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2026-W36

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-02 22:01:26 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.4% (3d) | Alignment: 38% (3 aligned, 5 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β€” Moderate divergence β€” several structural signals disagree with price

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED DIX 0.465 above 0.45 but falling β€” institutional buying fading, 0DTE PCR 1.17 put-heavy
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT GEX +6.1B strong suppression
Breadth βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Breadth 51% β€” mixed participation
Energy πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED Energy RISING β€” oil climbing, margin pressure building
growth_expectations πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED Copper/Gold -4.4% growth pessimism Β· real yield 2.44% restrictive
Correlations 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT SPY/VIX -0.74 normal, SPY/DXY -0.23 normal, SPY/TNX -0.35 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.48 elevated
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 15.2 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 144 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.67 dealer stress
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Stagflation score 24 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT USD/JPY 5d -0.3% stable, MOVE 80 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT HY OAS 2.65% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose

Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, correlations, and inflation flash bullish against the risk-on tape β€” 5 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 78/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 5 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $91, watch for margin compression); DIX falling to 0.465 (institutional buying fading); GEX positive at 6.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $764.63 | 50 SMA $754.71 | 200 SMA $710.66 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $755.81
  • QQQ: $708.42 | 50 SMA $710.98 | 200 SMA $656.08 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $707.19
  • IWM: $293.77 | 50 SMA $297.13 | 200 SMA $271.79 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $293.09
  • VIX: 15.20 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.796%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $764.63 38.41 26.9 $755.81 Neutral 0.88
QQQ $708.42 38.20 38.0 $707.19 Neutral 0.86
IWM $293.77 28.88 17.8 $293.09 Neutral 1.26

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 15.20 59.89 17.6 $11.07 Neutral 0.98
TNX 47.96 60.63 31.8 - - -
GLD $402.71 45.07 41.8 $399.42 Neutral 0.81
DXY 99.56 41.16 23.5 - - -
SLV $59.05 46.71 14.2 $42.00 Neutral 1.32

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.465
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.06B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.65% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.99%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.3%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.8%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 46
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 32.3%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 41.7%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Energy 100.0% 0/0
Health Care 77.8% 0/0
Communication Services 73.7% 0/0
Financials 58.8% 0/0
Materials 58.3% 0/0
Consumer Staples 54.5% 0/0
Technology 53.8% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 44.1% 0/0
Industrials 32.8% 0/0
Real Estate 11.5% 0/0
Utilities 10.0% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: RISING
  • WTI Crude: $90.63 (5d: +8.5%)
  • Brent Crude: $95.23 | Spread: $4.60
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.1000/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.6600/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.41/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $65.10
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $10.75

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.738 normal
SPY / DXY -0.235 normal
SPY / TNX -0.354 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.48 elevated

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 79.71
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.19 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 2,949,218.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 3,440,892.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.17 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $488.9B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $767 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $764.63)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
  • Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.80%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.56
  • Growth vs Value: 0.93
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.37% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,780B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,860B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,064B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,701B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,279 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] Data integrity: volatility_regime is STALE (~3h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $141.15 (vs 20d avg 128.27, +2.1Οƒ), floor $75.00 β€” potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.465, GEX +6.1B, HY OAS 2.65%, breadth 51%.
  • [WARNING] SKEW at 144 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [INFO] Screener: WELL β€” promotion-ready (69d on list, HIGH conviction 66/100, regime range_noise, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 47% (n=2736)).
  • [INFO] Screener: WELL β€” new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 66/100, regime range_noise, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 47% (n=2736)). Worth a look.
  • [INFO] Screener: AMCR β€” promotion-ready (92d on list, HIGH conviction 68/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 47% (n=2736)).
  • [INFO] Screener: CME β€” new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 78/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5259)). Worth a look.
  • [INFO] Screener: 1 fresh PRIMED high-conviction name(s) for 2026-09-02 β€” CRWD (conviction 62/100, post_earnings_digestion, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 49% (n=9749)). Calibrated setups only; decision-support, not advice.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: September
  • Average Return: -0.53%
  • Median Return: +0.30%
  • Hit Rate: 55%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
  • Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓0.9% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑2.3% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (↓7.3% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (↑5.3% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓7.0% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (15):

