 56.41 | 21.9 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $403.67 | 50.73 | 37.6 | $350.00 | Neutral | 0.77 |
| DXY | 98.95 | 40.38 | 35.6 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $59.76 | 50.68 | 12.8 | $43.00 | Neutral | 0.70 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.476
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.4B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.65% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.41% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 48.2%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 66.7%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 496
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.3%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.8%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 94.7% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 75.9% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 73.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 66.2% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 56.9% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 39.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 32.4% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 19.4% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 15.4% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $93.94 (5d: +4.1%)
- Brent Crude: $98.75 | Spread: $4.81
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0700/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.6300/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.84/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $64.06
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.56
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.771 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.354 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.454 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.477 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.10
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.11 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $553.3B
- Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $768.56)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -75,941 contracts (Z +0.70, as of 2026-09-01)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.1% (as of 2026-09-02)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.78%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.95
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.37% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6737.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $967.9B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,769B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,879B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,182B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,829B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $78,335 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] USD/JPY 5d RoC at -3.9% β yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $141.96 (vs 20d avg 131.94, +1.8Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 152 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~268h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~124h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 39 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: acm_term_premium_10y has printed the same value (0.88) for 5 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hormuz_insurance_multiplier has printed the same value (56.7) for 5 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.50%
- Median Return: +0.50%
- Hit Rate: 60%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β7.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (4):
[1] British Pound: Sterling faces fiscal and BoE risks - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-sterling-faces-fiscal-and-boe-risks-rabobank-202609081226 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 12:26:29 GMT
[2] Useless Price Forecast: USELESS poised for another breakout as Korea's Upbit exchange announces listing URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/useless-price-forecast-useless-poised-for-another-breakout-as-koreas-upbit-exchange-announces-listing-202609081225 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 12:25:28 GMT
[3] Euro: Downside risks against US Dollar into ECB and Fed - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-downside-risks-against-us-dollar-into-ecb-and-fed-ing-202609081216 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 12:16:39 GMT
[4] GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Oversold conditions help buyers regain ground URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-jpy-price-forecast-oversold-conditions-help-buyers-regain-ground-202609081207 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 12:07:40 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Saudi foreign minister says Houthis 'opened a door they cannot handle' Time: 2026-09-08T12:02:59.219Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 192 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 12 of 60 normal daily β 20.0% of normal
- Throughput: 12.2% of normal (1.3M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 300
- Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS475 (+850% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $1.8 billion/day economic cost