Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-07 20:01:37 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.6% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (5 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.476 above 0.45 and rising β institutions accumulating, 0DTE PCR 1.11 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +8.4B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 48% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +0.6% stable Β· real yield 2.42% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.78 normal, SPY/DXY -0.35 normal, SPY/TNX -0.43 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.48 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.3 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 152 high Β· VVIX/VIX 5.52 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 24 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -3.8% yen strengthening, MOVE 73 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.65% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose |
Divergence read: Cautious regime but dark pool, gamma, and correlations are turning bullish β if structural signals confirm, this becomes a legitimate lean.
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 71/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 71 (Favorable) but regime is CAUTIOUS β breadth at 48% keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX rising to 0.476 (institutional accumulation increasing); GEX positive at 8.4B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 48% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.3 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $769.55 | 50 SMA $756.86 | 200 SMA $712.15 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $772.57
- QQQ: $717.54 | 50 SMA $711.09 | 200 SMA $657.71 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $595.0
- IWM: $295.01 | 50 SMA $297.01 | 200 SMA $272.68 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $250.0
- VIX: 15.30 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.784%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $769.55 | 47.52 | 18.0 | $772.57 | None | None |
| QQQ | $717.54 | 42.07 | 22.3 | $595.00 | None | None |
| IWM | $295.01 | 36.92 | 10.4 | $250.00 | None | None |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.30 | 46.66 | 20.2 | $10.50 | None | None |
| TNX | 47.84 | 56.41 | 21.9 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $406.53 | 50.73 | 37.6 | $350.00 | None | None |
| DXY | 99.18 | 43.08 | 34.7 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $59.87 | 50.68 | 12.8 | $44.76 | None | None |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.476
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.4B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.65% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.41% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 48.2%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 66.7%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 496
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.3%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.8%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 94.7% | 18/19 |
| Health Care | 75.9% | 41/54 |
| Communication Services | 73.7% | 14/19 |
| Financials | 66.2% | 45/68 |
| Technology | 56.9% | 37/65 |
| Materials | 50.0% | 12/24 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 39.0% | 23/59 |
| Consumer Staples | 32.4% | 11/34 |
| Industrials | 19.4% | 13/67 |
| Real Estate | 15.4% | 4/26 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 3/30 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $92.61 (5d: +2.6%)
- Brent Crude: $97.24 | Spread: $4.63
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0300/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.6700/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.61/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $64.06
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.56
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.777 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.355 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.429 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.484 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.10
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.11 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $553.3B
- Gamma Call Wall: $760 | Put Wall: $780 (Spot: $769.55)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -75,941 contracts (Z +0.70, as of 2026-09-01)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.1% (as of 2026-09-02)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.78%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.03 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.18
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: N/A
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.37% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6737.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $967.9B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,769B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,879B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,182B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,829B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $79,088 β² (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $141.96 (vs 20d avg 130.74, +1.9Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 152 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~193h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [INFO] Screener: NDSN β promotion-ready (24d on list, HIGH conviction 62/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 47% (n=2816)).
- [INFO] Screener: TMUS β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 68/100, regime range_noise, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 48% (n=10182)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: KRYS β promotion-ready (29d on list, HIGH conviction 73/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5481)).
- [INFO] Screener: KRYS β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 73/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5481)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: CF β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 76/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5481)). Worth a look.
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.50%
- Median Return: +0.50%
- Hit Rate: 60%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β7.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (15):
[1] Japan Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) meets expectations (2.6%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-gross-domestic-product-deflator-yoy-meets-expectations-26-in-2q-202609072359 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 23:59:13 GMT
[2] Japan Gross Domestic Product Annualized came in at 1.4%, above expectations (1.1%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-gross-domestic-product-annualized-came-in-at-14-above-expectations-11-in-2q-202609072354 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 23:54:58 GMT
[3] Japan Current Account n.s.a. above expectations (Β₯2870B) in July: Actual (Β₯2988B) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-current-account-nsa-above-expectations-y2870b-in-july-actual-y2988b-202609072354 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 23:54:47 GMT
[4] Japan Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) in line with forecasts (0.4%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-gross-domestic-product-qoq-in-line-with-forecasts-04-in-2q-202609072354 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 23:54:14 GMT
[5] Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis dipped from previous Β₯-135.2B to Β₯-399.9B in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-trade-balance-bop-basis-dipped-from-previous-y-1352b-to-y-3999b-in-july-202609072354 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 23:54:03 GMT
[6] Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis rose from previous Β₯-135.2B to Β₯399.9B in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-trade-balance-bop-basis-rose-from-previous-y-1352b-to-y3999b-in-july-202609072353 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 23:53:56 GMT
[7] Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) came in at 4.7%, above expectations (3.9%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-labor-cash-earnings-yoy-came-in-at-47-above-expectations-39-in-july-202609072348 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 23:48:49 GMT
[8] Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) below expectations (3.9%) in July: Actual (3.7%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-labor-cash-earnings-yoy-below-expectations-39-in-july-actual-37-202609072348 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 23:48:46 GMT
[9] South Korea Gross Domestic Product Growth (QoQ) meets forecasts (0.6%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korea-gross-domestic-product-growth-qoq-meets-forecasts-06-in-2q-202609072348 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 23:48:37 GMT
[10] South Korea Gross Domestic Product Growth (YoY) in line with expectations (3.7%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korea-gross-domestic-product-growth-yoy-in-line-with-expectations-37-in-2q-202609072348 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 23:48:28 GMT
[11] Gold declines to near $4,400 as robust US jobs data lifts Fed hike odds URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-declines-to-near-4-400-as-robust-us-jobs-data-lifts-fed-hike-odds-202609072326 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 23:26:33 GMT
[12] Citi Survey sees Banxico frozen as Peso holds below 18.00 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/citi-survey-sees-banxico-frozen-as-peso-holds-below-1800-202609072304 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 23:04:52 GMT
[13] United Kingdom BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY) below forecasts (1.2%) in August: Actual (0.5%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-brc-like-for-like-retail-sales-yoy-below-forecasts-12-in-august-actual-05-202609072302 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 23:02:16 GMT
[14] Colombia Consumer Price Index (MoM) above forecasts (0.26%) in August: Actual (0.39%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/colombia-consumer-price-index-mom-above-forecasts-026-in-august-actual-039-202609072300 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 23:00:22 GMT
[15] Colombia Consumer Price Index (YoY) above expectations (6.1%) in August: Actual (6.24%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/colombia-consumer-price-index-yoy-above-expectations-61-in-august-actual-624-202609072300 Published: Mon, 07 Sep 2026 23:00:20 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] Iran situation most pressing political issue for BRICS, Russian diplomat says Time: 2026-09-07T23:42:21.885Z
[2] Iran says Canada is backing US military and economic pressure Time: 2026-09-07T23:11:29.830Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 191 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 12 of 60 normal daily β 20.0% of normal
- Throughput: 4.0% of normal (0.4M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 82
- Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS320 (+540% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost