Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-07 22:01:54 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.6% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (5 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.476 above 0.45 and rising β institutions accumulating, 0DTE PCR 1.11 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +8.4B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 48% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +0.6% stable Β· real yield 2.42% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.78 normal, SPY/DXY -0.35 normal, SPY/TNX -0.43 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.48 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.3 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 152 high Β· VVIX/VIX 5.52 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 24 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -3.8% yen strengthening, MOVE 73 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.65% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose |
Divergence read: Cautious regime but dark pool, gamma, and correlations are turning bullish β if structural signals confirm, this becomes a legitimate lean.
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 71/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 71 (Favorable) but regime is CAUTIOUS β breadth at 48% keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX rising to 0.476 (institutional accumulation increasing); GEX positive at 8.4B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 48% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.3 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $769.55 | 50 SMA $756.86 | 200 SMA $712.15 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $772.57
- QQQ: $717.54 | 50 SMA $711.09 | 200 SMA $657.71 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $595.0
- IWM: $295.01 | 50 SMA $297.01 | 200 SMA $272.68 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $250.0
- VIX: 15.30 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.784%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $769.55 | 47.52 | 18.0 | $772.57 | None | None |
| QQQ | $717.54 | 42.07 | 22.3 | $595.00 | None | None |
| IWM | $295.01 | 36.92 | 10.4 | $250.00 | None | None |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.30 | 46.66 | 20.2 | $10.50 | None | None |
| TNX | 47.84 | 56.41 | 21.9 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $406.53 | 50.73 | 37.6 | $350.00 | None | None |
| DXY | 99.18 | 43.08 | 34.7 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $59.87 | 50.68 | 12.8 | $44.76 | None | None |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.476
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.4B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.65% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.41% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 48.2%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 66.7%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 496
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.3%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.8%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 94.7% | 18/19 |
| Health Care | 75.9% | 41/54 |
| Communication Services | 73.7% | 14/19 |
| Financials | 66.2% | 45/68 |
| Technology | 56.9% | 37/65 |
| Materials | 50.0% | 12/24 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 39.0% | 23/59 |
| Consumer Staples | 32.4% | 11/34 |
| Industrials | 19.4% | 13/67 |
| Real Estate | 15.4% | 4/26 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 3/30 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $92.61 (5d: +2.6%)
- Brent Crude: $97.24 | Spread: $4.63
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0300/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.6700/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.61/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $64.06
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.56
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.777 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.355 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.429 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.484 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.10
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.11 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $553.3B
- Gamma Call Wall: $760 | Put Wall: $780 (Spot: $769.55)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -75,941 contracts (Z +0.70, as of 2026-09-01)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.1% (as of 2026-09-02)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.78%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.03 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.18
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: N/A
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.37% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6737.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $967.9B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,769B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,879B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,182B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,829B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $79,417 β² (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $141.96 (vs 20d avg 130.74, +1.9Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 152 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~193h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [INFO] Screener: NDSN β promotion-ready (24d on list, HIGH conviction 62/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 47% (n=2816)).
- [INFO] Screener: TMUS β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 68/100, regime range_noise, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 48% (n=10182)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: KRYS β promotion-ready (29d on list, HIGH conviction 73/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5481)).
- [INFO] Screener: KRYS β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 73/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5481)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: CF β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 76/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5481)). Worth a look.
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.50%
- Median Return: +0.50%
- Hit Rate: 60%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β7.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (11):
[1] US Dollar Index (DXY) struggles below 99.00, two-week low as traders eye US inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-dxy-struggles-below-9900-two-week-low-as-traders-eye-us-inflation-data-202609080157 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 01:57:49 GMT
[2] Canadian Dollar gains as US Dollar struggles despite rising Fed rate hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-gains-as-us-dollar-struggles-despite-rising-fed-rate-hike-bets-202609080157 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 01:57:37 GMT
[3] British Pound drifts higher to near 1.3550 on UK fiscal discipline pledges URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-drifts-higher-to-near-13550-on-uk-fiscal-discipline-pledges-202609080138 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 01:38:51 GMT
[4] Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence declined to -8 in August from previous -6 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-national-australia-banks-business-confidence-declined-to-8-in-august-from-previous-6-202609080130 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 01:30:01 GMT
[5] Australia National Australia Bank's Business Conditions dipped from previous 4 to -1 in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-national-australia-banks-business-conditions-dipped-from-previous-4-to-1-in-august-202609080130 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 01:30:00 GMT
[6] WTI slips below $90.50 despite rising Middle East supply risks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-slips-below-9050-despite-rising-middle-east-supply-risks-202609080121 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 01:21:52 GMT
[7] Bitcoin whale profits hit record $9.07B, long-term holders increase on-chain activity URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-whale-profits-hit-record-907b-long-term-holders-increase-on-chain-activity-202609080120 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 01:20:07 GMT
[8] Japanese Yen rallies to February 18 high as upbeat wage data and GDP lift BoJ hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-rallies-to-february-18-high-as-upbeat-wage-data-and-gdp-lift-boj-hike-bets-202609080116 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 01:16:12 GMT
[9] PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7804 vs. 6.7795 previous URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pboc-sets-usd-cny-reference-rate-at-67804-vs-67795-previous-202609080115 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 01:15:35 GMT
[10] Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence down to -5.2% in September from previous 6% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-westpac-consumer-confidence-down-to-52-in-september-from-previous-6-202609080112 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 01:12:32 GMT
[11] Euro holds gains above 1.1600 on ECB tightening prospects URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-holds-gains-above-11600-on-ecb-tightening-prospects-202609080039 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:39:21 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Trump predicts gas below $2 after US victory over Iran Time: 2026-09-08T00:45:39.973Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 191 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 12 of 60 normal daily β 20.0% of normal
- Throughput: 2.5% of normal (0.0M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 250
- Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS342 (+584% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost