Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-08 08:02:37 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.4% (3d) | Alignment: 20% (1 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.476 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.11 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +8.4B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 48% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +0.6% stable Β· real yield 2.42% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.77 normal, SPY/DXY -0.35 normal, SPY/TNX -0.45 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.48 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.3 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 152 high Β· VVIX/VIX 5.52 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 24 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -3.8% yen strengthening, MOVE 73 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.65% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose |
Divergence read: Cautious regime with SPY slipping, but gamma, correlations, and inflation flash bullish β 4 of 5 signals refuse to confirm the decline. Watch for: breadth falling below 40% (bearish resolution).
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 71/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 71 (Favorable) but regime is CAUTIOUS β breadth at 48% keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.476; GEX positive at 8.4B (vol-suppressing); breadth rising to 48% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.3 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $769.55 | 50 SMA $756.86 | 200 SMA $712.15 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $772.57
- QQQ: $717.54 | 50 SMA $711.09 | 200 SMA $657.71 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $595.0
- IWM: $295.01 | 50 SMA $297.01 | 200 SMA $272.68 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $250.0
- VIX: 15.30 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.784%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $769.55 | 47.52 | 18.0 | $772.57 | None | None |
| QQQ | $717.54 | 42.07 | 22.3 | $595.00 | None | None |
| IWM | $295.01 | 36.92 | 10.4 | $250.00 | None | None |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.30 | 46.66 | 20.2 | $10.50 | None | None |
| TNX | 47.84 | 56.41 | 21.9 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $406.53 | 50.73 | 37.6 | $350.00 | None | None |
| DXY | 99.18 | 43.08 | 34.7 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $59.87 | 50.68 | 12.8 | $44.76 | None | None |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.476
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.4B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.65% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.41% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 48.2%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 66.7%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 496
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.3%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.8%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 94.7% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 75.9% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 73.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 66.2% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 56.9% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 39.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 32.4% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 19.4% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 15.4% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $92.61 (5d: +2.6%)
- Brent Crude: $97.24 | Spread: $4.63
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0300/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.6700/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.61/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $64.06
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.56
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.771 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.354 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.454 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.477 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.10
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.11 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $553.3B
- Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $769.55)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -75,941 contracts (Z +0.70, as of 2026-09-01)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.1% (as of 2026-09-02)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.78%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.03 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.18
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.37% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6737.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $967.9B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,769B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,879B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,182B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,829B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $78,355 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] USD/JPY 5d RoC at -3.8% β yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $141.96 (vs 20d avg 131.94, +1.8Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 152 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~268h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~124h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 39 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: acm_term_premium_10y has printed the same value (0.88) for 5 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hormuz_insurance_multiplier has printed the same value (56.7) for 5 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.50%
- Median Return: +0.50%
- Hit Rate: 60%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β7.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (20):
[1] Oil: Supply shocks lift price risks - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-supply-shocks-lift-price-risks-bny-202609081156 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 11:56:44 GMT
[2] Canadian Dollar eases from highs as risk aversion buoys the US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-eases-from-highs-as-risk-aversion-buoys-the-us-dollar-202609081153 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 11:53:29 GMT
[3] Jobs blowout meets Oil shock: Bonds sell off as Fed remains between a rock and hard place URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/jobs-blowout-meets-oil-shock-bonds-sell-off-as-fed-remains-between-a-rock-and-hard-place-202609081151 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 11:51:56 GMT
[4] Bitcoin ETFs are still $1 billion shy of breaking even in 2026 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-etfs-are-still-1-billion-shy-of-breaking-even-in-2026-202609081150 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 11:50:55 GMT
[5] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD consolidates below mid-1.3500s URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-usd-consolidates-below-mid-13500s-202609081146 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 11:46:42 GMT
[6] Australian Dollar: RBA inflation focus underpins carry - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-rba-inflation-focus-underpins-carry-bbh-202609081136 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 11:36:56 GMT
[7] Ripple Price Forecast: XRP eyes $1.40 breakout as bullish positions build URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ripple-price-forecast-xrp-eyes-140-breakout-as-bullish-positions-build-202609081130 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 11:30:00 GMT
[8] Gold reverses early gains as US Dollar rebounds, Oil prices rise URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-reverses-early-gains-as-us-dollar-rebounds-oil-prices-rise-202609081126 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 11:26:33 GMT
[9] Copper hits record highs amid US tariffs and supply concerns URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/copper-hits-record-highs-amid-us-tariffs-and-supply-concerns-202609081116 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 11:16:38 GMT
[10] Japanese Yen: Carry unwind supports gains against US Dollar - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-carry-unwind-supports-gains-against-us-dollar-ing-202609081114 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 11:14:03 GMT
[11] EUR/USD Price Forecast: Remains sticky to 20-day EMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-remains-sticky-to-20-day-ema-202609081112 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 11:12:15 GMT
[12] PU Prime Mobilises Earthquake Relief Efforts for Affected Community in ChocΓ³, Colombia URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/pu-prime-mobilises-earthquake-relief-efforts-for-affected-community-in-choco-colombia-202609081111 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 11:11:41 GMT
[13] Yen carry unwind: Five equity-market fault lines to watch URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/yen-carry-unwind-five-equity-market-fault-lines-to-watch-202609081107 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 11:07:08 GMT
[14] Top Altcoins Price Forecast: Ripple, Cardano, Solana extend consolidation as bullish momentum fades URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/top-altcoins-price-forecast-ripple-cardano-solana-extend-consolidation-as-bullish-momentum-fades-202609081106 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 11:06:04 GMT
[15] Chile Core Consumer Price Index (Inflation) (MoM): 0.4% (August) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/chile-core-consumer-price-index-inflation-mom-04-august-202609081101 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 11:01:04 GMT
[16] Chile Consumer Price Index (Inflation) (MoM) came in at 0.6%, above forecasts (0.3%) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/chile-consumer-price-index-inflation-mom-came-in-at-06-above-forecasts-03-in-august-202609081100 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 11:00:12 GMT
[17] Inflation risks keep interest rates high URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/inflation-risks-keep-interest-rates-high-202609081056 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 10:56:12 GMT
[18] Forex trading US Nonfarm Payrolls: Can we trust the data? Brent Crude Oil at $100 again [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/forex-trading-us-nonfarm-payrolls-can-we-trust-the-data-brent-crude-oil-at-100-again-video-202609081051 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 10:51:28 GMT
[19] Job numbers don't propel markets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/job-numbers-dont-propel-markets-202609081048 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 10:48:36 GMT
[20] New Bitcoin whales spark sell-side risk as unrealized gains hit $9B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/new-bitcoin-whales-spark-sell-side-risk-as-unrealized-gains-hit-9b-202609081007 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 10:07:10 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (10):
[1] Basij commander killed in attack in southeastern Iran Time: 2026-09-08T11:34:12.285Z
[2] Australian lawmakers back Prince Pahlavi role in Iran transition Time: 2026-09-08T10:51:53.723Z
[3] Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia are counterproductive, Lavrov says Time: 2026-09-08T10:50:39.396Z
[4] Direct flights between Bushehr and Dubai to begin September 11, Iran official says Time: 2026-09-08T10:42:58.725Z
[5] Australia's opposition backs Iranians, invites Prince Pahlavi Time: 2026-09-08T10:38:11.613Z
[6] Pakistan condemns Houthi attacks on Saudi civilian, energy sites Time: 2026-09-08T10:21:03.889Z
[7] CCTV captures deadly tanker crash on Iran road Time: 2026-09-08T10:13:59.351Z
[8] Iran confirms detention of cleric who called for replacing Islamic Republic Time: 2026-09-08T10:12:51.500Z
[9] Iraq in talks with US-Qatari consortium over Basra-Baniyas oil pipeline Time: 2026-09-08T10:11:11.837Z
[10] Four Saudi airstrikes hit Yemen's Marib - Houthi-run media Time: 2026-09-08T10:06:39.327Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 192 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 12 of 60 normal daily β 20.0% of normal
- Throughput: 12.2% of normal (1.3M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 300
- Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS475 (+850% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $1.8 billion/day economic cost