Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-02 21:45:07 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.4% (3d) | Alignment: 38% (3 aligned, 5 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.465 above 0.45 but falling β institutional buying fading, 0DTE PCR 1.17 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +6.1B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 51% β mixed participation |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -4.4% growth pessimism Β· real yield 2.44% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.74 normal, SPY/DXY -0.23 normal, SPY/TNX -0.35 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.48 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.2 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 144 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.67 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 24 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -0.3% stable, MOVE 80 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.65% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose |
Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, correlations, and inflation flash bullish against the risk-on tape β 5 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 78/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 5 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $91, watch for margin compression); DIX falling to 0.465 (institutional buying fading); GEX positive at 6.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $764.63 | 50 SMA $754.71 | 200 SMA $710.66 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $755.81
- QQQ: $708.42 | 50 SMA $710.98 | 200 SMA $656.08 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $707.19
- IWM: $293.77 | 50 SMA $297.13 | 200 SMA $271.79 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $293.09
- VIX: 15.20 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.796%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $764.63 | 38.41 | 26.9 | $755.81 | Neutral | 0.88 |
| QQQ | $708.42 | 38.20 | 38.0 | $707.19 | Neutral | 0.86 |
| IWM | $293.77 | 28.88 | 17.8 | $293.09 | Neutral | 1.26 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.20 | 59.89 | 17.6 | $11.07 | Neutral | 0.98 |
| TNX | 47.96 | 60.63 | 31.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $402.71 | 45.07 | 41.8 | $399.42 | Neutral | 0.81 |
| DXY | 99.56 | 41.16 | 23.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $59.05 | 46.71 | 14.2 | $42.00 | Neutral | 1.32 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.465
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.06B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.65% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.3%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.8%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 46
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.3%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.7%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 77.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 73.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 58.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 58.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 54.5% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 44.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 32.8% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 11.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $90.63 (5d: +8.5%)
- Brent Crude: $95.23 | Spread: $4.60
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1000/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.6600/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.41/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $65.10
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.75
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.738 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.235 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.354 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.48 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 79.71
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.19 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,949,218.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,440,892.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.17 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $488.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $767 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $764.63)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.80%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.56
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.37% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,780B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,860B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,061B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,701B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,302 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $141.15 (vs 20d avg 128.27, +2.1Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.465, GEX +6.1B, HY OAS 2.65%, breadth 51%.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 144 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [INFO] Screener: WELL β promotion-ready (69d on list, HIGH conviction 66/100, regime range_noise, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 47% (n=2736)).
- [INFO] Screener: WELL β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 66/100, regime range_noise, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 47% (n=2736)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: AMCR β promotion-ready (92d on list, HIGH conviction 68/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 47% (n=2736)).
- [INFO] Screener: CME β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 78/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5259)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: 1 fresh PRIMED high-conviction name(s) for 2026-09-02 β CRWD (conviction 62/100, post_earnings_digestion, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 49% (n=9749)). Calibrated setups only; decision-support, not advice.
- [INFO] Screener: HPQ β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 65/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 49% (n=9749)). Worth a look.
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.53%
- Median Return: +0.30%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β7.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (12):
[1] US President Donald Trump: Renewed campaign against Iran will not continue for too long URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-president-donald-trump-renewed-campaign-against-iran-will-not-continue-for-too-long-202609022355 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 23:55:54 GMT
[2] Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks: Β₯35.8B (August 28) vs Β₯-764.1B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-foreign-investment-in-japan-stocks-y358b-august-28-vs-y-7641b-202609022351 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 23:51:07 GMT
[3] Japan Foreign Bond Investment climbed from previous Β₯-1978.4B to Β₯-824B in August 28 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-foreign-bond-investment-climbed-from-previous-y-19784b-to-y-824b-in-august-28-202609022350 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 23:50:59 GMT
[4] The Australian Dollar's thirteen-year high is a New Zealand story URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-australian-dollars-thirteen-year-high-is-a-new-zealand-story-202609022330 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 23:30:00 GMT
[5] Gold rebounds above $4,350 as US Dollar, Treasury yields slip URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-rebounds-above-4-350-as-us-dollar-treasury-yields-slip-202609022329 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 23:29:32 GMT
[6] Australia S&P Global Services PMI registered at 53.2 above expectations (52.9) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-sp-global-services-pmi-registered-at-532-above-expectations-529-in-august-202609022321 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 23:21:04 GMT
[7] Australia S&P Global Composite PMI above expectations (52.5) in August: Actual (52.7) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-sp-global-composite-pmi-above-expectations-525-in-august-actual-527-202609022320 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 23:20:58 GMT
[8] GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Sellers eye 214.00 after SMA break URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-jpy-price-forecast-sellers-eye-21400-after-sma-break-202609022248 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 22:48:38 GMT
[9] The New Zealand Dollar sells the hike it asked for URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-new-zealand-dollar-sells-the-hike-it-asked-for-202609022247 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 22:47:13 GMT
[10] New Zealand Terms of Trade Index came in at -9% below forecasts (-2.2%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-terms-of-trade-index-came-in-at-9-below-forecasts-22-in-2q-202609022245 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 22:45:02 GMT
[11] Australian Dollar rises as soft US jobs, GDP beat lift AUD, PMIs ahead URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-rises-as-soft-us-jobs-gdp-beat-lift-aud-pmis-ahead-202609022238 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 22:38:53 GMT
[12] Intervention buys the Japanese Yen less ground every time URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/intervention-buys-the-japanese-yen-less-ground-every-time-202609022222 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 22:22:52 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (3):
[1] Saudi crude exports hit nine-year low amid Hormuz tensions - Bloomberg Time: 2026-09-02T23:34:51.348Z
[2] Iran criticizes UNICEF over lack of response to deaths of Iranian children Time: 2026-09-02T23:07:52.603Z
[3] Iran-backed armed group leader threatens US troops in Iraq Time: 2026-09-02T22:12:25.032Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 186 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 9 of 60 normal daily β 15.0% of normal
- Throughput: 40.0% of normal (4.1M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 437
- Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS475 (+850% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $8.5 billion/day economic cost