[1] Australian Dollar flat lines above 0.7150 vs USD after Aussie trade data, China PMI URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-flat-lines-above-07150-vs-usd-after-aussie-trade-data-china-pmi-202609030159 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 01:59:52 GMT

[2] China's RatingDog Services PMI jumps to 51.4 in August, vs. 50.6 expected URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/chinas-ratingdog-services-pmi-jumps-to-514-in-august-vs-506-expected-202609030146 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 01:46:21 GMT

[3] China RatingDog Services PMI above forecasts (50.6) in August: Actual (51.4) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-ratingdog-services-pmi-above-forecasts-506-in-august-actual-514-202609030145 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 01:45:16 GMT

[4] Australia Trade Balance (MoM) registered at 1.923M, below expectations (1390M) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-trade-balance-mom-registered-at-1923m-below-expectations-1390m-in-july-202609030133 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 01:33:57 GMT

[5] Australia Imports (MoM) down to -2.5% in July from previous -0.2% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-imports-mom-down-to-25-in-july-from-previous-02-202609030133 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 01:33:51 GMT

[6] Australia Exports (MoM) declined to -3.3% in July from previous 9.6% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-exports-mom-declined-to-33-in-july-from-previous-96-202609030133 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 01:33:45 GMT

[7] Australia's Trade Balance shows a surplus of 1,923M MoM in July, vs. 1,390 expected URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australias-trade-balance-shows-a-surplus-of-1-923m-mom-in-july-vs-1-390-expected-202609030132 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 01:32:33 GMT

[8] Bitcoin holds $63K and $86K range as profit-taking risk builds URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-holds-63k-and-86k-range-as-profit-taking-risk-builds-202609030116 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 01:16:38 GMT

[9] PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7807 vs. 6.7829 previous URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pboc-sets-usd-cny-reference-rate-at-67807-vs-67829-previous-202609030115 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 01:15:29 GMT

[10] British Pound consolidates near three-week low as Fed bets and Iran tensions support USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-consolidates-near-three-week-low-as-fed-bets-and-iran-tensions-support-usd-202609030112 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 01:12:49 GMT

[11] New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price up to -0.4% in August from previous -3.9% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-anz-commodity-price-up-to-04-in-august-from-previous-39-202609030110 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 01:10:37 GMT

[12] Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI came in at 52.5, above expectations (52.3) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-jibun-bank-services-pmi-came-in-at-525-above-expectations-523-in-august-202609030110 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 01:10:15 GMT

[13] Hong Kong SAR S&P Global PMI dipped from previous 51 to 49.5 in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/hong-kong-sar-sp-global-pmi-dipped-from-previous-51-to-495-in-august-202609030109 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 01:09:56 GMT

[14] Euro steadies below 1.1600 as hawkish Fed rhetoric limits gains URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-steadies-below-11600-as-hawkish-fed-rhetoric-limits-gains-202609030051 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 00:51:12 GMT

[15] Ireland AIB Services PMI climbed from previous 55.2 to 55.4 in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ireland-aib-services-pmi-climbed-from-previous-552-to-554-in-august-202609030003 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 00:03:53 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (4):

[BREAKING] [1] Kuwait says air defenses intercepting Iranian missile, drone attacks Time: 2026-09-03T01:44:03.204Z

[2] Australia says Iran's restrictions on Hormuz shipping are unacceptable Time: 2026-09-03T01:30:20.810Z

[3] Iran-backed Houthis fire 10 ballistic missiles at two Yemeni cities Time: 2026-09-03T00:36:11.896Z

[4] Rubio told US embassies to press governments on Iran sanctions drive - Axios Time: 2026-09-02T23:53:45.792Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 186 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 6 of 60 normal daily β€” 10.0% of normal
  • Throughput: 12.1% of normal (1.2M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 465
  • Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 56.7x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS380 (+660% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost